[thegagline]

Fox polling always leans heavily left. Heavily.

Really? I just read the 19 pages of Fox poll results and methodology and it looks like 42% of those polled were Democrats and 43% were Republicans.

[Scott from the Left Coast]

They’ve been heavily left wing for at least two decades…there are more ways to skew samples than just party ID…if we even believe what they state to begin with.

[Olog-hai]

LOL, nonsequitur. That can mean 85 percent raging liberals.

[Owen]

15% Independents? Less than that given Greens and Libertarian.

This is highly questionable. 43/42 for R/D is not even remotely useful with a presumption of 15% Independents.

I would guess, I will get around to going back to look, but I would guess this is not the same turnout model used in August. Nobody would allow their product to remain 15% Independent.

Registered vs Likely means nothing nowadays. VBM erased that.

They must have had a very tiny Hispanic sample to get that large a swing.

I do see problems with these guys, and a 3% move is MOE territory, and national, with Calif and NY dominating.

Get this through your heads FR . . . Trump is not going to win the Popular Vote with those enormous leads for Harris in Calif and NY. And whoever above it was that said 2% loses is correct. Because of the overconcentration in those two states.

[tired&retired]

That leaves only 15% for Independents. Aren’t they the largest group?

They must have used Cheney’s phone contacts to find Republicans to poll.

[BroJoeK]

Scott from the Left Coast: "Fox polling always leans heavily left. Heavily."

thegagline: "Really? I just read the 19 pages of Fox poll results and methodology and it looks like 42% of those polled were Democrats and 43% were Republicans."

Fox does use a left-leaning pollster, estimated as skewing roughly 2% towards Harris, which means Fox is actually calling the popular vote "even" as of today.

More conservative pollsters still give Trump the edge:

1. Atlas Intel +3% Trump national
2. Rasmussen +2% Trump national
3. NY Times +1% Trump national (not conservative)

Trafalgar is more conservative, and they are showing Trump slightly ahead in key "swing states" (WI, AZ, PA, NC, GA) but have not issued a recent national report.
Trafalgar shows Harris tied or ahead in Nevada and Michigan.

Finally, whether a pollster is left-leaning or conservative, the electoral college math works out that Harris will need at least +3% in the popular vote to achieve an electoral college win.

In other words, Harris +3% means the electoral college vote will most likely be tied, so she needs more than 3% to win the election.

If I remember correctly, in 2020 Biden was +7% as of September, and in 2016 Clinton was +5%, so Harris is trailing both of them.

So, Trump is still slightly favored, imho.