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From the baby boom to the baby bust
Financial times ^ | 28th May 2024 | Martin Wolf

Posted on 05/28/2024 10:27:53 PM PDT by Cronos

Human societies used to have roughly stable populations, with high mortality matched by high fertility. In England and Wales in the 18th and 19th centuries, death rates plummeted. But fertility did not. The result was a population explosion, until, at last, fertility rates also collapsed

As the benefits of economic growth and advances in medicine and public health spread, most of the world has followed a similar transition, but far faster. As a result, human numbers rose fourfold over the last hundred years, from 2bn to 8bn. In time, however, fertility followed mortality. The result has been plummeting fertility rates (births per woman) across most of the world. According to a study recently published in The Lancet, “Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level.” For the world as a whole, the fertility rate was 2.3 in 2021, barely above replacement, down from 4.7 in 1960. For high-income countries the fertility rate was a mere 1.6, down from 3 in 1960. In general, poor countries still have higher fertility rates than richer ones, but they have been falling there, too. (See charts.)

(Excerpt) Read more at ft.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society
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Great graphs at the site
1 posted on 05/28/2024 10:27:53 PM PDT by Cronos
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To: Cronos

BTTT


2 posted on 05/28/2024 10:32:50 PM PDT by nopardons
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To: Cronos

Not a big deal once we're able to get to the magic number which is 2.1 children per woman.

3 posted on 05/28/2024 10:36:55 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican

That’s only replacement. Why is that the magic number?


4 posted on 05/28/2024 10:38:42 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: nickcarraway
That's the ideal number in countries like China and India.

There's room to support more people in USA and Canada. But let's face it, the only way to get it done is to bring religion back in our countries.

5 posted on 05/28/2024 10:42:08 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: Cronos

Crude birth and death rate over time in England and Wales


6 posted on 05/28/2024 10:44:44 PM PDT by Cronos (I identify as an ambulance, my pronounces are wee/woo)
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To: Cronos
Population pyramid India

UK

South Korea

China

Nigeria


7 posted on 05/28/2024 10:47:17 PM PDT by Cronos (I identify as an ambulance, my pronounces are wee/woo)
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To: MinorityRepublican

Overpopulation (The Population Bomb) was brought to us by the same loony bunch that worships at the altar of climate change. They value life and God’s creation with such disdain that they want it all to stop.

The entire population of the earth could fit in single family homes within the confines of the state of Texas. Infrastructure could not handle it but that should give an idea how much open space there is on the planet.

I’ve flown all over the world with a great big window seat. I’ve seen the vastness of open space. No one looks outside anymore. They sleep, stare at their precious little screens, play video games, all with the window shade pulled.

The majority of the world’s population is stacked on top of itself. The higher the stack, the lower the regard for life and God’s work.

Don’t fall for this scam too.

EC


8 posted on 05/28/2024 11:54:40 PM PDT by Ex-Con777
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To: Cronos
Interesting graphs for England and Wales. You can see the death spikes during the English Civil War, WW1, and WW2 and a fertility surge following each war.

9 posted on 05/29/2024 12:06:54 AM PDT by Right_Wing_Madman
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To: Ex-Con777

Baby Boom is coming at the end of the war—the big war—Its coming and it will be really bad, horrible really, But I don’t think it will last too long. then will come the baby boom of 2028.


10 posted on 05/29/2024 12:10:16 AM PDT by Forward the Light Brigade (. War is Hell)
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To: Cronos

“Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.”


11 posted on 05/29/2024 12:15:16 AM PDT by tumblindice (America's founding fathers: all armed conservatives)
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To: Cronos
I just wanna point out, (without any sort of real polling or evidence), that my generation of latter Baby Boomer's are some of the most Conservative of the 'Boomer' generation, and perhaps even our predecessors from 1946 onward are just as conservative as us ... but you wouldn't know it from reading the newspapers of the 1960's and 1970's ... according to them, we were the radical Hippies, the "Burn It All Down", the "Question Authority" generation.

Of course we were none of the above, excepting perhaps the "Question Authority" part, of which is one of the healthy parts of being an American --- to *always* question authority, and to *always* hold political hacks to account.

12 posted on 05/29/2024 12:30:37 AM PDT by Mr_Moonlight (Ich bin ein Irredeemable Deplorable)
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And they still won’t admit that the Covid ‘vaccine’ contributes to a baby bust unlike any other.


13 posted on 05/29/2024 1:52:13 AM PDT by ransomnote (IN GOD WE TRUST)
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To: Cronos

Regarding Korea: young Koreans aren’t having kids despite much government bribery and the main reason is the debasement of the Korean currency in thrall to US consumers to ensure that those 64-inch Samsung and LG TVs continue to fly off the (Wal-mart) shelves for $499 plus tax (less than half the price of the same TV here in Korea). So is the solution to buck up the currency so that young people might earn more and actually starting thinking they can afford kids and an apartment?
Absolutely not. The answer to the ultra-low birthrates in Korea is more of the same: outright bribery and currency debasement. What was that definition of insanity again? Someone should translate it into Korean and put it in the international post.


14 posted on 05/29/2024 2:28:55 AM PDT by Buck-Toothed Knuckle Dragger
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To: Buck-Toothed Knuckle Dragger

Interesting. Thank you for that local perspective and knowledge


15 posted on 05/29/2024 2:47:09 AM PDT by Cronos (I identify as an ambulance, my pronounces are wee/woo)
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To: Cronos

When the climate scientists come up with their predictions for average global temperatures and carbon dioxide levels, are they taking account of the fact that world population may be down to 5 billion by 2100?


16 posted on 05/29/2024 3:44:47 AM PDT by phil00071
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To: Buck-Toothed Knuckle Dragger

I wonder if North Korea is just waiting. Yes. I know they throw up their arms and yell war from time to time. But if South Korea ends up with a very small population whereas North Korea maintains, it’d be easier to take South Korea.


17 posted on 05/29/2024 3:55:44 AM PDT by napscoordinator (DeSantis is a beast! Florida is the freest state in the country! )
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To: Cronos

Population Bomb is a dud.


18 posted on 05/29/2024 4:11:33 AM PDT by wetgundog
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To: Cronos

Today’s youth don’t know what sex they are or deny their sex, have their heads buried in a phone 24/7 or are just too dumb from what they’re taught as to what parts fit together to make babies so not surprising.


19 posted on 05/29/2024 4:17:56 AM PDT by maddog55 (The only thing systemic in America is the left's hatred of it!)
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To: Buck-Toothed Knuckle Dragger

Cultural change is needed in Korea, and in the US. Basically children and family needs to be a status symbol. We need elites to have large families and the way to encourage that is a 10% reduction in income tax for every child born.


20 posted on 05/29/2024 4:35:42 AM PDT by impimp ( )
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