Posted on 08/11/2024 5:38:32 PM PDT by libh8er
A new survey of likely voters from Trafalgar Group has former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris in four key swing states.
The poll released Friday shows Trump leading Harris by 2 percentage points in Pennsylvania 46% to 44%, 1 point in Arizona 48% to 47%, 3 points in Nevada at 48% to 45%, and 4 points in North Carolina 49% to 45%.
The polls come as voters have adjusted to the reality of Harris taking over the top of the Democratic ticket from President Joe Biden, who announced in July that he was no longer seeking reelection. This week, Harris chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.
While Trump has consistently polled well in North Carolina and Nevada this election cycle, Pennsylvania and Arizona have fluctuated greatly. With the electoral map shifting daily, Pennsylvania might be the key to victory for either candidate with Trump winning the state in 2016 and Biden taking it in 2020.
Last week, CNN's Harry Enten said that even if Harris were to lose Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, she could still gain the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the election by winning Pennsylvania.
The Trafalgar Group poll was taken Aug. 6-8 among 1,000 likely voters in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. The poll did not cite a sampling error.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...
Come on Arizona. Put on your big boy pants and man up!
My point is that the republican party does not react to events, politically and otherwise.
Their candidate was exposed to an incredible threat and there should be a much stronger reaction. The democrats would tear the country apart over much less.
Nothing normal at all so far about 2024. Watching both miracles happen and actual signs of the possible end of western society unlike anything I’ve seen.
I’m really worried if the Democrats pull stunts and there’s some bizarre mail in graphs in PA and GA like 2020 there could be.. I don’t want to think about it, but maybe the Mormons are right to have a few months of supplies. And in the worst case that won’t help much either.
LOL!😍
Ignore that at your peril.
The Trafalgar poll has President Trump up by +2 in Pennsylvania, not +4.
-PJ
I’m not ignoring anything. Of course cheating is a huge consideration but the rules of the game have tightened in the last few yrs and cheating will be easier to spot. We just have to be ready to do the same if necessary. Our country won’t survive 4-8 more yrs of Dem☭crat rule.
But but but Trump is doing so many things wrong per the concerned few on fr
Careful, you will get bombarded daily, maybe 30-40 texts, all looking for a handout. Blocking them doesn’t help, they keep coming . I think it’s a saturation action campaign to turn everybody off!
Numbers don’t matter anymore.
The Swamp is going to steal the election.
They’ve committed too many blatant crimes to let Trump regain the WH, including trying to kill him.
Too many Swamp players would go to prison.
2020 wasn’t an election, it was a communist coup. Communist don’t give up power without bloodshed.
America is the biggest prize in all of history, and they are within half an inch of total control.
One more stolen election and we become the Soviet Union.
They’re not even pretending to try anymore.
No election process with Kamala. They’re just going to install a low IQ woman into the WH, and there’s nothing anybody can do about it.
Joe Biden said it best several years ago when he said to oppose them, you need an F-15. They control the military, and they’ll use it if they have to.
Fetterman won by early voting before his terrible debate.
Early voting should be watched very closely.
Hiding Kamala and having the media remain silent isn’t going to work.
Early voting is the ballot harvesting period
Sorry, Bob.
AZ is R+260,000 (!!!), double that of 2020.
AZ will be close to 5-6 for Trump.
People continue to not understand.
The polls are EXTREMELY accurate. All of them. That show different results. They are all accurate.
Polling is taking samples from the population and arranging the samples to fit their decided on electorate profile.
Some pollsters expect a 55/45 turnout of women vs men. Some expect a 12% black turnout vs others expecting 10%.
They will make phone calls or sample online and arrange the respondent total to fit their profile (turnout model). Once they have all those slots filled, they count up the total Trump vs Harris preferences and publish the result.
This means absolutely no one might change their minds. But if they change their electorate profile, they will get different results. And, of course, the different pollsters will have different imagined profiles, and get different results, and all of them accurate measures of the preference of their profile.
So Trafalgar means whatever their electorate profile means, and I have not seen that.
Thanks for the ping.
live Maricopa voter registration tracker. Updates every 5 minutes. FYI.
https://recorder.maricopa.gov/Elections/VoterRegistration/redirect_new.aspx?view=congressional
This is 30,000 more than the R advantage in the WHOLE STATE in 2020. Statewide, about R+260,000. Entire counties including Navajo have turned red. Pima is actually LOSING share vs. Rs.
Yes Maricopa is quite fascinating. If Trump wins Maricopa, he wins the state. That’s my guess. Anyway McDonald and his early voting stats will be starting in September. Should get an early idea with mail ballot requests in NC compared to 2020.
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