A former PLA soldier hired by Russians gives a reality check on Russia-Ukraine war

YouTube ^ | 5/23/2024 | Li Jianwei

[Red6]

You were the one to specifically mention nukes in a prior post and opened the conversation up to that topic, I was replying.

With our native American history, use of the nuke, slavery, land grabs from Mexico... I do not think it's a good idea to pretend as if we have some moral high ground over the Russians and start listing the death toll or injustices committed historically. Besides, just like we are not the US of 1876, so are the Germans not the same as in 1939, or the Russians in 1967. These are junk arguments were we zoom in and out or cherry pick some incident in history to prove what we want to believe.

You stated: “The proper lesson to draw is: Do not attack us. You don't know what crazy weapons we have in skunk works.”

If the end justifies the means, then what do you think about OBL? Did his end (rid the land of Mecca of Infidel influence and occupation) justify his means? Or does that not apply to anyone else?

Back to nukes, do you know who just recently was debating using them, for real, not even for nuclear deterrence?

https://www.popsci.com/nuclear-bunker-buster/

https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2002-12/news/congress-approves-nuclear-bunker-buster-research

Of course it's all different if it's us. It always is. If we use a nuke, well of course it's justified, if we torture, there must be a good reason, if we mass censor, kidnap, use mercenaries, lie, sponsor coups, break treaties, attack other nations or invade them for economic gain, withdraw from treaties, cheat, coerce other nations, occupy other nations against their will... It's always acceptable because we have a “good reason.”

Whatever reason anyone else has isn't as good as our reason, because we have a monopoly on truth and justice, so only we can do these things. Russia's Nazi argument is fake but our democracy babble is real.

But it doesn't matter what you think- sorry to say it like that. At this point, anyone with half a brain understands we set some things in motion we will regret. We are the bigger and stronger kid, BUT we will also get hurt in this fight. This war in the Ukraine and the things we set in motions were unnecessary, can't really be reversed, and will have long lasting implications for us both in security and economics.

—BRICS is expanding by leaps and bounds in both members and scope.

https://www.statista.com/chart/30672/brics-expansion-map/ Even some of our allies are beginning to side with them, i.e. Egypt.

https://www.cadtm.org/Are-the-BRICS-and-their-New-Development-Bank-offering-alternatives-to-the-World (They are creating their own version of a world-bank which has been around since 2015 but now it's getting real support and growing in momentum)

—A Russian-Chinese military alliance is emerging. If you think the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact had firepower...

https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/china-russia-alignment-cooperation-ukraine-war-military-supplies-putin-xi-jinpin/

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/unpacking-the-china-russia-alliance/

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-04-21/china-russia-iran-axis-is-bad-news-for-trump-and-gop-isolationists

—There is a slow but noticeable trend of folks divesting from the USD as the worlds reserve currency. Roughly 27% of your moneys purchasing power, of your wealth, is connected with the USD being the worlds reserve currency.

https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/currencies/de-dollarization

https://www.thebanker.com/China-courts-Saudi-Arabia-as-part-of-its-de-dollarisation-strategy-1702895025 (and this is our ally and who we have built our entire Middle East strategy around!)

—The proxy wars (as in the Cold War) are starting back up and we have taken casualties already. It's just not at a level nor is there a political interest to highlight this.

Niger: https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/russian-troops-enter-base-housing-us-military-niger-us-official-says-2024-05-02/ (This is funny)

Niger: https://www.npr.org/2024/05/19/1252380146/us-troops-leave-niger

Chad: https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/01/politics/us-withdraws-troops-chad/index.html

Ivory Coast: https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna40741614

Sudan: https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3371442/us-forces-evacuate-americans-from-khartoum-embassy/

—Ukraine is a failure. We have NOT achieved our stated political goal which was NATO membership for Ukraine and we failed to achieve our military goal (keep control of the Eastern parts of Ukraine everyone knew Russia would go for in this campaign).

Not only did we FAIL at meeting our stated political and military objectives, but we will also leave Ukraine a total basket case when this ends. Not Russia, Ukraine.

Imploded currency: https://g.co/kgs/HBp9kos

Debt: https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/ukraine/national-government-debt BTW, most of that debt is to us - that's the modern way you create a slave state.

