Posted on 02/29/2024 4:12:19 PM PST by lightman
Despite suffering a humiliating loss in her home state of South Carolina on Feb. 24 and another in Michigan on Feb. 27, GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley has vowed to fight on.
Ms. Haley’s campaign said she would stay in the race at least through March 5, Super Tuesday—the biggest primary day comprising 15 states and American Samoa.
Nonetheless, in an interview with The Epoch Times, experts share why Ms. Haley may be staying in the race.
1. Give Voters an Alternative to Biden, Trump
Ms. Haley has repeatedly said that she wants to give the American people a choice that is not President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump, as desired by a significant proportion of Republicans.
“We can’t afford four more years of Biden’s failures or Trump’s lack of focus,” said Ms. Haley, citing issues such as the national debt, economy, education, wars abroad, and the border and fentanyl crisis. She also remarked that the two are divisive.
After all, “it may be that Haley simply wants to hammer home the point that many GOP voters are still looking for an alternative,” David Redlawsk, a political science and international affairs professor at the University of Delaware, told The Epoch Times. “She wants to give Republican voters in all remaining states a choice, not just voters in the first few states,” said Aubrey Jewett, a political science professor at the University of Central Florida.
“This is the ‘democracy’ argument—that elections without choices are undemocratic and the people that don’t get to vote until March or April or May are just as deserving of having choices as those in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada,” he added.
In the last three primary contests, Ms. Haley racked up between 26 percent to 40 percent of the votes President Trump would need to win the general election. But in the two contests where Ms. Haley won around 40 percent, a sizable portion of them have been Democrats and independents, as New Hampshire was a semi-open primary and South Carolina was an open primary.
Additionally, polling shows that a majority of voters do not want a Biden-Trump rematch. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, 67 percent of those surveyed are “tired of seeing the same candidates in presidential elections and want someone new.”
2. She Has the Campaign Funding
Ms. Haley has the funding to sustain a campaign. It even raised more than $1 million in the 24 hours after the double-digit defeat in South Carolina, according to the campaign.
Ms. Haley, an accountant, has run a fiscally disciplined campaign, unlike former Gov. Ron DeSantis, who burned through cash. She held fundraisers over the past several weeks, garnering millions of dollars.
After all, continuing in a race depends on having the money and resources to do so, said Mr. Jewett.
Moreover, “she’s on the ballot where she’s going to be on the ballot,” GOP strategist Matt Dole told The Epoch Times.
“She doesn’t need to spend any money if she doesn’t want to spend it,” he added.
However, the funding has not been all positive.
First, President Trump’s campaign has significantly more cash than Ms. Haley’s.
Second, the Koch Network aligned-Americans for Prosperity (AFP) Action announced on Feb. 25 that it would cut off its funding for Ms. Haley’s campaign, which the largest conservative grassroots organization in the United States endorsed in November.
After Ms. Haley’s loss in South Carolina, AFP Action decided to “take stock” of the circumstances and concluded that no “outside group can make a material difference to widen her path to victory.”
“Losing AFP Action’s support certainly makes it harder to get her message out for Super Tuesday in any case,” said Mr. Redlawsk.
“The AFP’s decision to turn off the spigot of funding for Nikki Haley will, as it turns out, have the same effect as turning that spigot on: Nikki Haley at home after the convention deciding what’s next for a wounded political brand,” said Mr. Dole.
In a statement, Ms. Haley’s campaign expressed appreciation for AFP Action’s support and called the group an “ally in the fight for freedom and conservative government.”
3. Position Herself for 2028
As Ms. Haley’s path to the GOP nod this year has all but closed, there is the possibility of her running for the White House in 2028. If President Biden or President Trump won in November, both would be ineligible for reelection. In 2028, President Biden will be 86 years old, while President Trump will be 81.
If Ms. Haley were to run in four years, she would have millions of dollars ready to hit the ground running. In addition to her own campaign funds, Ms. Haley has two super political action committees or super PACs—Stand for America PAC and SFA Fund Inc.—both of which will likely fundraise even after she drops out of the campaign—an inevitable move. Ms. Haley’s PACs fundraised even before she entered the race in February 2023.
Granted, what the GOP will look like in 2028 will be determined as four years is a lifetime in politics. And the Trump wing of the party may not dictate the direction of the party, said Mr. Jewett.
“Perhaps she also thinks this has the potential to position her in some way for 2028,” said Mr. Redlawsk.
4. Establish Herself as the Leader of the Anti-Trump GOP
Ms. Haley appeared to establish herself as the leader of the GOP wing of the Republican Party that does not support President Trump—a significant plurality whom the former president will mathematically need to win in November.
“Nearly every day, Trump drives people away,” she said in her speech after her defeat in South Carolina.
But “along with the departure of Ronna McDaniel as head of the RNC, the GOP remains solidly the party of Trump,” Daniel Cronrath, a professor in the government department at Florida State University at Jacksonville, told The Epoch Times.
