Escalation with Iran could be risky: Israel is more vulnerable than it seems

The Guardian ^ | 10/5/24 | Andrew Roth

[hardspunned]

In the aftermath of Iran’s attack on Israel on Tuesday night, Israeli officials claimed their defences had stood firm. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said Iran had launched more than 180 missiles, but few details about the damage were released and the US’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said the attack “appears to have been defeated and ineffective”. But as Israel prepares its retaliation, analysts believe those initial reports could have been misleading – and could change the calculus of Israel’s response if it fears getting into a bout of protracted “missile ping-pong” with Iran, especially should Tehran choose softer targets in the future.

Satellite and social media footage has shown missile after missile striking the Nevatim airbase in the Negev desert, and setting off at least some secondary explosions, indicating that despite the highly touted effectiveness of Israel’s Iron Dome and Arrow air defences, Iran’s strikes were more effective than had been previously admitted. Experts who analysed the footage noted at least 32 direct hits on the airbase. None appeared to have caused major damage, but some landed close to hangars that house Israel’s F-35 jets, among the country’s most prized military assets. While those missiles did not appear to hit planes on the ground, they would nonetheless have a deadly effect if fired at a city such as Tel Aviv, or if directed at other high-value targets such as the Bazan Group’s oil refineries near Haifa – potentially creating an ecological disaster next to a big Israeli city.

[hardspunned]

I hate to be the skunk at the garden party but attacking Iranian sites won’t be nearly as easy as it was before the Russian presence.

“Iran set to receive Russian Su-35 fighter jets amid deepening cooperation

The strengthening ties between Iran and Russia have drawn scrutiny from the international community, particularly the United States

i24NEWS i24NEWS 3 min read April 21, 2024 at 12:44 AM”

How many, with their pilots and support staff, have been deployed to Iran? We know the Russians have supplied S300 and S400 (the best in the world) air defense systems to Iran.

Israel needs to stick to Lebanon as the Iranians have shown they will allow any Israeli atrocity in Gaza, the West Bank or Lebanon. If they retaliate against Iran I fear the Iranians will begin doing what they haven’t done yet, indiscriminately attacking Israeli targets in Israeli cities.

[Bob434]

[[Israel is more vulnerable than it seems]]

Yeah Andrew, because it’s not like they have ... GOD on their side or anything! /s - get a clue andrew

[SaveFerris]

IF this is Ezekiel 38 rest assured that God WILL prevail. It’s guaranteed because it is ALREADY written.

BUT it will shake the region and perhaps part of the world (though I think it’s still around that area).

Time will tell.

Nevertheless, the world 🌎🌍 is experiencing significant shocks.

1 Peter 4:7
New International Version

7 The end of all things is near.
Therefore be alert
and of sober mind
so that you may pray.

https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=1%20Peter%204%3A7&version=NIV

[SaveFerris]

The Guardian has always been a Leftist anti-Israel rag, as you know.

[2Dreamin]

So let me get this straight. Iran launches 181 abm’s at Israel and not one Israeli is killed. Now you put this tripe out here that they should be scared of big bad Russia. The country that cannot put Ukraine down. Th e God of Abraham. Isaac, and Jacob will protect Israel and for this part annihilate Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. Tonight is the night.

[SaveFerris]

1 Peter 4:7
New King James Version

Serving for God’s Glory

7 But the end of all things is at hand;
therefore be serious
and watchful in your prayers.

https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=1%20Peter%204%3A7&version=NKJV

1 Peter 4:7
21st Century King James Version

7 But the end of all things is at hand:
be ye therefore sober
and watch unto prayer.

https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=1%20Peter%204%3A7&version=KJ21

[shotgun]

Don’t tbe Iranian pilots need 1 year of flight training to jump from F4s and F14s to modern SU35s?

[WeaslesRippedMyFlesh]

Gosh, thanks Andy.

[hinckley buzzard]

Wishful thinking from the Guardian.

[ryderann]

“...but attacking Iranian sites won’t be nearly as easy as it was before the Russian presence.”

Russian pilots (Soviets) flew and fought in Korea, and most likely Vietnam.

[Pete Dovgan]

Art of war.

Look weak when you are strong
Look strong when you are weak

[Mr. Mojo]

The reflexively anti-Israel Guardian is engaged in wishful thinking here. The mullahs are cowering, and for good reason. Doubtful they’ll be in power much longer.

As far as Iran getting Russian hardware, Israel has been making it look primitive by comparison for decades, mostly in Syria and Lebanon. And anyway, by the time they receive it and complete training it’ll be too late.

[Da Coyote]

Where does the Guardian staff hide all their copies of “Das Kapital”, the Koran, and “How to Successfully Lie to the Masses”?

[hardspunned]

You should watch this short clip by Ted Postal of MIT. From analysis of the 32 missile strikes at Nevatim he puts the particular ballistic missile used as having an accuracy of 2 km. This sucks for hardened targets but for terrorizing cities (what this is evolving into), it’s fine.

We will probably find out how accurate the missiles supplied to Iran by Russia, China and NORK are soon enough unfortunately.

https://youtu.be/izJFzWUVmHU?si=oDdIkWYf8f1auzjA

[AndyJackson]

Well, maybe the Harris regime should not have used taxpayer dollars to fund Iran to escalate the matter in the first place or help pay for Russian fighters.

[hardspunned]

You should watch this short clip by Ted Postal of MIT. From analysis of the 32 missile strikes at Nevatim he puts the particular ballistic missile used as having an accuracy of 2 km. This sucks for hardened targets but for terrorizing cities (what this is evolving into), it’s fine.

We will probably find out how accurate the missiles supplied to Iran by Russia, China and NORK are soon enough unfortunately.

https://youtu.be/izJFzWUVmHU?si=oDdIkWYf8f1auzjA

[The Sons of Liberty]

Riskier than allowing a bunch of insane camel jocks get a NUKE?

[SaveFerris]

(as having an accuracy of 2 km.)

I can believe it

I’ll take a look later - about to get up to go to church with some friends

🛐🙏✝️

[EQAndyBuzz]

” Now you put this tripe out here that they should be scared of big bad Russia.”

Syria has S300/S400 air defense systems. Israel, time and time again have defeated those systems. Those SU-35 Russian jets, Iranians cannot fly them which means Russian pilots will have to operate them and even so, they still won’t see the F35’s until the air to air missiles hit them.

What Israel doesn’t have to fear is a land war. Intel satellites track movement and Israel has some of the best HUMINT on the planet. That’s how they are systematically killing high level terrorists. What Israel does have on its side is time. Iran has to be on high alert waiting on the Israeli’s response. None will come before the end of the Jewish high holidays.

[hardspunned]

Of course, you are right. We shouldn’t be borrowing and giving our money to anyone. Why did the U.S. taxpayer borrow $8billion this week to give to Israel?

Every single American owes slightly over $100,000 on our debt. The average share of individual Israelis of Israel’s national debt, $10,000!!!!

Let them borrow their own damned money. My two year grandson is tapped out at $100,000!