Infrastructure: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68976135 They now are already sucking on the rest of Europe: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-plans-record-power-imports-after-infrastructure-damage-2024-05-13/ The damage to infrastructure spans power, water, roads, rail, telecom, education, medical facilities...

Demographic disaster: Ukraine's demographics are a record setting tale. The combination of one of the lowest global birthrates 1.4 (https://www.npr.org/2023/02/22/1155943055/ukraine-low-birth-rate-russia-war), combined with the deaths and cripples from this war (a generational cost), and finally a massive brain-drain in the form of refugees fleeing the country
(https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/images/thumb/9/9e/Map_TP_March_2024V2.jpg/600px-Map_TP_March_2024V2.jpg) many never to return, have left Ukraine in an impossible situation. Ukraine was a nation of ~41,000,000 (2021) where today (2024) only ~21,000,000 are actually in Ukraine.

GDP: https://www.intellinews.com/ukraine-puts-in-first-gdp-growth-since-the-war-began-293912/ We just don't talk about it as we dream of winning with our wonder weapons, bogus casualty reports, imaginary hero's winning in the air (Ghost of Kiev) and ground (Snake Island), but Ukraine's GDP shrunk by ~37% since wars begin. Let me put that in context for you, when we had our Great Depression, the GDP went down by roughly 30%: https://www.britannica.com/event/Great-Depression Ukraine, the obvious winner in this war, can't pay their retirees, federal employees, nor keep essential public services running without constant Western aid.

But I shouldn't be concerned. We're a democracy, and with God always being on our side, and people seeing how inspirational/hopeful we are, wanting to follow us even if that means pointing a gun in their face, we have nothing to worry about. (sarc)

Things are NOT going as envisioned.

Maybe the real lesson we should learn is that it's better to bully little guys, retards in the Middle East, Central America, that can't really fight a combined and joint war, don't have a mechanized force, large military, air and sea power, a huge IC, and no real means to fight back. Maybe the lesson we should learn is to respect Russia the same way we respect China (PRC) today. Russia is not as big and powerful as we are today, in any aspect except landmass, but they are still powerful enough to push back.

That is probably a lesson already learned by this administration even though that's something they would never admit and all the rest of us will get to pay for long after those responsible for this war (Biden/Blinken/Nuland/Sullivan...) have moved on. Long after Biden is dead, this legacy will continue to haunt us.

[Ronaldus Magnus]

Yep. Illustrates it perfectly.

The illustration shows that the Russians killed 88% of the Germans. Any knowledgeable German will tell you that it was the Russians who really won the war. But don't feel bad, math is hard.

[ifinnegan]

Illustrates what I wrote. Russia provided cannon fodder.

Try to pay attention.

[Reverend Wright]

Pointless to argue with these clowns.

They think the USA “won” WW1 as well because the USA was there with small numbers at the end.

[Redmen4ever]

No, Ivan, I brought up nuclear aircraft carriers. I said we had eleven of them plus a bunch of lesser aircraft carriers described as amphibious assault ships. I said this to illustrate that our side is so much bigger, multiple times bigger than your side. The NATO countries have a combined GDP of $50 trillion, whereas Russia has a GDP of $5 trillion.

https://www.worldeconomics.com/Thoughts/NATOs-Combined-GDP-is-far-larger-than-Russias.aspx

You, in typical Russian fashion, ignored this unpleasant fact and went off on your own tangent; and, after a while, forget your point of departure.

[Red6]

Read your post #144.

In that post you focus on Russia being a nuclear power and the threat this poses.

[Redmen4ever]

My first post on this thread was #16. That post was about how much bigger we are.

I take it you concede that we are enormously bigger than Russia. (That’s why you have to threaten nuclear war, isn’t it?) Our side can lose a regional war or two, and survive and, even, continue to grow. But not Russia. Russia fell apart after its war in Afghanistan. Good bye Warsaw Pact and good bye Soviet Union. Not only that, the population of Russia has been falling since 1993. Who knows whether Russia will survive or will again collapse after what was supposed to be a special military operation in Ukraine, that has turned into a war attrition.

My recurrent theme is that we are a democratic society. In spite of the problems we have, we tend to resolve or overcome these problems and to grow. The future is always our friend.

Post #144 was about the policy of Mutual Assured Destruction. Why BOTH sides had nuclear weapons and neither side used them during the cold war. And, why we can’t be so sure nowadays about Russia. Obviously. It is your side that again and again threatens nuclear war.

