The important point here is that Harris in 2024 is less popular than Joe Biden in 2020. In 2020, Biden beat Trump in Virginia by about 10 points. According to this poll Harris beats Trump in Virginia in 2024 by 3 points. I expect Harris to win Virginia in 2024. But if Harris being behind Biden from 4 years ago is replicated in the swing states, Trump will win the presidential election.
Younkl8n did a purge of the rolls.
And Trump tends to outperform the polls by thee to five percent in swing states.