Posted on 05/03/2024 8:03:30 AM PDT by janetjanet998
Election 2024: Trump Now +10 Over Biden
Despite being on trial in New York City, former President Donald Trump has widened his lead over President Joe Biden during the past month.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, in a three-way contest between Biden, Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 46% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose Trump, 36% would vote for Biden and nine percent (9%) would vote for Kennedy. In April, Trump led by 6 points, 44% to 38% for Biden, with RFK Jr. at 10%. Four percent (4%) now say they’d vote for some other candidate, and another four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording
Yep, they stole the last one.... no doubt about it.. but no covid last time.
Biden can’t hide in a basement, they can’t just release pre=recorded edited things and claim he’s great.
He’s got a record now and it sucks.. he isn’t any more feeble than he was in 2020... 4 years we’ve watched this Potato Puppet... they can’t just project crap on him and claim its true...
They are desperate for a conviction any conviction, no matter how ridiculous, because it is literally the ONLY thing their polling says may cause people to not vote for him, that don’t already intend not to.
Personally I think most that say they would not vote for him after a conviction, won’t follow through on that... At least the ones who aren’t already adamantly not going vote for him anyway.
All they are going to do is just motivate more people to Vote Trump at the end of the day IMHO, even if you aren’t fond of Trump, the clear politicalization of the Justice System to just “get Trump” doesn’t play will with middle America.
I would bet at the end of the day, the same, or more people, will be inclined to vote Trump, that are motivated away from him, if they get some garbage conviction on the nonsense they are trying to get him on.
However, the polling does show that is the only thing that may motivate people away from Trump, so the Dems really have no choice than to make that play, because its all they got.
polls don’t matter-who COUNTs the votes is what matters. That’s what concerns me...democrats cheat their way in when all else fails.
“polls don’t matter-who COUNTs the votes is what matters. “
To a point...but cheating can only go SO FAR when the number of votes needed to be manufactured, in say Detroit, exceeds the voting population of Detroit 5-FOLD, which is now what the Democrats are facing.
Their technique of cheating works quite well in fairly close races, but doesn’t stand a chance in blowouts, which is what we’re quickly starting to see in the polling.
Watch the Senate, those races are going to be BEYOND nasty...
The Dems know, know they are losing WV... so that puts the senate at 50/50, so they have to work to try to keep any other R from winning a current D seat, and with the current map and political climate, this is virtually impossible.. so they are going to go absolutely bonkers in these senate races... The R Senate Candidates in these red states with blue senators better be ready, because they are going to be a level of nasty you haven’t even seen yet.
I don’t see Biden holding at all, but they are going to have to work and assume he is, and under that model they can’t afford to lose a single Blue Senate seat.. no Sitting GOP seat is remotely under threat, but there are many Dem seats in Trump States that they are going to be desperate to hold.
NOt that the Presidential race will be a cakewalk, but really that’s mostly white noise, everyone knows these two... and they have thrown everything and the kitchen sink already at Trump and he’s still ticking... these Senate Candidates? They are going to face a level of ugly they have never seen .
At this rate they are going to have to cut counting for 8 hours.
"Thinking person" . . . geez.
I never cease to be amazed at the delusional nature of my fellow Boomers when it comes to the true nature of our political/governmental system. As if "voting" nowadays makes any difference.
I won't make any predictions about this poll being true.
But I will point out that Trump was not on the ballot in 2022. All we had to vote for in 2022 were a bunch of under performing Republican congress critters.
Yes, you have to beat cheating by flooding the system.
WI, fortunately did something about a lot of the 2020 hanky panky that went on there, I know the MSM has ignored it, but WI had many many court cases that declared that yes, alot of what went on in WI as illegal.... and they also modified their laws etc as well..
I see ZERO chance at Biden in WI in 2020.
So, that means the only path they have is, holding MI and PA and winning AZ.
And I know they are trying to whip the abortion thing up in AZ to try to swing that state, but I am dubious it will work. The 1860s law that cause them to be hopeful has been repealed, and I have no doubt they will get some abortion ballot initiative on the nov ballot... but I really really don’t see it being able to swing the state to Biden on that issue... I know they are hoping it will, but I just doubt it.
But for arguments sake, with WI off the table, and while I know polling is tight, with the 3rd parties on the ballot, and much of the things they did to tip the scales in 2020 off the table, I don’t think WI has any chance of going Bidnen.
I also don’t see any way Biden can fairly win MI, but unlike WI, MI did not do anything to really clean up its issues out of 2020, however if Trump does end up 9 points in the real vote, thats too much for the fraud to counter.
PA is probably the one that fraud/malfeasance could keep in the Potato’s corner... Absolutely no way he can win the legitimate vote, but given just how much they were able to fraud in 2020, and get away with because the GOP of PA were and still are active accomplices with the Dems to keep Trump out... DO NOT KID YOURSELF... they may be able to steal PA.
Trump is up, and up solidly here no doubt, but he was in 2020 as well, and we all know what happened there. The GOP of PA has done and has no intentions of ever doing anything about the malfeasance that went on in 2020, so fully expect it again in 2024... only hope is Trump lead is so large it overwhelms their ability to fraud. Before 2020 I would have told you 5 points was more than enough, after 2020, Trump better be close to 10 up to have prayer.
Right now momentum looks good for Trump to be in a position to be able to pull that off, we will see.
The only people I know who actually *like* Biden (as opposed to choosing him because they dislike Trump) have doctorates. It takes a lot of education to perform the mental gymnastics necessary to see Biden as a “good” president.