[Red6]

That said,

—It’s us that has used nuclear weapons on people, twice, not the Russians.

—It’s us that is invoking their use in a non-deterrent manner today. But of course if we do it, it’s OK.

—It’s us that did most the space tests.

—It’s us that did most the surface tests.

—It’s it’s us that is responsible for most of the radiation that was floating out there for a long time and a little bit to this day.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Castle_Bravo What was released in the atmosphere was pretty bad, and we could have used a lead tamper. Those retarded, backward, irrational Russians did this in some of their big tests, the most famous of these being Tsar: https://ahf.nuclearmuseum.org/ahf/history/tsar-bomba/

—Just like the Russians, we have a list of nuclear weapons associated accidents and even missing warheads:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1966_Palomares_B-52_crash
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_United_States_Air_Force_nuclear_weapons_incident
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/us-military-missing-six-nuclear-weapons-180032

—It’s us that withdrew from the Ballistic Missile Treaty.

But I get it, the evil retarded Russians that only fly propeller driven planes, where as soon as you land color disappears, the radio only plays Vangelis’s Conquest of Paradise, where everyone is drunk on Vodka and has a pet bear: https://www.facebook.com/vdpasasapetrovic/videos/-ill-must-go-right-now-to-feed-my-bear-drink-votka-and-play-balalaykaso-cute-fro/299969128903646/

I get it, we are rational, predictable, rock steady in our policies, sticking to every promise ever made and following our own rules, and everything is for “democracy, human rights, sovereignty,” save the world from “WMD (ironic, seeing how we used them, have more deployed than anyone else, the second biggest stockpile, tested more in the atmosphere... and then we want to lecture others and play some moral Godly judge on who else may have them),” and last but not least “terrorism.”

You live in a cliche, a feel-good and over simplified world and the good-guy / bad-guy model you have is outdated. This isn’t the Cold War where you have a large and Powerful Warsaw Pact and Soviet Union poised to invade the West. Today, we’re just struggling over lordship of economically valuable possessions, trying to tear these out from under Russia, and we are no better than the Russians. Economically motivated, offensive, using the same methods/MO, and 100% OK with dictators and human rights violations as long as we get control.

Before we lecture Russia about anything, maybe we should fix Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and do something about all that trade with China (PRC). If you really want to know how nasty we are, you do not need to look far: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45812399 And we simply look the other way as a US resident, a journalist working for the US media is dismembered (piece by piece) in a fellow NATO country at the order of a price we support and make sure stays in power. For enough money, a single party communist regime which had a one child policy, makes dissidents disappear, has forced abortions, questionable organ harvesting policies, oppresses religion, invaded Tibet and threatens Taiwan gets most favored trade status and our support for their WTO membership even in the same year tanks drive over pro-democracy students on Tienanmen square: https://assets.editorial.aetnd.com/uploads/2018/06/who-was-the-tank-man-of-tiananmen-squares-featured-photo.jpg We are OK with communist China, which executes more people (~8,000 per year) than any other nation on earth, has internment camps with nearly 1 million people in them! Because we care about “human rights, and democracy” so much./sarc When it suits our interests, we arm Islamist types, and that is post 9-11 in Syria.

Today, it’s about a modern form of colonialism, i.e. control of economically valuable areas. Things began to slide that way after 1991 and got much worse post 9-11. You’re not seeing us worry about the plight of people in Madagascar, and when Rwanda had their genocide we sat back and watched as possibly as many as 750,000 people were killed in part by machete. It is not without coincidence that every place we are struggling with the Russians there is an economic interest at stake. You don’t see us trying to push our way into Armenia and fix those problems. You just happen to obfuscate these conflicts with stories about democracy, human rights, sovereignty, WMD or terrorism in order to feel better about yourself, to pretend you’re some “knight in shining silver armor.”

[mass55th]

That was quite a long operation you went through. I hope you didn’t have great discomfort afterward. I had three surgeries on my abdomen within a five year period. The worst part of all my surgeries was how dry your mouth is when you wake up...like you have cotton stuffed in your mouth, and it’s hard to swallow, and talk. Of course they won’t let you drink any fluids or suck on ice chips. They give you that small straw to wet your lips, and that’s supposed to suffice.

