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AP analysis shows Texas and California redistricting efforts could mess with rare partisan balance
AP News ^ | Updated 8:59 AM CDT, August 22, 2025 | DAVID A. LIEB

Posted on 08/22/2025 9:34:16 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum

As Texas Republicans and California Democrats redraw U.S. House districts to their advantage ahead of next year’s elections, they’re potentially disrupting a rare partisan balance in American politics.

The 220-215 majority that Republicans won over Democrats in last year’s elections almost perfectly aligns with the share of the vote the two parties received in districts across the U.S., according to an Associated Press analysis. Although the overall outcome was close to neutral, the AP’s analysis shows that Democrats and Republicans each benefited from advantages in particular states.

The AP used a mathematical analysis designed to measure how many more U.S. House seats political parties won in each state beyond what would have been expected from the share of the vote they received. The analysis showed a significant political tilt in one-third of the states’ congressional districts, with either Democrats or Republicans winning at least one more seat than expected.

Partisan advantage in 2024 U.S. House elections

Republicans won a 220-215 U.S House majority over Democrats in 2024. That aligned with the average partisan vote in districts nationwide. But parties still had an advantage in some states, where they won more seats than expected based on their share of the vote.

Where do Democrats hold the biggest edge?

In California, Democrats won 43 of the 52 seats last year — about six more seats than would have been expected based on the average share of the vote for U.S. House candidates of each party. That was the biggest gain among all states.

At the urging of Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, California lawmakers on Thursday approved a plan to redraw the district lines created by an independent citizens commission after the 2020 census. Their goal is to give Democrats a better shot at winning five...

(Excerpt) Read more at apnews.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: california
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AP analysis shows Texas and California redistricting efforts could mess with rare partisan balance

That's the whole idea.

1 posted on 08/22/2025 9:34:16 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

In other words, the uniparty is broken. Sounds good to me.


2 posted on 08/22/2025 9:37:22 AM PDT by WarlordBK
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Actually, the Democrats have been using redistricting using racial & now illegals as an excuse to capture more seats. Lo and behold, it is all done on a partisan basis. It’s also far from being a rare occurrence as well. AP, is a BS source for the truth.


3 posted on 08/22/2025 9:38:10 AM PDT by Robert DeLong
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
Commiefornia demonicRATS already hold a 43 to 9 advantage in The House. Now they want it to be 48 to 4.

Trump got 38% of the vote in Commiefornia.

Analize that Ape Pee.

4 posted on 08/22/2025 9:38:49 AM PDT by Texas Eagle ("Throw me to the wolves and I'll return leading the pack"- Donald J. Trump)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

I suspect the CA jerrymander will backfire and result in a pickup of 1 Republican seat in CA.

They are incompetent in all things.


5 posted on 08/22/2025 9:39:58 AM PDT by TheThirdRuffian (Orange is the new brown)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

What the AP won’t admit is, the Dems have been gerrymandering to their benefit for decades and have squeezed all the blood out of that turnip they can, whereas the Republicans are just getting started.

The only question is: Will they actually follow suit?


6 posted on 08/22/2025 9:40:21 AM PDT by bigbob (If thou doth eff around, thou wilt findeth out)
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To: Texas Eagle

43 to 9

48 to 4

DAVID A. LIAR

The urinalist who doesn’t actually even know the definition of the word

Balance


7 posted on 08/22/2025 9:46:00 AM PDT by cuz1961
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

It’s only cheating if it hurts dimocrats!


8 posted on 08/22/2025 9:46:22 AM PDT by 100%FEDUP
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Newsom and California going for One Party Rule which means robbing the taxpayers that are left in the state


9 posted on 08/22/2025 9:50:35 AM PDT by butlerweave
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

An article on gerrymandering that doesn’t talk about Illinois’s ridiculous map shouldn’t have the word balance in the headline.


10 posted on 08/22/2025 9:55:13 AM PDT by BuchananBrigadeTrumpFan (If in doubt, it's probably sarcasm)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

If the deluded leftist children at AP are unhappy it must be a good thing.


11 posted on 08/22/2025 10:02:57 AM PDT by gibsonguy ( )
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
a rare partisan balance

pay no attention to those 10+/- states with ZERO R representatives

12 posted on 08/22/2025 10:14:14 AM PDT by goo goo g'joob (When honest people say what's true, calmly and without embarrassment, they become powerful)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

The Ass. Press. They’re all goofy.


13 posted on 08/22/2025 10:18:03 AM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (You can vote your way into socialist communism, but you will have to shoot your way out.)
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To: goo goo g'joob

Roughly the same as the count with no Dem representation.


14 posted on 08/22/2025 10:19:48 AM PDT by Owen
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To: Owen

In terms of correct, using the Trump vote as determinant, in a state or nationally, for seat allocation, is likely shaky.

The correct measure would be the total votes for House candidates in a state and how that aligns with seat count.


15 posted on 08/22/2025 10:24:20 AM PDT by Owen
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

L0L


16 posted on 08/22/2025 10:35:00 AM PDT by Liberty Valance (Keep a Simple Manner for a Happy Life :o)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Baaaawwwaaaahhhh...


17 posted on 08/22/2025 10:39:04 AM PDT by goodnesswins (Democracy to Demo rats is stealing other peoples money for their use, no matter how idiotic)
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To: goo goo g'joob

After 2024 elections:

12 states have no Democrat representatives; 3 of those have only 1 representative - (most OK 5 reps)

7 states have no Republican representatives; 1 of those has only 1 representative - (most MA 9 reps)


18 posted on 08/22/2025 10:39:17 AM PDT by jjotto ("...saith the LORD: yet I loved Jacob, And I hated Esau...")
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To: Texas Eagle

This is why there are times when I get a bit pissed off at some California bashing. More people voted for President Trump in this state than in any other besides Texas and Florida.

And the Republican party is the one that stabbed us in the back by opening the borders, ensuring that the Democrats would get control. And Yes, I am looking at a couple of Republican Presidents who sold us down the path to slavery.


19 posted on 08/22/2025 11:25:05 AM PDT by Aeneas2112 (Sometimes by losing a battle you find a new waA veryh y to win the war. Donald Trump)
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To: Texas Eagle

Well, there’s that little matter of the two week period to “cure” ballots after the election. They cured them all right, and they stole 4-5 seats in CA


20 posted on 08/22/2025 12:42:09 PM PDT by j.havenfarm (24 years on Free Republic, 12/10/24! More than 10,500 replies and still not shutting up!)
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