Thanks HamiltonJay,
Your posts are always appreciated by this Freeper.(Especially on Pennsylvania politics)
I believe these poll numbers if you talk to real actual people. The problem is that Rasmussen is not taking into account all the millions of democrat phantom voters. The fake phantom voters are good for another 5-8 points toward Puppet Biden. As it stand now, Trump would beat Puppet Biden by 1-2 points even though (in reality) he would win by 12-15 points.
Never underestimate the % of morons, leftist hacks and stupid irrational, leftard females factor. The election wont be a landslide but I do hope I'm wrong about that.
2022, the overturn of Roe gave the Dems a gift.... that and incompetence in GOP leadership, like wasting resources on unwinnable races like the PA Senate race.
OZ never stood any chance, yet they burned more than 100M trying to put lipstick on that POS... Countless competitive house races could have been won if that money had been spent elsewhere.
Abortion is still there, and dems will try to leverage it sure, but now her we are 2 years later, and the world hasn’t come to an end like the baby butchers claimed... so, I am not saying it won’t have any impact, but its impact will be limited.
I have said this elsewhere, but watch the Senate races, they are going to be NASTY... BEYOND NASTY.... Especially in red/Trump states that have a Dem Senator up for re-election. They know WV is gone, and with it the Senate is back to 50/50 so they are going to do anything in their power to keep from losing another Senate seat.... Should Biden pull out the win (which I don’t think he can, but they are going to have to act and work like he can) they can’t afford for 1 more Senate Seat to be lost... If Trump wins they get the majority without any more wins.. but if Biden wins, they lose the majority if 1 more blue senator loses, and they know damned well what that means... So expect the races in places like OH and MO etc to be NASTY....
The disaster scenario:
The House goes Dem. They take their seats Jan 3, 3 days before Jan 6. That majority may try to deny the counting on Jan 6 based on whatever rationale. There will be a handful of Dem members reluctant to do this, but there may be some GOPe members willing to help.
The Senate may stay Dem but with the same margin of 1. To support refusal to seat the new President, they would need 60 votes. Unless they trigger the nuclear option that says a bare majority is all required, and if there is any issue that could get that support it would be this one. Manchin and Sinema are the current obstacles to that, but they will be gone.
With a declaration that Trump is ineligible, they could seat the 2nd place candidate, Biden.
It’s a very steep mountain for them to climb, but that would be the mechanism — or perhaps the mechanism that SHOULD have been used in 2020 — where state legislators decide which electors are valid, and Michigan, Pennsylvania have Dem legislatures.
“Demoncrats might now consider assassination as their only option”
I figure that’s always been one of their top three options on the “To Do” list.
That’s one reason why, now that he’s pretty much trapped in NYC, he’s planning rallies in the Bronx, etc. Making lemonade out of lemons.
“God moves in a mysterious way,
His wonders to perform;
...
He treasures up his bright designs,
And works His sovereign will.” - Wm. Cowper
Thank you.
Well, sadly for PA at the Senate level, Casey will almost certainly win. McCormick is a better candidate than OZ, but only marginally so, and that’s a low bar to beat. McCormick is just another Wall Street/McRomBush/Establishment/County Club Republican... his ads are trying to present him as something else, but end of the day the guys a card carrying member of the WEF.... The only hope I see for him winning would be if Trump wins the state BUGE, and I do mean Huge, and drags McCormick across on his coattails... And I’m not talking Trump wins by 5 or something in a 3 way race, I mean Trump will have to almost certainly win a flat out majority, and a pretty sizeable one, for there to be any shot at beating Casey.
Casey is a lousy campaigner, and has next to no personality, but he’s also from a family name that is an institution here, and manages to keep out of the limelight especially around the more radical leftist crap that is pushed. Don’t get me wrong he’s a reliable vote for them, but he isn’t some radical in your face guy, he keeps his head down.
Casey honestly has never faced a serious threat since he won the Senate Seat and has never lost a statewide race in PA, and has pretty much won every senate race by 10 or more. Yes, it is true every election more and more people who voted for or remember his father have died, but the GOP generally doesn’t even take the field in PA when he’s on the ballot... they just find some warm body to fill the seat, then only offer lip service and/or token support, because its basically a write off.
Trump is on the ballot, is it is a presidential year, so the dynamics will definitely be different than anything Casey has faced in the past. Last time he had an election align with a presidential election was 2012, which really had no real impact on his race. Re-election of Obama and Casey outperformed Obama in the state. This time he’s facing the attempted re-election of a VERY unpopular president, and an economy that more than 2/3 of PA voters say is BAD... I don’t know if you can successfully paint Casey with Biden’s failures... though I am sure they will try.
I doubt highly that Casey will win this election by 10+, but its very very hard for me to see McCormick getting within about 5 of Casey, short of Trump winning huge and having some big coattails. Dems still have a big registration advantage, though its been improving lately, they are actually down registered voters, while I and R registrations are up, but its still a big margin.
Will see how it goes, but at this point, there is really nothing to indicate that Casey isn’t going to win comfortably... This could of course change, and I do expect that McCormick will almost certainly end the day better than any previous person to run against Casey for Senate.. I don’t see any way Casey wins by double digits, as long as McCormick doesn’t do anything massively stupid, and just runs a “good” campaign, I would think he should be within 10 of Casey... within 5? Well, Trump’s coattails would be the only way I see that as possible.
Trump should mainly campaign in districts that have a Senator or Representative in a toss up race in toss up states. Both would benefit.
All these polls will tighten up a month before elections
Seen this many times before
The important is the graph line. The tendency , that’s the important thing
We’ve all seen, over the years, various pollsters are way outside the norm (usually Q to the left and this cycle Ras to the right). Others “made their bones” on being outside (Zogby in 1996 and 2000, Baris and Trafalgar in 2016). This cycle Ras is too high for Trump.
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