That new process of sewing the blood vessels in the incision up is very interesting. That would certainly make it easier for the doctor to see what he’s doing, and he wouldn’t have to keep telling somebody to clear the incision of blood. I don’t know if they’re doing that here. Hopefully, I’ll never have to personally find out.

I hope your digestive issues have gone away. Nothing worse than not being able to enjoy your food without discomfort. I didn’t realize that the liver resists radiation. Nobody in my family had liver cancer. Everyone in my family smoked except for me. I’m the only one left. Both my parents and one of my sisters died of lung cancer. In my parent’s case, they received no chemo or radiation treatments. My sister had both chemo, and chest radiation, as well as radiation to her brain to prevent the cancer from going there, which of course didn’t work. She lived for 18 months after her initial diagnosis, and she had discomfort when eating because the radiation was very close to her esophagus. She ended up with radiation burn on her back, and radiation pneumonia a few months after her treatments ended. The doctor was the one who labeled it pneumonia. I’d never heard of it before.

You mentioned polio victims. When we were kids, the four of us got the first set of polio shots that came out. It was a series of three, the last shot being called a booster. The needle wasn’t the problem. About an hour or so after the shot, your arm started aching like a toothache, and it felt like lead. You could barely lift your arm. It was an intramuscular injection. The discomfort eventually went away several hours later. After the first shot, none of us wanted to go back for the other two, but we did. I think back then, you had to be inoculated for polio in order to attend school.

It’s been wonderful talking to you. Keep me posted on how you are doing. Stay well, and God Bless.

[Menes]

Hello again Ma‘am,

yes, it was a chore going through all of this, but, God willing, I survived through all of it.

It seems to me that you and your poor son had to go through far worse than I did🙁 And yes, after surgery to the digestive system, one is not allowed to ingest anything. It sounds absolutely horrible 🙁, but doctors wish to eschew any chance of an infection in the patient’s stomach cavity.

I am extremely sorry to hear that so many of your dear ones suffered from lung cancer.
Tobacco, if it were a sentient being, would have an awful lot to answer for., and until a short while ago, I had no clue about nicotine being almost as addictive as crack-cocaine. Heavens!🙁 My mother was a heavy smoker back in the days, but she stopped when I began to get asthma as a ten-year old. Still, I believe it did her bad, ultimately, as she passed away at 67 of a brain tumor.

Strangely, after my operation, I felt neither hungry nor thirsty - it was only later when I realized that I had ben fed and watered intravenously. Still, after no more than two days, I was taken off the feeding tube, and I was able to eat and drink of my own accord. I even could get up and take a few steps to get some water. How good has God been to me!

And what concerns the vaccinations against polio: I really am happy that in my time they were able to give us the vaccines orally on a sugarcube. The vaccine tasted a bit like strong alcohol, but I cannot recall having any side effects from the vaccination, and I am happy about that.

Ma‘am, I now would like to wish you and your dear ones a wonderful and blessed Sunday, and all the best🙏🏻

May we soon read each other again 🙂

[BroJoeK]

Redmen4ever to Red6: "No, Ivan, I brought up nuclear aircraft carriers.
I said we had eleven of them plus a bunch of lesser aircraft carriers described as amphibious assault ships.
I said this to illustrate that our side is so much bigger, multiple times bigger than your side."

Russia's Cruiser Moskva,
converted to stationary submarine by Ukrainians:

To sharpen your point just a little:

1. Outside its submarine force, which is no joke, Russia does not have a serious navy.
   Russia's one aircraft carrier spends nearly all of its time in docks being repaired.
   Russia's Black Sea Fleet has now been largely converted into stationary submarines by Ukraine's navy yard workers.

2. By most countries definitions of "aircraft carriers", the US has 20:

   

   • 1 - Ford (+2 more in construction)
   • 10 - Nimetzes
   • 2 - Americas (+3 more ordered/in construction)
   • 7 - Wasps

3. In addition, virtually every US Navy surface ship carries some aircraft -- anything which can take off and land vertically, which includes:
   • Helicopters on all ships, types depending on ship size (over 160 active ships).
   • V-22 Osprey's on larger ships like San Antonios (12+4), Pullers (4+2) and even Harper's Ferrys (10).
   • STOVL Harriers and Lightnings in emergencies only on smaller ships.

   

4. The real near-peer threat to the US Navy is not so much Russia as it is China, whose navy already outnumbers ours, is growing at a rate of roughly 30 ships per year, while the US struggles to add even 10 ships per year.

