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To: NautiNurse

Joe Bastardi is targeting Port Lavaca (Port O’Oconnor). That’s the new NHC landing site as well. That said, Joe’s concerned that ‘further up the coast’ is still in play as Beryl is currently tracking NORTH of the predicted lines (though still quite disorganized).

NHC does expect the storm to get her act together before landfall; enough for a 90mph storm.

From this morning’s Discussion page: “It is important to note that the average NHC track error at 60 hours is about 80 miles and the average intensity error is close to one category. Users are reminded to consider these uncertainties when using the forecast information.”

That’s particularly at issue here given that you’ve got a curving coastline being approached by a curving hurricane from an oblique angle. Timing is everything.


51 posted on 07/06/2024 5:14:29 AM PDT by alancarp (George Orwell was an optimist.)
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To: alancarp

Good points. Galveston Bay is still within the Cone of Uncertainty. Beryl looked rather ragged last night on satellite. But the GOM waters are warm enough to strengthen the storm.


55 posted on 07/06/2024 5:42:53 AM PDT by NautiNurse (The Biden Organized Crime Family is holding out for a big payout to the BIG GUY. )
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To: alancarp; Diana in Wisconsin; NautiNurse; 4everontheRight; 4Liberty; 5thGenTexan; 45semi; ...
Prepping ping - Hurricane Beryl : Anticipated landfall for Texas and influence on Louisiana and the Gulf of Mexico area
Be prepared and stay safe !
Maps and graphs are also posted, along with updates as they occur

alancarp :"Joe Bastardi is targeting Port Lavaca (Port O’Oconnor). That’s the new NHC landing site as well.
That said, Joe’s concerned that ‘further up the coast’ is still in play
as Beryl is currently tracking NORTH of the predicted lines (though still quite disorganized).
NHC does expect the storm to get her act together before landfall; enough for a 90mph storm."

"From this morning’s Discussion page: “It is important to note that the average NHC track error at 60 hours is about 80 miles
and the average intensity error is close to one category.
Users are reminded to consider these uncertainties when using the forecast information.”

" That’s particularly at issue here given that you’ve got a curving coastline being approached by a curving hurricane from an oblique angle. Timing is everything."

" The NHC itself is now thinking ‘1PM Monday’ for landfall.
She’s slowing down more than they’d thought before."

Diana in Wisconsin :" Adding the ‘Windy’ link as it’s very detailed and you can switch it up as you want.
All in the path of Beryl? Be safe! Be prepared!

https://www.windy.com/?26.412,-85.693,5 "

NautiNurse : " Galveston Bay is still within the Cone of Uncertainty.
Beryl looked rather ragged last night on satellite.
But the GOM waters are warm enough to strengthen the storm."

60 posted on 07/06/2024 7:10:34 AM PDT by Tilted Irish Kilt
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To: alancarp

Central Texas coast is likely the spot for landfall which puts the Houston metro area on the dirty side. Expect rain and flooding.


69 posted on 07/06/2024 8:24:24 AM PDT by 38special (The government is ruining our country!)
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