Swiss Political Scientist Says Voters Lying to Pollsters Created Harris Poll Surge

One America News ^ | 11:30 AM – Wednesday, August 28, 2024 | Neil W. McCabe

[Olog-hai]

The Swiss political scientist who has studied the unique dynamics of why incumbents win and lose told RedState the polling shifts toward Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential campaign and away from former President Donald Trump are highly suspect.

“I would not be surprised if some voters would be lying to pollsters right now,” said Dr. Louis Perron, who earned his doctorate at the University of Zurich.

Perron, the author of Beat the Incumbent: Proven Strategies and Tactics to Win Elections, said it is natural for voters to present themselves as socially or morally acceptable.

“There is currently quite a media hype about Kamala in the mainstream media, so some voters might not want to admit that they won’t vote for her,” he said. “In recent polls, she got more than 40 percent among white voters. I’m not saying it’s impossible, but I believe it when I see it in November.”

This is one reason why polls in both the United Kingdom and the United States fail to capture the true support for conservative candidates, observed the political scientist who went to the University of Geneva for his undergraduate degree.

“There is a common pattern here with the shy Tory voter or the shy Trump voter,” he said. “There is a difference between public opinion — what people think — and the published opinion — what is published in the media. Some people are hesitant to speak out against the published opinion.” …

[Olog-hai]

It’s easy to put anything in the “mouth” of a fake voter, whether it exists or not. Dr. Perron looks like he does not want to use the five-letter F-word.

[alexander_busek]

I, personally, don't think that "lying" plays much of a role.

Rather, I think that polls would be skewed by the tendency of Trump supporters to outright refuse to participate in any such survey.

Regards,

[Az Joe]

Yes, don’t participate or lie. All Trump voters should do this.

[alexander_busek]

Yes, don’t participate or lie. All Trump voters should do this.

No, I wouldn't ever lie.

The pollsters might then report something like "Tide turning: Overwhelming majority support Harris," and that could conceivably hurt President Trump's campaign.

Instead, I would flatly refuse to participate - or maybe give some response like, "None of your business!"

That way, the pollsters would have to report something like, "Of that tiny sliver of respondents who were willing to express a preference, and didn't simply walk away in contempt, a slim majority - mostly pink-haired, Lesbian land-whales - favored Harris."

Regards,

[ModelBreaker]

“Both Trump and Harris have a claim to insider and outsider status.”

That is hilarious.

[philman_36]

Polling data doesn't recognize sarcasm.

"Yeah, right. Like I'm gonna vote for Harris."

[frnewsjunkie]

Voting for harris..
She aims to take your freedoms and make a world where she has what she wants.. At your expense.
To vote for a woman in the highest office, is questionable. To vote for this woman is irresponsible . She is no where near capable.. And you can’t do that to this country if you have any value for all the lives given to keep us free and blessed.
She is in this position, under circumstances created by the democratic party.. A situation where the people are not in control.. Deep state is. A dangerous set up with all the wrong individuals finally in a position.. World control, once the United States is no longer a power nation.
Chaos. Mahem. End times. Are we that close.

[Apparatchik]

Part of the Trump campaign message should be to emphasize to voters that it’s just them in the voting booth - no one will know whom the voted for. And the same is true of their friends and neighbors, so don’t hesitate to vote in the best interest of the country’s prosperity and security (and to vote early)!

[Zathras]

You are correct.
If I don’t know the caller, I don’t answer and then block the number.

[FLT-bird]

Yes, that’s called “social bias”. It certainly exists though I think its probably less of a factor this time than it was previously. The reason some of the polls skewed toward Heels Up recently is IMO, response bias....ie Democrats are more excited and eager to answer surveys now than they were before. Their vote has not changed. They were always going to vote for the candidate that had a “D” beside their name. They were just unexcited before and didn’t want to answer opinion surveys and now they do. What polls and other studies have consistently showed over time is that people don’t really change their minds about which candidate to support very much.

If a pollster is dishonest and want to push a narrative as many of them are and do, they will simply not filter out or account for response bias. So they will get surveys that are in no way reflective of what the electorate is going to look like.....for example I’ve seen D+7 surveys. Gee, it turns out if you have 7% more Democrats in the survey then suddenly Heels Up actually can lead! The problem for the Democrats is that the people who turn out to vote aren’t going to be anything near +5 or +7 Democrat. Its going to be even at best. Look at overall voter registration. Republicans have been registering FAR MORE voters than Democrats in recent years and have closed the gap.