5. Yes, no doubt, US qualities outweigh some of China's quantities, but, as VI Lenin is alleged to have remarked, "quantity has a quality all its own".
   Vlad the Invader is now testing Marx's theory in Ukraine as, doubtless, will China's Xi-snake in Taiwan, should Vlad prove successful.

6. Finally, some argue that what matters is not so much numbers of navy warships, but rather numbers of vertical launch system (VLS) cells.
   Of those, the US and our allies have around 11,000 on 186 ships, while China has around 3,000 on 41 ships.

Next, on the question of GDP's, I think most people understand there are at least two different ways to calculate GDP, one called "nominal" the other "purchase price parity" (PPP).
Each is useful for certain types of analyses.
I think Purchase Price Parity (PPP) could be more useful for comparing potential military capabilities.
Using PPP then, here is how the world's major economies' GDPs line up in 2024:

1. $35 trillion -- China
2. +5 trillion -- Russia
3. +2 trillion -- Iran
4. +~sh*t -- NoKo

   =$42 trillion for the new Axis of Evil Dictators

1. $29 trillion -- USA
2. + 27 trillion -- European Union
3. + 10 trillion -- Non-EU NATO allies
4. + 17 trillion -- US Pacific allies
5. +20 trillion -- Friendly Indo-Pacific non-allies

   = $103 trillion for US, US allies and Asian friendlies.

These numbers do not include relatively friendly countries to the US in Central & South America, Africa or the Middle East.

[Red6]

And if you look at population, the number of men reaching military age, industrial capacity, key high tech required for the military, the number of allies, what these allies can realistically bring to the table considering their own issues, you quickly realize that this idea of a Russian military monster poised to invade other nations after Ukraine (unless we stop them there) is junk.

The Russians are the underdog, not us. We are the ones doing the pushing, not the Russians. But that doesn’t stop us from using Cold War era cliches and threat pictures.

Please decide what it’s going to be!

—Are the Russians this huge threat.

—Or are they in reality weak in conventional terms.

But don’t play it both ways like many here do, pretending Russia is a huge threat, but then not, however it fits into their argument at the moment.

[Red6]

Before the wars begin, Russia had 47% our air force, 55% our army, and 43% our navy, they have no real equivalent to our 5th gen fighters, no real equal to our B2, less than 1/2 the military satellites...

But now there are folks here trying very hard to pretend like Russia was on a world conquest.

At least stay consistent!

[BroJoeK]

Red6: "Please decide what it’s going to be!
—Are the Russians this huge threat.
—Or are they in reality weak in conventional terms.
But don’t play it both ways like many here do, pretending Russia is a huge threat, but then not, however it fits into their argument at the moment."

The answer is, by their nature, Russian leaders have always been insanely evil, but never stupid or suicidal.

For an example, we can consider Stalin in 1939 -- his whole idea in signing the pact with Hitler was to encourage Hitler to invade France and other Western countries, let them fight it out until Germany was fatally weakened, as it had been in the First World War, then Stalin could easily invade and complete the Communist Revolution throughout Europe.

Stalin never fantasized that Soviet Russia was the most powerful military in the world, but he could well imagine ways to weaken his enemies enough to make the USSR just strong enough to win.
Nor did Stalin underestimate Hitler -- because Stalin knew, factually, that Hitler could not be ready to invade the USSR before 1942.
Stalin did not think Hitler was crazy enough to invade the USSR before Germany was ready for war on that scale, and therefore Stalin ignored warnings to the contrary.

Stalin was correct in calculating that if Hitler invaded in 1941, Germany was not yet ready and would therefore lose the war.
Stalin was incorrect in supposing that Hitler was an entirely rational actor.

My point here is to illustrate that historically, the mind of a Russian leader is highly calculating, precise and brutal, like any predator overlooking the Serengeti Plain at the herds of prey, he's searching for weaker animals and tactics he can use to attack them.
Maybe he can create panic in the herd, force them to flee and that will expose the ones who can't keep up.

