Have this feeling that the crooks who stole the election in 2020 just aren't going to risk stealing votes for porridge brains like last time either.
Posted on 02/16/2024 2:02:52 AM PST by Redmen4ever
In a hypothetical 2024 presidential matchup, Biden receives 45% support to Trump’s 47% in a Fox News survey of Michigan registered voters . . .
In a potential five-way race, Trump’s advantage over Biden widens to 5 points (42% vs. 37%), with third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receiving 11%, Jill Stein 3% and Cornel West 2%.
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
NC - Trump leads Biden in a two-way 50 to 45; and, by 9 points (!) in a five-way (46 to 37 to 8 for RFK Jr, 2 for Stein and 1 for West.
GA - Trump leads Biden in a two-way 51 to 43; and, also by 8 points in a five-way (45 to 34 to 8 for RFK Jr, 3 for West and 1 for Stein)
WI - Trump and Biden are tied 47 to 47 in the two-way; and, Trump leads Biden by 3 in the five-way (42 to 39 to 7 for RFK Jr to 2 for Stein to 1 for West)
ALONG with other polling data, Trump is looking good in the battleground states, esp. when RFK Jr and other third-party and independent candidates are included in the mix.
If people could imagine their children under socialism, it would not be a close race.
Wonder if in GA and MI, even more black men are quitting the Democrats and are going to Trump compared to 2020.
Have this feeling that the crooks who stole the election in 2020 just aren't going to risk stealing votes for porridge brains like last time either.
This may be meaningless soon, what with Brandon’s health issues and all.
Fox
For what its worth, the below study found the bias in Fox to be 3 points in the 2020 election, similar to the bias in most other major media polls in that election.
Make no mistake, fraud will erase any Trump lead. The fix is in.
Fox News Poll: Biden and Trump in close race in Michigan
This report calls for a refresher on Rat-Speak.
In Rat-Speak poll results are reported as follows:
If the rodent candidate is 4 points behind it is called a “dead heat’”
If the rodent is 3 points behind he/she/it is winning and pulling away.
If the rodent is 1 or 2 points behind the rodent is clearly ahead.
If the American candidate is 1 to 4 points behind he/she has no chance.
If the American has 2 to 5 point lead he/she is still in a “flat footed tie”
Faux news polls are consistently wrong by standards of math and decency so the only conclusion is that they purposely lie.
Don’t forget about manchin/mittens romney ticket.
Polls are pure BS run by the media and Democrats. Trump should be double digits ahead in every poll if they were truthful polls. Any sane person, which eliminates many in America, would never vote Biden especially after the last 3 years and didn’t in 2020 but the brain dead idiot got 81m votes... Which is where the problem lies.
We don’t have many polls with No Labels. Those we do indicate it or Manchin (when mentioned by name) have about half the support of RFK Jr, and also hurt Biden more than Trump.
Oh please.
Democrat party apparatchiks have already secured 110% of the dead vote for Biden, 96% of the pet vote, along with 70% of the Detroit vote.
Those “votes” will roll in about 72 hours after election day polls have closed, and Biden will have 9,000,000 votes in Michigan alone.
Regarding the shortcomings in polls, we have alternate sources of information about the current status of campaigns:
1. betting markets - these actually long preceded scientifically-valid opinion polls. The obvious question is: on what are the betting odds based if not scientifically-valid polls?
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/0895330041371277
2. the stock market - in close races, they move after the vote is counted. But, if the outcome is pretty much a sure thing before the vote is counted, they move before the vote is counted. Admittedly, this source of information is difficult to interpret in isolation, as stock markets move all the time for any number of reasons.
As to whether the polls are “pure BS,” they’re better than flipping coins, but nowhere near as good as they’re supposed to be given probability theory.
In 2016, for example, many of us who were hoping for a Trump victory, looked “into” the polls and saw a drift of Gary Johnson voters toward Trump and thought that draft would continue through the days immediately preceding the vote. We also saw that a lot of undecided minority voters expressed values associated with Trump; and, we thought in the privacy of the voting booth, they’d vote their values and not their skin color. (Hey, that’s one of the reasons we like voting on election day and we like the secret ballot.)
I’ve never trusted FOX polls even when I used to watch FOX. They appear to be conducted by the DNC Polling Department.
Biden is totally incompetent, both mentally and physically and this is the best Trump can do? It’s going to be a long election season...
Polls have always been subject to confounding factors, but they used to be more reliable when we still lived in a society with a clear, shared moral code that placed a very high value on truthfulness, in which people mostly trusted the media and government, and in which voting was still considered a high civic obligation, at least among the broad middle ground of the culture.
All of those factors have been severely battered. People used to be excited when they were contacted by a well-known pollster; today, many routinely lie to pollsters. And on top of that, the mass adoption of cellphones and the use of call screening has made it increasingly difficult to reach people. Assembling a statistically representative sample has become remarkably difficult.
The point is, the reliability of polling isn't just a matter of gamemanship and push polling, although these remain factors. The bigger challenge is the highly competitive arms race among polling organizations to develop representative sampling models and statistical adjustments for the known confounding factors. Honest polling isn't irrelevant -- but you had better understand the methodology and the assumptions that are being built into the model. The genius of any election cycle will be the pollster who gets his "secret sauce" closest to the mark.
Sorry to not join you in despair, but I have not yet grown accustomed to losing.
I’m basically an older guy, and continue to be a Frank Sinatra kind of America:
“Every time I find myself flat on my face,
I just pick myself up and get back in the race.”
The Stupid Virus is alive and well in Michigan.
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