[Clutch Martin]

“If I don’t know the caller, I don’t answer and then block the number.”

Those numbers are computer generated so blocking the number is futile I get five to six calls a day and it’s never the same number twice... I look at the phone log at the end of the day and delete.

It’s maddening but, if you pick up even to play a game like flush the toilet or stick it out of your car window it’s not really a person it’s oftentimes computer generated so you’re not doing anything but triggering a “yes somebody is at that number” and the calls will continue.

[Clutch Martin]

“the five-letter F-word”

I give up...

What’s the five-letter F-word?

[Natty Bumppo@frontier.net]

Fraud

[Bratch]

Mark Halprin Has a Pragmatic Warning for Kamala Harris Supporters

August 28, 2024 | Sundance

I do not know much about Mark Halprin other than what I have discerned from watching him sporadically discuss politics for years.  However, I have noticed in the last few years he is evolving toward a more sensible, pragmatic and non-pretending type of political analysis.

In this video below, Halprin speaks to something that everyone on the left is avoiding, the known problems with Kamala Harris as a candidate.

Brian Fallon is managing and hiding Kamala Harris, because Fallon and the rest of her handlers know there is very solid reasoning for why Kamala Harris was never considered a viable alternative to Biden before.  A few short weeks ago, the professional left were riddled with anxiety over Joe Biden’s mental and cognitive status, while simultaneously those same people did not want Harris as a candidate because they knew she had no skills.

You don’t have to argue with them, just ask any Democrat/Leftists to name the greatest accomplishment of Kamala Harris and you will see them melt in front of you.  Nothing about that has changed, and that’s why the DNC/Brian Fallon must hide Harris in order to maintain her ¹polling position.  If they let Kamala campaign and talk to the media, she will tank just like Ron DeSantis did (for the same reason).

Listen to Halprin first.  He’s right about this, and beyond his accuracy, what he says “might happen” – I would say is a virtual certainty.

Watch on X.

“I’m warning those of you who want Trump to lose that by the middle of next month, there’s a real possibility, based on what I’ve seen in terms of public and private data … that Kamala Harris could be where Joe Biden was,” says Mark Halperin.  “Only one electoral college path and not a particularly strong hold on it.”

¹Polling Position – I cannot emphasize this enough. 

• The DNC (Obama/Clyburn) goal with Kamala Harris is polling position. 
• They need her to have the biggest appearance of support possible.  

It is polling they need – REMEMBER THAT!

The problem democrats had was not that Biden lost his marbles or was losing the election, the problem was that Biden was losing by a scale that was too big for them to cover. [CTH June 29, 2024]

Democrats didn’t need a switch-out candidate who could beat Donald Trump; they needed a candidate who can give plausibility to the Clyburn ballot counting results that will say Trump lost.

The issue they had with Biden was that he made the fraud too easy to see. The Democrats do not need a candidate who can win votes, the Democrats needed a candidate who can make fraudulent ballot results seem plausible.

The need to retain ballot plausibility is why the most important political narrative for the people who control Kamala Harris, is polling!

If her handlers think she will hurt her current polling by being visible, they will keep her hidden.  If her handlers think she will hurt her polling by speaking, they will keep her quiet.

Everything Obama/Clyburn and the team will do is to manage the illusion of Kamala Harris in order to preserve the media polling narrative and thereby facilitate the determining factor of Ballot Harvesting (Obama) and Ballot Scanning (Clyburn).

[SMARTY]

I used to work for a 'survey center' and I know what goes on with the ‘survey’ data

Surveys are written so that no Conservative can possibly answer or self-identify AS a Conservative, without also admitting that he/she also tears babies in half and eats them.

ALL available ‘responses’ are written to put Conservatives in the worst possible light. THAT'S how the results are skewed and why no one should EVER do a survey!

[KC_Conspirator]

He is referring to the Bradley Effect or the Wilder Effect.

[Robert A Cook PE]

True words. Good summary.

And it ALL can only work with the full compliance, the deliberately maintained compliance of the nation’s and the world’s mainstream propaganda machine (er, massed news media).

[asinclair]

Most of the time, I refuse to take telephone polls. Now, one progressive pollster sent a text; I lied through my teeth like the way Kenneth Copeland lied to Atlanta police.

[Olog-hai]

It rhymes with “flawed”.

[LS]

True, and I do believe in the “shy Trump voter,” but apparently there was no such thing as a “Shy Tory” voter in the last election.