Expected to be a hurricane near landfall in TX...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...22.2N 91.3W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
Living in the Hill Country....
We need Beryl to make landfall just south of Corpus and then head north, staying just west of SA & Austin.
We need rain in the worst way. I’m praying.
Joe Bastardi is targeting Port Lavaca (Port O’Oconnor). That’s the new NHC landing site as well. That said, Joe’s concerned that ‘further up the coast’ is still in play as Beryl is currently tracking NORTH of the predicted lines (though still quite disorganized).
NHC does expect the storm to get her act together before landfall; enough for a 90mph storm.
From this morning’s Discussion page: “It is important to note that the average NHC track error at 60 hours is about 80 miles and the average intensity error is close to one category. Users are reminded to consider these uncertainties when using the forecast information.”
That’s particularly at issue here given that you’ve got a curving coastline being approached by a curving hurricane from an oblique angle. Timing is everything.