Posted on 09/26/2025 9:11:20 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
The Trump Department of War is drawing up plans for kinetic operations against drug traffickers inside Venezuela, according to a thinly sourced NBC News story. Those strikes could begin in a "matter of weeks." The strikes would be primarily carried out by drones and would target drug cartel members and leadership, as well as drug labs.
Putting aside the brittleness of the story, there are some considerations that move it from the "totally freakin unlikely" category to "slightly plausible." First, a disclaimer. The U.S. military has plans for just about any contingency. This dates back to at least the 1930s, when the U.S. developed a series of color-coded war plans that envisioned conflicts with Great Britain, Australia, and China, as well as with Germany and Japan. This kind of plan is useful. For instance, OPLAN 1002 envisioned countering a Soviet strike into central Iran. Norman Schwartzkopf took the same basic plan as a starting point for the First Gulf War because the logistics were essentially the same. A war plan focused on Venezuelan cartels would work equally well for Colombian, Central American, or Mexican cartels. So just because a plan is being developed, it doesn't follow that anything else will happen.
The Plus Factors
President Trump wants Nicolás Maduro gone. In his UN speech, this is what Trump had to say: "MS-13 and Tren de Aragua. Tren de Aragua is from Venezuela, by the way. Such organizations torture, maim, mutilate and murder with impunity. They're the enemies of all humanity. For this reason, we've recently begun using the supreme power of the United States military to destroy Venezuelan terrorists and trafficking networks led by Nicolas Maduro to every terrorist thug smuggling poisonous drugs into the United States of America."
The FBI has labeled Tren de Aragua as an arm of the Venezuelan government, and the U.S. has placed a $50 million bounty on Maduro.
In August, Trump signed a still-secret order authorizing the use of military force against drug smugglers. Since then, Trump has authorized the sinking of at least four Venezuelan drug-running ships.
READ:
Shots Fired! The US Military Sinks a Venezuelan Drug Runner (Updated) – RedState
Watch As US Forces Delete a Venezuelan Drug-Trafficking Boat – RedState
Watch: Venezuelan Drug Boats - and Then There Were Four – RedState
The new National Defense Strategy is reportedly a very inward-looking document, focusing on homeland and hemispheric defense to the exclusion of Europe and China. A Maduro government playing footsie with Russia and China is directly opposed to that strategy.
There has been a buildup of U.S. military forces in the Caribbean over the last two months; see Trump Sends the Navy, Marines Down the Venezuelan Coast - Here's Why – RedState. This deployment includes "[t]he Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group — including the U.S.S. San Antonio, the U.S.S. Iwo Jima and the U.S.S. Fort Lauderdale, carrying 4,500 service members, sailors — has been steaming near Puerto Rico. So has the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit, with 2,200 Marines."
Four Arleigh Burke-class Aegis guided-missile destroyers have recently joined that force.
The U.S. has moved a fourth guided-missile destroyer into the U.S. Southern Command area of responsibility. With the arrival of USS Stockdale (DDG 106) in Panama yesterday, at least 10 U.S. Navy warships (approx. 13% of ships currently deployed) are now on station in the region.
pic.twitter.com/xG3zvfox0K— Ian Ellis (@ianellisjones) September 21, 2025
Also heading south are Special Operations Forces:
The clandestine deployment of elite U.S. Special Operations forces to the Caribbean suggests that strikes or commando raids inside Venezuela itself may be in the works.
https://t.co/YwtqjKBlrZ— Eric Schmitt (@EricSchmittNYT) September 20, 2025
This is quite possibly the 2d Ranger Battalion from Joint Base Lewis-McChord, Washington.
Interesting, another C-17 headed to Puerto Rico this AM. This time from JB Lewis–McChord, home to 2nd Ranger Battalion (light infantry special operations forces designed for airfield/infrastructure seizure). A lot of stuff keeps arriving around #Venezuela.
pic.twitter.com/Rnio7BwQVk— Tom Rogan (@TomRtweets) September 8, 2025
If a decision were made to force an entry into Venezuela, then a Ranger Battalion would be the logical choice to seize an airfield, as was done in Grenada and Panama. There are definitely enough aircraft moving to the region to support such an operation.
‼️‼️‼️🇺🇲🇻🇪 BREAKING - The Pentagon is steadily reinforcing its presence in the Caribbean region. Over the past 24 hours, under Trump’s orders, multiple U.S. Air Force assets have arrived in Puerto Rico, including:
5 × C-17A Globemaster III – heavy strategic airlifters for troops… pic.twitter.com/nPSMpPmhkb— NSTRIKE (@NSTRIKE1231) September 26, 2025
Also spotted is this item:
Satellite imagery analyzed by MT Anderson shows a vessel matching the U.S. MV Ocean Trader southwest of St. Kitts. The special operations mothership, last seen near Bahrain in May, appears linked to U.S. deployments in Venezuela reported by the New York Times on Sept. 20. U.S. Sept. 20. U.S. forces in the region now total 4,500.
pic.twitter.com/lfHfZgzIZG— SOFX (@SOFXnetwork) September 24, 2025
This would indicate the presence of at least a SEAL platoon.
