Posted on 08/02/2024 2:11:33 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Storm watches and warnings have been issued from the Florida Keys up the Florida Gulf Coast to Suwanee. The system is crossing Central Cuba, moving at 16mph. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical depression on Saturday as it moves across the Straits of Florida, followed by intensification into a tropical storm by Saturday night. Governor DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 54 counties, most along the Gulf Coast and in northern Florida, to move assets in preparation for the storm.
August 13 marks 20 years since Hurricane Charley made landfall near Punta Gorda FL.
The rapid strengthening of Charley in the eastern Gulf of Mexico caught many by surprise. Around five hours before its Florida landfall, Charley was a strong Category 2 hurricane predicted to strengthen its strongest winds to 115 mph upon its landfall in the Tampa–Saint Petersburg area. About two hours before landfall, the National Hurricane Center issued a special advisory, notifying the public that Charley had become a 145 mph Category 4 hurricane, with a predicted landfall location in the Port Charlotte area. As a result of this change in forecast, numerous people in the Charlotte County area were unprepared for the hurricane, although the new track prediction was well within the previous forecast's margin of error. National Hurricane Center forecasting intern Robbie Berg publicly blamed the media for misleading residents into believing that a Tampa landfall was inevitable.
Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.
Tropical Tidbits by Levi Cowan
Local News:
FOX4 News Southwest Florida
WWSB Sarasota/Bradenton
WFLA Tampa Bay
WESH2 Orlando
500 AM EDT Update
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About 195 MI SSW of Tampa FL
About 255 MI SSW of Cedar Key FL
Max Sustained Winds...50 MPH
Movement...NNW at 13 MPH
Minimum Pressure...1001 MB
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
Calm before the storm here. Eerily quiet.
What you need is a fast moving forward speed on this thing, not a stall. No telling what will actually happen.
Seems steering currents are weaking,tough to forecast.
Debby is gradually slowing down forward speed. We’re told to expect miserable weather through Monday.
wanna see how no cash allowed worked in the french olympic games:
no body is showing up or spednign any money in france.
sorry wrong post here!
Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024
Debby continues to slowly strengthen over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. Deep convection is gradually expanding over the center and
in fragmented bands on the system’s east side. Some of the outer
bands are moving through portions of the Lower Florida Keys and
southwestern Florida, producing tropical-storm-force gusts. The
initial wind speed is nudged upward to 45 kt, in agreement with the
Dvorak classification from TAFB. Both the NOAA and Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate the storm
today, and that data will provide very helpful information to
evaluate Debby’s strength and structure.
Debby continues to gradually turn to the right, with the initial
motion now estimated to be north-northwestward at 11 kt. The storm
is currently located on the southwestern periphery of an Atlantic
mid-level ridge, and it is headed toward a weakness caused by a mid-
to upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. This steering pattern
should cause Debby to turn northward and then north-northeastward
during the next day or so, taking the core of the cyclone to the Big
Bend region of Florida early Monday. There is high confidence on
this scenario, and little change has been made to that portion of
the track forecast. While Debby moves across the very warm waters
of the eastern Gulf of Mexico and remains in a relatively low wind
shear environment, the storm will have an opportunity to strengthen
rapidly before reaching the coast. The reliable intensity models
all suggest significant strengthening, and the degree of
intensification will be most related to how quickly Debby develops
an inner core. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the high end
of the intensity guidance through landfall, and shows Debby becoming
a hurricane by tonight prior to landfall.
After Debby makes landfall in Florida, the system is expected to
slow down and turn northeastward across northern Florida and
southeastern Georgia on Monday and Tuesday as the steering currents
weaken significantly. There is a lot of model disagreement in
whether or not the center of Debby stays inland or moves off the
coast of the southeast U.S. by the middle of the week. But, a
building ridge should cause it to turn northward or northwestward
and likely back inland during the middle and latter portions of the
week. Although confidence is low in the details of this portion of
the track forecast, the complex and weak steering pattern suggests
that Debby will be moving quite slowly and likely erratically while
near or over the southeastern U.S., resulting in a potentially
significant flooding event. Since it is not clear if the center
will remain inland or move offshore for a period of time, the
intensity forecast is also of low confidence. For now, little
overall change to the intensity forecast was made, and it shows
Debby remaining a tropical storm while meandering near the southeast
U.S.
In October 2018, Hurricane Michael was a nothing burger at 5:00pm, but by 9:00pm it was “Run for your lives!”, a Cat 5. Winds, not gusts, were recorded past 193 MPH.
It came right over our house (we weren’t living here at the time) and beat the Hell out of the Panama City through the Mexico Beach area. It is stunning just how fast these monsters can intensify.
Mash image to enlarge
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024
...DEBBY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
If Debby moves just a few miles to the left we’re going to get soaked. So far, the winds seem modest but the rains seem heavy. We’re in a good place that drains well right into the bay.
That’s what it looks like for my area as well. At the moment, my locale in Georgia is shaded light green when it comes to Debby’s effects. We do need the rain as any system over the past couple of weeks has split and gone both north and south of us leaving us hot and humid with no rain. My home is surrounded by trees so I just hope we don’t get any strong winds.
1100 AM EDT Update
-------------------------------
About 130 MI WSW of Tampa FL
About 160 MI SSW of Cedar Key FL
Max Sustained Winds...65 MPH
Movement...NNW at 13 MPH
Minimum Pressure...992 MB
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
Saw that, thanks! After you two mentioned Indian burial ground I did some digging. Turns out there’s a very old one within a mile or so of where I live! I drive past it a couple of days a week and didn’t know it was there.
Looks like Debby is picking up some strength.
Hi.
Thanks for your work each season.
Most everyone knows I live in St. Pete, so here goes...
I’m 10 minutes from Gulf to Bay.
Intermittent heavy showers and gale force wind.
Some flooding and not much property damage yet.
Planes are now flying out of TPA and PIE.
Everything is open.
But Big Bend and the Panhandle will get a hurricane.
-30-
5.56mm
Very punny!
Ominous 11:00 NHC update. Debby is about to undergo rapid intensification. SC/GA low country forecast 20-30" rain. Historic and catastrophic flood potential as Debby meanders around the SC/GA coast with no steering currents.
We just had alert for storm surge warning. We are just about to receive the long version of the lengthy squall line stretching from Tampa Bay down to Marco Island.
"1100 AM EDT Update"
-------------------------------
About 130 MI WSW of Tampa FL
About 160 MI SSW of Cedar Key FL
Max Sustained Winds...65 MPH
Movement...NNW at 13 MPH
Minimum Pressure...992 MB
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center."
Please check the storm maps to see if your area may be impacted,
as the storm is expected to cross over the Florida peninsula,
and impact as far as east onto both Carolina's sea coasts.
Sudden intensity could occur over the warmer waters of the Gulf
Minimum Pressure...992 MB
Ut oh. No land until the Panhandle.
5.56mm
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