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Thank you.

Well, sadly for PA at the Senate level, Casey will almost certainly win. McCormick is a better candidate than OZ, but only marginally so, and that’s a low bar to beat. McCormick is just another Wall Street/McRomBush/Establishment/County Club Republican... his ads are trying to present him as something else, but end of the day the guys a card carrying member of the WEF.... The only hope I see for him winning would be if Trump wins the state BUGE, and I do mean Huge, and drags McCormick across on his coattails... And I’m not talking Trump wins by 5 or something in a 3 way race, I mean Trump will have to almost certainly win a flat out majority, and a pretty sizeable one, for there to be any shot at beating Casey.

Casey is a lousy campaigner, and has next to no personality, but he’s also from a family name that is an institution here, and manages to keep out of the limelight especially around the more radical leftist crap that is pushed. Don’t get me wrong he’s a reliable vote for them, but he isn’t some radical in your face guy, he keeps his head down.

Casey honestly has never faced a serious threat since he won the Senate Seat and has never lost a statewide race in PA, and has pretty much won every senate race by 10 or more. Yes, it is true every election more and more people who voted for or remember his father have died, but the GOP generally doesn’t even take the field in PA when he’s on the ballot... they just find some warm body to fill the seat, then only offer lip service and/or token support, because its basically a write off.

Trump is on the ballot, is it is a presidential year, so the dynamics will definitely be different than anything Casey has faced in the past. Last time he had an election align with a presidential election was 2012, which really had no real impact on his race. Re-election of Obama and Casey outperformed Obama in the state. This time he’s facing the attempted re-election of a VERY unpopular president, and an economy that more than 2/3 of PA voters say is BAD... I don’t know if you can successfully paint Casey with Biden’s failures... though I am sure they will try.

I doubt highly that Casey will win this election by 10+, but its very very hard for me to see McCormick getting within about 5 of Casey, short of Trump winning huge and having some big coattails. Dems still have a big registration advantage, though its been improving lately, they are actually down registered voters, while I and R registrations are up, but its still a big margin.

Will see how it goes, but at this point, there is really nothing to indicate that Casey isn’t going to win comfortably... This could of course change, and I do expect that McCormick will almost certainly end the day better than any previous person to run against Casey for Senate.. I don’t see any way Casey wins by double digits, as long as McCormick doesn’t do anything massively stupid, and just runs a “good” campaign, I would think he should be within 10 of Casey... within 5? Well, Trump’s coattails would be the only way I see that as possible.