Likewise, Vlad the Invader knows he doesn't have to be the strongest military in the world, he just has to spook the herd (i.e., NATO), so that he can pick off a weak victim here and there -- Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova... and if those work out, why not Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania next?
And surely Belarusians understand that once Lukashenko unfortunately falls from his balcony, or suffers a heart attack, Belarus too will be annexed into the belly of the Russian Bear.
Indeed, that could happen rather quickly if Vlad the Invader uses Belarus to launch his nukes against Ukraine and/or NATO.
There won't be much left of Belarus to oppose Vlad's annexation.
And whyever do Kazaks imagine they are somehow independent of Mother Russia?

Bottom line: regardless of GDP's or military hardware numbers, Russia's Vlad the Invader, China's Xi-snake and Iran's Moolah Mullahs see weakness and division in the Western style democracies and that becomes their opportunity to "spook the herd" and so pick off our weakest members.

So the issue today is, can we and our allies stand strong enough to deter the New Axis of Evil Dictators, and if not deter them, then defeat them militarily?

Everything else is just a lot of noise and nonsense.

[Redmen4ever]

Hi Bro!

You make quite a few valid points in your several recent posts.

The relative size of China to Russia; i.e., China is massively larger than Russia, plus is growing, plus has a diversified economy (while Russia’s economy is little more than extracting minerals).

Our job isn’t to defeat either of these countries, but to deter aggression by either of them (or by others), hoping that eventually something happens and each of them joins with the growing number of countries oriented to trade, open economies and at least partially market-oriented economics.

So, of the two (Russia and China), which seems more successful and optimistic and, therefore, interested in peace; and, which seems less successful, and therefore more pessimistic, and interested in having enemies if only for the purpose of domestic consumption?

I believe we can and should work with China, in part to keep China and Russia from having a tight alliance (like Nixon and Henry Kissinger’s policy), and because we have shared interests.

As for Russia, we should make it as clear as possible that - regardless of NATO and EU expansion - we would not threaten Russia within its internationally-recognized borders if it withdrew its armies to those borders.

Should Russia do that (withdraw its armies), we can address matters such as sanctions and division of the Arctic Ocean into economic zones of the Arctic nations.

[Red6]

Sure,

Russia withdrawals it’s military from everywhere and goes back inside its borders.

We make more promises. Because we never lie, never withdraw from a deal, never cheat, our word can be trusted. /Sarc

We keep our forces deployed everywhere, even in places like Iraq where they asked us to leave, repeatedly and we just ignore them.

https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fhq2sp7atgxa91.jpg

Seriously, how old are you?

[Redmen4ever]

Hi Red6, I’m old enough to know a communist.

[BroJoeK]

Redmen4ever: "I believe we can and should work with China, in part to keep China and Russia from having a tight alliance (like Nixon and Henry Kissinger’s policy), and because we have shared interests."

I do understand your point and agree the old US strategic policy going back to Nixon & Kissinger times was, in effect, to be a better friend to both China and Russia than they were to each other.
That policy makes lots of sense, especially when China and Russia were going at each other hammer and tong, so to speak, over border issues and other disputes.

The problem is, times have changed drastically in the past 50 years, and many assumptions of the 1970s are no longer valid.

New Axis of Evil Dictators:
Vlad the Invader, Xi-Snake, Little Kim, Moolah Mullahs

1. For one thing, Chinese and Russian leaders worked for many years to resolve their border disputes at Demsky (Zhenbao) and Bolshoy Ussuriysky Islands, and those seem to be over, for now.

2. For another, Russia's Vlad the Invader and China's Xi-Snake seem to be great friends and allies, what was their term -- "unlimited partnership", on February 4, 2022, clearing the way for Vlad's invasion of Ukraine?

3. In the meantime, China has grown into an economic and political giant, far surpassing Russia's reduced stature in the world.

4. Most important, Russia and China (along with Iran & NoKo) share common grievances against "the West" and "American hegemons" and "NATO expansion" or "Pacific Allies expansion" into their territories in Ukraine, Taiwan, the South China Sea, the border with India, Georgia, etc., etc.

The result is, the old geo-strategic political balance of power game -- of playing off China & Russia against each other -- simply doesn't work, and can't work anymore, without providing one or the other, or both, with major unacceptable concessions, such as Ukraine, Taiwan, South China Sea, etc.

So we are now, despite everything, confronted with a new Axis of Evil Dictators who must be addressed as such, deterred wherever possible and defeated when necessary.
There's no going back to the old-times, at least with the current generation of leadership in Russia and China.