The Venezuelans are taking the threat seriously.
Venezuelan ‘special forces’ ready for battle…what a tragic farce👇🏻 pic.twitter.com/07ko3X8DaF— Fernando Amandi Sr.🌐 (@FernandoAmandi) September 20, 2025
Venezuelans, young and old, are taking up arms in readiness for a U.S. invasion.
Their oath is clear: Venezuela’s oil belongs to Venezuelans, and only them.
pic.twitter.com/njuwq6mA1c— 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗔𝗳𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗠𝗼𝗴𝘂𝗹 (@DukeOfSavannah) September 26, 2025
So forces are in position to take out anything the TdA has and thoroughly thump whatever forces Venezuela might muster.
But it is a huge leap from "can" to "will."
I think Trump is placing psychological pressure on Maduro, and that seems to be working on a superficial level.
NEW: Venezuelan President Maduro offered to help Trump’s administration hunt leaders of the Tren de Aragua gang as part of an effort to restart talks with Washington.
Source: Bloomberg
pic.twitter.com/mW2qOXI0s3— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 26, 2025
No one believes he's changed, even if they think he might throw his TdA homies under the bus.
Earlier this month Maduro sent a letter to Trump about opening a dialogue, according to a social media post by the Venezuelan government. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed Trump received the letter but condemned it.
“Frankly, I think there were a lot of lies that were repeated by Maduro in that letter, and the administration’s position on Venezuela has not changed,” Leavitt said at a White House press briefing Monday. “We view the Maduro regime as illegitimate, and the president has clearly shown that he’s willing to use any and all means necessary to stop the illegal trafficking of deadly drugs from the Venezuelan regime into the United States of America.”
The real prize is prying Venezuela's elites away from Maduro and letting them do the heavy lifting of replacing him. Ending the "temporary protected status" of 600,000 Venezuelans in the U.S. obviously figures into this scheme; see Despite Supreme Court Stay, Judge Blocks Trump Admin From Revoking TPS for Thousands of Venezuelans – RedState. There is no better way to destabilize Maduro than a massive influx of very pissed off expatriates who aren't happy with Maduro's rule.
Personally, and I stand ready to be proven wrong on this, I don't think military strikes are in the cards. Trump won the election by promising to end "forever wars," not by starting them. Absent a full-scale invasion of Venezuela and the ensuing insurgency, there is no way to suppress the TdA, as they are basically part of the regime. I don't believe there is the Congressional or domestic political support to do that. It could happen, but I'd put the likelihood as extremely low.
>> Venezuelans, young and old, are taking up arms in readiness for a U.S. invasion.
ROFL! Yeah right.
Betcha they handed out the (unloaded) weapons to the carefully selected “citizens” — did the photo-op — and then immediately took the weapons back from the shills.
I’m going to vomit if I hear the word ‘kinetic’ again.
“Thinly sourced” NBC News report. In other words, they made it up.
I wonder how much this latest foray is costing. IIRC, I read it’s already cost a billion dollars.
We’re paying for our military anyway. We might as well move it around and see what happens. Who knows? Maybe the cartels, or Russians, or Cubans or Iranians will blink and do something unexpected, like overthrow Maduro, or maybe the army there will want to change how things are run. Maybe Maduro will be convinced by his allies to invade Guyana. Any number of things could happen.
Granny get yer gun!
Those aren’t the AK-103s that the comical video showed. I remember, years ago, Venezuels bought a lot of rifles from Russia. Apparrntly the fire control parts were missing. They look like Romanian contract rifles. And some Czech Vz-58s. No magazines, though.
I heard rumors that we have contingency plans to attack every country on earth.
“according to a thinly sourced NBC News story.”
I stopped reading right there. Just what is “thinly sourced”? Quite a laughable term that equates to something made up.
Whatever the cost, Venezuela’s costs will be greater.
Keep the US ships offshore and make “feint” every week.
Notice that the rifles have no ammunition clips.
“Notice that the rifles have no ammunition clips.”
MAGAzines, please!
I know where you can but new rifles cheap, never been fired and only dropped once.
Hahaha. There are more urinalists in that picture of the civilians holding guns than civilians.
A couple cruise missiles to take out Venezuelas refineries and they are done. There will be no resupplies by boat, there will be no resupplies through the jungles. How Venezuela WILL strike back is giving the go to the Venezuelan sleeper cells Biden brought in.
I have no beef with Venezuela.
I remember vids of immaculately coifed Venezuelans wearing stylish clothes, perfectly pressed, with nary a stain on their whites protesting the lack of water.
It was so fake.
Beef?
Venezuela?
ICWYDT...
Now that the Department (of Defense) has been re-named for past wars that we WON, I’d expect THIS action is series.
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