Nonetheless, said Mr. Cronrath, “Most of Haley’s support is coming from so-called Never Trump Republicans and independents“ as ”Haley may be positioning herself as the future leader of a post-Trump GOP assuming Trump’s form of populism erodes, and there is a reset.”
However, Ms. Haley possibly “thinks this has the potential to position her in some way for 2028,” said Mr. Redlawsk.
Moreover, Mr. Redlawsk added: “By 2028, it will likely be a different environment, and she may be showing that she has some strength even with Trump around.
“In some ways, I agree it doesn’t seem like a great strategy, but at a minimum, she may be building credibility with the non-Trump wing of the party, which may be a significant factor in 2028, especially if Trump loses in 2024.”
Furthermore, said Mr. Jewett, “She wants to represent the anti-Trump wing of the party.”
Mr. Jewett went on to note that “according to polls, there is a block of Republicans who have indicated that they do not like Trump, and so her candidacy may represent their views and fight back against the idea that the Republican Party and Donald Trump’s campaign are one in the same entity.”
Indeed, he added: “She is playing the long game and positioning herself for a future run in 2028 after Trump is off the political stage.
“She might feel that staying in the race will make her the frontrunner next time around. She is gambling that staying in the race will not permanently alienate the current Trump base that makes up the majority of voters.”
In the meantime, “the media is covering her more and in a more friendly way as an anti-Trump candidate than they were before Iowa,” said Mr. Dole.
5. Wait Out Trump’s Legal Battles
President Trump has been indicted in Manhattan, Georgia, and two federal cases, totaling 91 charges. He has pleaded not guilty to all the charges.
However, President Trump could secure the 1,215 delegates needed to be the GOP nominee by the end of Super Tuesday and, therefore, before the trials begin, according to an analysis by The Epoch Times.
But were President Trump to fall short of the magic number and be convicted, it could change the dynamics of the race. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, 55 percent of Republicans would not support the former president if he is found guilty. Even congressional Republicans reportedly said they could not or might not support him were he to be convicted.
Nonetheless, in the event Republicans abandon President Trump in response to a conviction, Ms. Haley could be in a prime position to be the nominee, given the funding she has and the campaign infrastructure in place. While those who suspended their campaign could jump back in, it would likely take time to get their bands back together and campaign in the remaining primary states.
“If Trump were to experience a drop in support given his potential legal woes, the GOP could have a contested convention where Haley and others battle for the nomination,” said Mr. Cronrath. “The 1976 Republican National Convention was the last election in which either party did not have their candidates selected prior to the convention.”
TRUMP OR BUST
Didn’t we go “Democrat lite” with Romney in 2012?
She can’t win because she can’t pick up enough Democrats to offset the loss of Republicans. Romney was the last hurrah.
I was getting Nikki texts on my phone until I blocked them.
It’s helping Trump, and hurting Democrats. As long as the primary is on, even if it isn’t competitive, it means more attention for Trump, and it starves attention from the Democrats.
Per FR rules, I didn’t read the article.
Is one of them to get railed on the road while her husband is deployed?
Something Trump “probably shouldn’t have said”:
“Nikki Haley is in charge of security. We offered her 10,000 people, soldiers, national guards. Whatever they want. They turned it down”.
—Trump
Nancy Pelosi was the correct subject, not Nikki.
MSM didn’t flinch, but wait til November!
The DS is pushing her.
There are TWO actual reasons:
1: Hoping that Trump will be assassinated, and she will be able to to step into the Vacuum.
2: The suckers (although fewer of them) are still giving her money, so she figures she might as well collect as much dough as she can and squirrel it away, because barring #1 happening, her political career is over.
Jeb! is that you???
Same as the Bidens’ reason: CCP cash.
There’s sufficient reasons, and then there’s real reason. :)
#5 is no reason at all, but whatever.
I say she’s staying in because she wants to be POTUS. She knows that won’t happen. The money is a consolation prize, as is hating on Trump. But if she had her pick of 3 things:
winning the presidency,
making a lot of money from the run,
and sticking it to Trump,
it’s pretty obvious which one she’d pick.
Nikita and Rhonda have been assured Trump will be absent from the ballot, by any means necessary.
Most Republicans *despise* Nymphrata now, as I do. She could not win an election for meter maid now.
Nikki is keeping her toe in the race because the RINOs are hoping Trump gets kicked out of the contention by all the Democrats lawsuits and she can step in for the nomination.
I realize that MANY FR-ers don’t like her at all.
When she began her campaign, I thought she might at least have something to offer to the discourse (and President Trump will need a Vice Presidential candidate)
However, the way she’s campaigned has really turned me off.
I wish she’d just step aside now.
(She’s a whore.)
Agree with you both.
Ikki Haley is the current Uniparty stalking horse.
Just like Jeb! Bush was.
Which one is Rhonda?
Rhonda Santis.
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