But we on FreeRepublic need to put down the Eeyores and focus on the First 100 Days of TrumpII: the Great Exodus of 50M mojados; the immediate draining of the Swamp into the Atlantic; and, yes, the professional pursuit of retribution.
Posted on 10/26/2024 9:28:45 AM PDT by cgbg
74% of Trump supporters say they’ll vote in person, including 48% who say they will do so on Election Day (26% say they will vote early in person).
By contrast, 52% of Harris supporters say they plan to vote in person (29% on Election Day, 23% early). 39% of Harris supporters expect to vote absentee or by mail, while just 17% of Trump supporters expect to use this method.
(Excerpt) Read more at pewresearch.org ...
According to this article 48% of Trump supporters say they will vote in person on election day compared to 29% of Harris supporters.
That means we should be expected to make major gains on Election Day. If we tied or ahead (by party registration) in combined early and mail-in voting that means we will get much better turnout for our side than the Democrats.
Wow and the GOP is already outperforming on early voting. #Landslide
I think even Facebook knows it as they stopped sending my account to the Gulag after the last debate. In 2020 they permanently banned both of my accounts for “bullying Harris and Biden”.
This year the day of the debates they sent me to the gulag for 1 week (but didn’t put a strike on my account or remove anything...I was just magically in the gulag with no reason given and I couldn’t even use FB messenger).
So they stopped because they know Trump will win and they are hoping to keep Trump from coming after them.
Exactly.
I was totally stunned by this article.
I knew things were going reasonably well but this suggests a true popular vote blowout.
I think all the newspapers failing to endorse is a signal that they will not go through the steal this time. It would be way too obvious if they tried.
In 2020 they made it close enough to get away with it. That surely cannot be the case this time around.
But we on FreeRepublic need to put down the Eeyores and focus on the First 100 Days of TrumpII: the Great Exodus of 50M mojados; the immediate draining of the Swamp into the Atlantic; and, yes, the professional pursuit of retribution.
Early voting started in NJ today. They were lined up outside at the opening. I’m pretty sure nobody I saw in line were voting for the ho or the pedo.
Did you see the NY Slimes endorsement? Take a barf bag! Lol
Well it is the New York Times.
I think the Pew article shows the poll numbers understate Trump strength.
Just some basic number crunching so we can follow the early voting and mail in voting patterns to evaluate this.
Basic assumption 1: Total early voting and mail in voting turns out to be even Republican and Democrat
Basic assumption 2: Pew is correct and 48% of Trump supporters vote on election day and 29% of Harris supporters vote on election day.
That means 19% Trump margin x 40% = Five percent Trump margin on election day.
This is compared to the national polling showing a range of Harris +1 or +2 to Trump +1 or +2.
If the assumptions are close and the Pew poll is correct then the national polls are understating President Trump’s strength by five percentage points.
Right. Based on the way both campaigns are acting, you know their internal numbers are showing the same thing.
That is why the RATs are panicked.
They need a big lead heading into election day if they are going to win, and they simply do not have it.
This model allows us to adjust the figures based on early voting totals we get—so we can understand what is happening on the ground.
We could not do that accurately without this new data.
According to National Review, it appears that 43% of the early vote are cast by registered Democrats, 35% by registered Republicans, and 23% are cast by others (registered third party or decline to state party preference). I heard from ABC (I think) that women outnumber men in early voting by 10 points.
To make the math simple, I will say the early vote has 55 voting for Harris, 45 voting for Trump. If it is true that 48% of Trump voters and 23% of Harris voters will vote on election day, then (48/52)*45 = 41.5 (to be conservative I will lower this to 41) will vote for Trump on election day.
(23/77)*55 = 16.4 will vote for Harris on election day.
I think it is too optimistic to say 41+45 = 86 will vote for Trump and 55 + 16 = 71 will vote for Harris.
I’m waiting on line here in Riverhead NY to vote and the line is huge, at least 2 hour wait. Good sign or not? I can’t picture people willing to wait on line this long to vote for junkie Jezebel. “And what has been, by what has been, unburdened by time that is time of now tomorrow” Oh out of my way, i gotta vote for her”
We only know those who have voted early so far.
Those figures will be updated daily between now and election day.
No estimates are needed—we just can collect the data and plug it into the Pew formula.
Each day we will get a clearer picture.
I read Pew wrong. So it’s 29% of Harris plan to vote on election day. So (29/71)*55 = 22.46 will vote for Harris on election day. So my simple example predicts 86 for Trump and 77 for Harris. Trump wins popular vote 53% to 47%, which in my opinion is too optimistic.
Early voting in Michigan is really not a thing. Until the Covid fiasco where the corrupt Democrat (but I repeat myself) MI Secretary of State mass mailed out ballots to everyone without request, it was almost impossible to get an absentee ballot unless you were a Senior or in the military or had a disability.
Sure, but how about the remaining days of Election Month?
One day at a time, one day at a time....
It is too early to tell for sure whether it is too optimistic.
What we have is a model we can use—if the model is correct here is what we get:
10% Democratic margin in early voting/mail in voting = Popular vote tie
8% margin = 1% Trump popular vote win
6% margin = 2% Trump popular vote win
4% margin = 3% Trump popular vote win
2% margin = 4% Trump popular vote win
Dead even = 5% Trump popular vote win
etc.
Then we watch the real early voting results and see where we are.
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