Russia learned a hard lesson with the Soviet Union. When you try to force a nation together, and need to keep it together through the constant application of force, it becomes an endless drain on your resources, eventually bankrupting you.
Russia has zero interest in taking areas that are unfavorable to them.
But, if we (the West) are going to create a zero-sum game in Ukraine, then Russia will take those parts they know are favorable to them, the Eastern and more ethnic Russian areas of Ukraine. They will go for what was once part of Russia and where they helped build up the industry.
The industrial area in Eastern Ukraine and the port city of Mariupol which is the heart of Ukraine’s steel industry were built by the Soviets:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azovstal_Iron_and_Steel_Works
https://www.britannica.com/place/Donbas
—Once we overthrew the government in Ukraine and installed our own (Maiden) and began purging Ukraine of Russian influence, we created a zero-sum game. Ukraine was no longer a playing field where both sides could play and benefit.
—Once we pushed for Ukraine to be a member of NATO, we were solidifying our control over Ukraine, but also putting Russia in an impossible security situation. It was a simple gamble, will Russia acquiesce or block our move using force? We had been building Ukraine up militarily for 7 years and the price would be very high if Russia tried to block us.
What areas the Russians would shoot for in an armed conflict was evident:
https://danieljmitchell.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/russian-in-ukraine.jpg
https://danieljmitchell.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/ukraine-election-results.jpg
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Ukraine_LeftAffixedMaps_9.png?w=1141&crop=0%2C0px%2C100%2C875px
The Russians went for Eastern Ukraine, areas with a high ethnic Russia population.
Russia was extremely displeased with our move in 2004 regards Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia. At that time, Russia didn’t take any action against us, but they made it very clear that what we had done was perceived as us breaking a promise of no NATO expansion. After that, Russia began making military changes to be able to respond to us.
Following our move in 2004 we tried to do the same thing again in the Republic of Georgia 2008, which the Russians blocked militarily. Then we tried it in Ukraine 2014, which the Russians blocked militarily. Then we tried it again in Ukraine 2021, which the Russians blocked militarily. Russia does not want us building military bases along their border, plain and simple.
They openly even state (and Ukraine was heading that way), that Ukraine can be in the EU, partake in whatever UN activities they want, etc. But Russia does not want NATO missiles, nukes, fighters, bombers, tanks, troops, missile defense, etc. on their border. That has been their publicly stated “red line” for years and we violated that in 2021. This caused a war, plain and simple: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-president-zelenskiy-holding-talks-with-biden-adviser-says-2021-12-09/
—This is a case where we took things to far.
—Where we gambled, but our hand wasn’t as strong as we thought it was.
Russia is neither irrational nor inconsistent on this matter. This isn’t something where we stumbled into it unknowingly. We knew we were pushing their buttons, we just didn’t care and when Russia was warning us, we chose to hide behind some bullshit idea of national sovereignty for Ukraine to justify our action.
Think of it like this: there are many folks here in the US that want much more done about our Southern border. Some want to take military action against the cartels, even without Mexico’s approval. We had the Monroe doctrine, where we self appointed our lordship over all of South America. We almost went to war with the Soviets over putting missiles in Cuba. We invaded Grenada because the Soviets were in secret building a military base and runway for their bombers there. People take what happens on their border very seriously. So do we.
Red6, thank you for educating me on the posture of Russia and the reasons our foreign policy basically caused the war to start in Ukraine.
I find your analysis compelling because of its understanding of this region of the world — plus common sense about our own outrage about what’s going on at our Southern Border.
Well done, Texan.
I appreciate your post
I have a few thoughts
The build up happened under the Soviet Union, i suggest you ask the folks there who actually built the stuff up, like who is fighting in Ukraine and it isn’t majority ethnic Russians
As to high areas of ethnic Russians, again I would have you ask the folks that were there before millions we killed or deported and “ethnic” Russians moved in.
I have heard the analogy of “what would we do if Mexico joined Russia…” and I think that analogy is wrong.
More like what if Canada, Mexico, and Bahamas were all part of a Warsaw pact entity and Russian troops we stationed there, and THEN, cuba decided to join. Now ten years earlier we had invaded Guantanamo bay to protect our ethnic amaericans(and our naval base), but now we decide to invade the rest to “protect” our people and national interests… yet Mexico (poland), Canada (Latvia), and Bahamas (Estonia) are still on out borders. Does taking Cuba help our national security?
I don’t buy the NATO threatened Russia. Prior to 2014, Russia was part of G8 and even after 2014 Europe and America were trading and investing in Russia
This is all about putins dreams, but i am sure we will disagree
