Posted on 09/08/2024 8:26:40 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
If you ask the average man or woman on the street if crime is rising or falling in America, the solid majority response would be rising.
Rasmussen Reports found the number of Americans who believe violent crime is rising very constant at 60%. Gallup found 92% of Republicans and 58% of Democrats believe that crime is rising.
Roughly four times as many people think violent crime is rising rather than getting better. But the actual figures for violent crime are falling in almost every major city. Why the disconnect? Why are people convinced crime is on the rise?
First of all, reported violent crimes are down but property crimes have skyrocketed. Secondly, only about half of police departments report crimes to the FBI database. That database reveals the real problem; plummeting arrest rates for all crimes.
From New York Sun :
The arrest rate for murder fell by 37 percent, rape by 58 percent, robbery by 50 percent, and aggravated assault by 54 percent.The collapse in the arrest rate for property crime is even more dramatic. The average arrest rate for reported property crime fell to 4.5 percent% from an average of 13 percent in the 25 years from 1996 to 2021 — a 64 percent drop.
The lowest arrest rate in the preceding 24 years between 1996 and 2019 was 22 percent. The arrest rate in 2022 was still 61 percent lower than the previous low rate. was 12 percent
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
See here:
Title: America’s Crime Wave Is Even Worse Than It Seems as Law Enforcement Collapses. Arrest rates are plunging — and, at the same time, fewer of the crimes getting committed are being reported to police.
The underwear is locked up at Walmart. Surveillance cameras have been set up at the grocery store parking lot.
Yeah, crime is rising.
...The federal government has two ways of measuring crime, the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s (FBI) Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program. The former asks around 240,000 Americans if they’ve been the victim of a crime in the last year whereas the latter relies on crimes reported to police in a given year and shared with the bureau.
A gap has emerged between the two measures. More people are telling the Bureau of Justice Statistics that they’ve been victimized, but the FBI is reporting fewer crimes.
The UCR reported that violent crime fell by 2% between 2021 and 2022, according to the Council on Criminal Justice. By contrast, the NCVS found that the number of people saying they were the victims of violent crimes increased by 42.4% between 2021 and 2022, rising from 16.5 victimizations per 1000 people to 23.5 victimizations per 1000.
Despite these disparities, several media outlets published stories claiming that crime was declining in the United States...
...Among the reasons that the disparities might be so wide between the UCR and NCVS is that crimes that occurred, but were not reported, would not appear in the FBI’s UCR so, if the reporting rate falls, the gap between actual crime and what the FBI reports will grow.
Additionally, 31% of police departments didn’t report data to the FBI in 2022, according to The Marshall Project. The FBI’s transition to a new reporting system, that required more work from local law enforcement agencies, contributed to the relatively low response rates, according to the Washington Examiner...
DIDN’T some states hide ALOT of their school issues by not filing reports???
What were reported as crimes years ago are not today. Especially in Democrat run cities. IMHO you cannot compare today’s crime rates to the past.
Crime is up but if arrests are down and prosecution is down, they can CLAIM that crime is down.
But crime is not down simply because someone refuses to address it.
DUH!
Or someone beats someone for their phone or wallet get charged with a property crime and not aggravated assault.
Or changing the criteria for what a felony vs a misdemeanor is.
It’s only going to get worse with each “caravan” of illegal alien criminals who are escorted into America by the BP Welcome Wagons at the borders.
Are you saying that if a crime is reported but a suspect isn’t arrested or prosecuted that the crime isn’t counted in the statistics? That unsolved crimes are not counted?
That’s my understanding.
I think they only count actual arrests and/or prosecutions, not just reports. But I’m not in LE and it may depend on the community.
They also avoid arresting criminals who are Black or Hispanic as much as they can. (See the Consent Decree for the City of Aurora. It is typical police department policy in many other places). They avoid arresting Muslims.
It is hard to find that much crime in the White or Asian population. So, Yippee! Crime rates are down!
“Yeah, crime is rising.”
For sure but people gave up reporting in communist areas because it’s pointless unless for insurance purposes.
Oh jeez, that did not make sense to me so I googled it. It seems that generally crime rate statistics include unsolved crimes and closed cases (cases referred for prosecution). I volunteer at my police dept so I’ll try to remember to ask someone next time I’m there.
Democrat DA Gascon in Los Angeles has a backlog of over 14,000 cases. There are many more where he just refused to file charges. He did immense damage to the city and also to San Francisco where he did the same.
He is expected to lose the election this november.
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