The election is closer than it should be: Given the facts, why is it a tie?

The Spectator ^ | 06/20/2024 | Ben Domenech

[SeekAndFind]

So I want to open with a caveat: Fox News is my employer, and anything I say that is critical of their pollsters should be understood as distinct to their pollsters, and not to the network as a whole. That said, their pollsters have occasionally been… very wrong. Who can forget the ludicrous Indiana Senate poll from 2018 that envisioned a dead heat between the candidates in a race the Republican won by seven points? So the point is, everyone can be off on occasion. But right now, the Fox prognosticators are…

Welcome to Thunderdome. So I want to open with a caveat: Fox News is my employer, and anything I say that is critical of their pollsters should be understood as distinct to their pollsters, and not to the network as a whole. That said, their pollsters have occasionally been… very wrong. Who can forget the ludicrous Indiana Senate poll from 2018 that envisioned a dead heat between the candidates in a race the Republican won by seven points? So the point is, everyone can be off on occasion. But right now, the Fox prognosticators are out with a poll that shows Joe Biden up, and the opinions about the economy up as well. It’s been a shift that is notable over the past month.

For Republicans, this may come as a shock, or they might dismiss it. But it’s probably pretty accurate, or close to it. Things just aren’t as bad for Joe Biden politically as some people would like to believe. The indications are dire on paper, to be sure — but even with his failures on the economy, chaos on the world stage and his radicalism on culture war issues, Biden is hanging in there.

The truth is that none of this is a significant change. Trump has been within the margin of error for a long time now and it’s hardly a surprise to see him there again. But it might be a surprise to those Republicans who thought the former president was running ahead. 

The power of incumbency is significant. So is the advantage bequeathed to Joe Biden by having a compliant media and massive donor support structure. Virtually every entity and institution of note is on Biden’s side. So for the former president, this is an uphill battle.

For Democrats, next week’s debate is about establishing stability and framing the upcoming fall contest. For Republicans, it needs to be about detailing all the failures of the Biden administration for voters who have generally tuned out of political news in the past few years. Anyone watching it needs to come away with the conclusion that the affordability of a home, food, gas, electricity and basic needs for a family are all problems that Joe Biden exacerbated. If they don’t, that’s going to be Donald Trump’s fault for spending too much time on issues that aren’t priorities for Americans.

If given the choice, I’d still rather be the Trump campaign than the Biden campaign at this point. But this is a much closer race than it should be given the state of affairs. The possibility of a shy Biden vote is very real. And no amount of hammering away from the right’s media arm will alter that fact. It will take a performance from the candidate himself.

[dm4]

One thing that I’ve never been able to understand is why Biden leads among the elderly?

Are the elderly that far to the left???Or like some people I have came across simply in denial about what the democrat party has become?

[TalBlack]

In an honest election with all vetted blue thumb voters Trump would slaughter Biden. He won in ‘16, he won in’20 and he’s only going to do better this time around. America is fairly closely divided generally but the idea that Biden at this point stands a snowballs chance in hell is gaslighting.

[dm4]

Yep, I’m skeptical of a lot of things at this point. It seems like every election cycle we hear how minorities are abandoning the democrat party yet they end up voting the same as always.

I think realistically he might do a few,2 or 3 (at the most) points better with them. There’s no way he’s getting,let’s say 20% of the black vote.

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

The election is closer than it should be: Given the facts, why is it a tie?

Lots of Americans apparently want socialism, and if B wins this one fair and square, they will deserve it good and hard (apologies to Mencken).

[IAGeezer912]

My 98 yearold father in law was a cook on a supply ship in WW2. He has TDS and says Rachel Madcow is his hero.

He is the only Dem in the family and says that he feels betrayed by his entire family. He regrets his WW2 service and wishes that Japan and Germany had won the war.

He also has a hatred for the Marine Corp. Apparently, when ships came back to port in San Diego the Marines from Camp Pendleton would go the bars and pick fights with the sailors to blow off steam. He mentions bar fights so I see a connection between that and TDS.

[krug]

Biden is hanging in there because: reddit, the alphabet networks, social media, Hollyweird, etc... Every once in a while I break down and watch the evening news, or read posts on reddit, and it’s all Biden is great and Trump is the devil.

[ballplayer]

The liars in the main stream media,simple as that

[dfwgator]

There are enough stupid people for them to get away with it.

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

He is the only Dem in the family and says that he feels betrayed by his entire family. He regrets his WW2 service and wishes that Japan and Germany had won the war.

He's an idiot. Doesn't he know (of all people) that the Imperial Japanese soldiers would carve their POWs' butts into steaks and eat them?

[Vermont Lt]

The TV channels and internet sources NEED this race to be close. Otherwise, no one would watch/click.

Short of Biden collapsing on the stage next week, this race will appear to be neck and neck until the week after the election.

It probably won’t be that close. I remember back in ‘80 where Carter knew he was going to be blown out sometime in May/June.

[SMARTY]

Polls mean less than nothing

I used to have a part time job at a survey center. At election time, many surveys were run to determine odds for prospective candidates.

On EVERY survey, questions were worded so that in order for any respondent to select the answer aligning him/herself as Republican or Conservative, meant that he or she was a also admitting that they tear babies in half and eat them.

Never do surveys and never pay any attention to them

[Drew68]

Why are you using the leftist putdown “rust belt”? Are you a lefty in disguise?

Seriously? Are you that thin skinned?

The "rust belt" is a common term for the four states of PA, WI, MI, and OH.

Man up. Try not to get so easily triggered.

[iamgalt]

The FNC poll had Traitor Joe up 52-48 among rural voters. That is preposterous. That alone told me it was a badly cooked poll.

[Drew68]

The FNC poll had Traitor Joe up 52-48 among rural voters. That is preposterous. That alone told me it was a badly cooked poll.

Yet they're all tied up with urban voters! LOL!

This should actually scare the hell outta the Democrats seeing that cows can't vote.

[Vaduz]

Democrats do not have voters.

Indeed they don’t require them when they have control note your list Trump trials are the results of tyranny.

[nesnah]

It’s not close, in reality.

The media narrative is to keep the idiots believing it’s that close so that when the industrial-scale cheating takes place, everyone will just shrug their shoulders.

[Freest Republican]

Ofc as you’re well aware, they’ve been cheating since dirt turned brown. They haven’t had an honest election for dog catcher in some of these cities in 200yrs.

IMO that 81 million total is going to look most fraudulent in the rear view mirror.

You make an excellent point about the China flu.
I agree with the rest of your reply.

They’re acting like desperate tyrants that know their time in power is running out. The obscene raid on the treasury is another sign of it.

[Ge0ffrey]

The ter “rust belt” is common among leftists. It’s usually a dead givaway.

[Organic Panic]

It is to fool the public in to believing Biden is really ahead when he is reinstalled.