Posted on 10/29/2024 12:40:29 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
What about the house? It has been my contention from the start that the replacement of Joe Biden had nothing to do with the White House, the smart dems have known from the start that the WH was lost this cycle, and that the only reason they finally got rid of Biden was because it became obvious defending him would cost the Democrats down ballot races.
So, if Trump is on his way to a White House victory, and it appears at that he is. And the Senate is almost certainly going Republican as well, that leaves the house.
...
Republicans will take the House and Senate.
The media isn’t mentioning the house and senate for a reason... It’s already over. The Republicans will take both on Trump’s coattails.
We may not know for weeks who controls the House.
Considering how slow some states are saying their vote count is going to be, considering the narrow GOP margin in the House right now, there could easily be a dozen House seats coast to coast that will be undecided. And those seats could determine which party is in control.
Republicans will have all three, Democrats will throw monkey wrenches, and Republucand will waste the opportunity bigly.
If you read the article, you will see there is a strong correlation in presidential years, whichever party wins the popular vote for the presidency has about a 90% chance of gaining seats in the house. Not necessarily takes control fo the house, but at least gains seats in the house.
If Trump wins the national popular vote and it isn’t by an insanely slim margin, odds the Democrats gain seats in the house based on historical trends is only 10% propbability.
(The English teacher in me says, “Turn this back in after you correct all errors.”)
Whose house?
The House is gone IMO.
I will be shocked if there is a GOP majority in January.
Regarding the House, trump has a Secret. He and Mike Johnson know.
Let’s hope so as we need all three to try and turn the tide back to restoring our freedoms and liberties in the short time they will have.
However your viewpoint is more likely to prevail, absent a last-minute "red wave" (even a small one), but at this point NOTHING in this election is certain except the GOP picking up the Senate seat in West Virginia, which has nothing to do with the House.
Facts:
Of the 40 most "tossup" House districts, Republicans must defend 26; Democrats only 14. I'll be happy to provide a list.
Or anyone who is really interested in the details can just click here.
Democrats are winning the $$$ battle in 30 of the 40.
Only SIX of the 40 are in states which Trump is likely to win. Eleven are in swing states that could go either way; 23 are in states Trump is highly likely to LOSE.
Anyone can say "yeah, but....", and things still could go either way, but those 40 (to at most 65 or so) coin flips better tilt solidly to the right if we want to avoid Speaker Hakeem Homeboy declaring "Trump impeachment begins on Day One", assuming Trump wins enough of HIS coin-flip states.
Unfortunately it won’t make any difference. If Trump is in office the Republicans will be proxy Democrats. The MIC establishment GOP hates Trump as much as the left does.
Based on historical behaviors odds are if Trump wins the popular vote by a reasonable amount, the odds are 90% that Republicans gain house seats.
Of course if Trump loses the popular vote odds are 90% the dems gain seats.
Prepare to be shocked. Bigly.
But the federal government is a deep-seated disaster. Expect a big turnover in 2026.
The only thing the People hate worse than Democrats - is Republicans.
Johnson won’t sabotage conservatives like like McCarthy did.
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