When they are finally gone, then... who knows?
But until then, we just have to deal with what is now.

Redmen4ever: "As for Russia, we should make it as clear as possible that - regardless of NATO and EU expansion - we would not threaten Russia within its internationally-recognized borders if it withdrew its armies to those borders."

Then, I'm sorry, but you don't understand what's really going on.
Vlad the Invader, Stalin the Empire Builder, Peter the Great, Ivan the Terrible -- none of these people ever wanted "security guarantees".
What they wanted was conquest and domination of ever-bigger empires -- prisons of nations, a "Russkiy Mir" which predated the USSR's international communist revolution and survived the Soviets' collapse in 1991.

Russkiy Mir is not about finding peace behind secure borders, but rather about restoring the glorious past and dominance of Russia over its weaker neighbors.

As such, Russkiy Mir can only be opposed and deterred where possible, defeated when that is necessary.

The alternative is a return to something resembling the World of Empires in 1910 -- Old Empires that two World Wars and a Cold War with over 100 million deaths were fought to destroy -- we are now going to roll over and let the Old Empires return without a fight, only a whimper?

1910 World of Empires:

[PIF]

I think the easiest way to explain “Russkiy Mir” is to say that the Russian border ends where and when they say it ends.

[BroJoeK]

PIF: "I think the easiest way to explain “Russkiy Mir” is to say that the Russian border ends where and when they say it ends."

"Putin's Brain", Alexander Dugin:

That's what Russians themselves tell us.

A partial list of Russian leaders publicly supporting Russkiy Mir ideals includes:

1. Vladimir Putin (President)
   "Ukraine is not just a neighboring country for us.
   It is an inalienable part of our own history, culture, and spiritual space."

2. Alexander Dugin (geopolitical philosopher)
   "The American empire should be destroyed."
   "If you are in favour of global liberal hegemony, you are the enemy."

3. Dmitry Medvedev (Russian Security Council)
   "Russia must destroy and fully dismantle the Ukrainian state"

   Putin's government:

   

4. Sergei Lavrov (Foreign Minister)
   "I believe that attempts to drive a wedge between our peoples will fail, although by and large this is the chief aim.
   Somebody is very reluctant to see the restoration of the historical brotherhood of Russians and Ukrainians."

5. Nikolai Patrushev (Russian Security Council -- psychological projectionist)
   "The increasingly adventurous and aggressive policy of the U.S., Britain, the EU and Japan … is based on a complete detachment from reality, the desire to construct their own imaginary world, which they will rule.
   Such an escape from reality is a real threat to all of humanity."

6. Vyacheslav Nikonov (political scientist, grandson of Vyacheslav Molotov)
   In April 2022, he declared the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine to be a holy war and the Russian forces to be the embodiment of good.

7. Vladimir Solovyov (Russia-1, TV presenter)
   "If you think we'll stop at Ukraine, think it through 300 times.
   I'll remind you that Ukraine is just an intermediate step in the establishment of the strategic security of the Russian Federation."

   Putin's mouthpieces
   Simonyan, Solovyov, Skabeyeva, Nordkin

   "We're fighting against satanists.
   This is a holy war and we have to win!"

   "Firstly, it's a war for Russia's survival.
   Nobody's planning to give up.
   This will be a long war and not just with Ukraine.
   Ukraine is just a fragment.
   If they manage to push us back further, they won't stop.
   We need to prepare for a long, serious and great war."

8. Dmitry Kiselyov (Russia-1 & others, TV presenter)

9. Olga Skabeyeva (Russia-1, "Iron Doll" TV presenter)
   "Now we will have to demilitarise the whole of Nato.
   I've said it many times, then people gasp in shock.
   This is what we call World War Three."

10. Margarita Simonyan (RT, TV presenter)
    "Our most important task is to free normal people.
    Free them from the guns held against their backs by these Nazis."

    "Personally, I see the path of a third world war as the most realistic.
    Knowing us, knowing our leader, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, knowing how things work around here . . .
    I think that the most improbable outcome—that it will all end in a nuclear strike—is still more probable than defeat.
    This horrifies me, on the one hand, but on the other I understand that this is how it is."

11. Yevgeny Popov (Russia-1, Moscow Duma)

My point is, Russkiy Mir comes from the top of Russia's government and involves all levels of the Kremlin's Ministry for Agitation and Propaganda.