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The Black Swan Events That Could Determine This Election
Townhall.com ^ | 1 February A.D. 2024 | Kurt Schlichter

Posted on 02/01/2024 9:21:40 AM PST by lightman

Some of us older folks grew up in a time of normality when chaos was not the rule and weird, life-changing things didn’t happen. The stakes were not that high when we were growing up, except for the whole imminent nuclear war thing, but now we are regularly beset by flocks of black swan events, events so significant and life-changing that they send our society and our politics off in strange new tangents. And they now happen all the time. 9/11, the Wall Street meltdown, Trump’s election, COVID, Ben Shapiro getting a No. 1 rap hit … the black swans are coming fast and furious, and there is no sign of them stopping

One or more can happen – likely will happen – this year, and that could change everything for the 2024 election.

I strongly support Donald Trump in the 2024 election, but let’s face some facts. This is an uphill fight for the President and his quest to become Grover Cleveland II. A huge number of Americans irrationally hate him despite the peace and prosperity of his prior reign. Yeah, the polls look pretty good today, but the Democrats have not opened fire with their countless billions of leftist dollars. People are just starting to pay attention to politics, and some of those polls that showed Trump way ahead are now wavering. Biden could very well win this thing, which is almost unimaginably horrible, but that’s the reality. Yet there’s another reality – the black swans have not yet come to roost. What could take place in the next eleven months could change everything, and none of these scenarios would be so shocking as to be outside the realm of reasonable possibility. In fact, “shocking” is the default setting for this election year. Let’s look at what could happen and how that might change things.

Trump Convicted, Acquitted, or Nothing At All:

The disgraceful lawfare against Donald Trump is only increasing in intensity. The bizarre and unjust eight-figure hit on Trump in a blue city courtroom last week is just the latest in what will be a never-ending series of courtroom misadventures. Pretty soon, that alleged judge in New York City is going to hit him with a nine-figure verdict in the NY attorney general’s utterly bogus civil lawsuit, but the real story is the bogus criminal cases.

Understand that none of them have any legal merit. Zero. Nada. As far as the law goes, they are a joke. But no one’s laughing when the Democrats attempt to use the power of law enforcement to arrest and imprison their opponents. Let’s put aside how dangerous this precedent is for a moment and look at what might happen in these cases. Worst case, one or more of these garbage cases go to trial. The federal cases both look like they are wrapped up in appeals and seem likely to be kicked into 2025 or beyond. But the state court cases may go forward, and Trump will be “convicted.”

Again, these cases are a joke, but they won’t be revealed as a joke until their blue city juries have convicted the man that they hate. Trump may even be imprisoned. What will the voters think? Right now, polls say that the voters would take this nonsense seriously and look badly upon Trump if he’s branded a felon by these kangaroo courts. But is that really so? So far, all the lawfare has done is strengthen Trump’s support. Will independents believe this is justice being done, or will they see that this is an injustice in pursuit of political power perpetrated by his enemies? I don’t think Americans are stupid enough to buy the latter, but there are a lot of stupid Americans. After all, a lot of people voted for Biden.

But there’s another possibility. There’s a possibility that Trump is acquitted or somehow these cases go away due to pre-trial appellate rulings. That’s entirely possible. The whole throwing him off the ballot-thing will go away at SCOTUS; of that, there is little doubt. But the Supreme Court is also considering presidential immunity, and don’t listen to the idiot Twitter lawyers. Trump could (and should) win that. If the immunity issue goes his way Trump has triumphed, as he should.

Terrorist Attack:

The border has been and is going to remain wide open. The Republican Squish Caucus’s border compromise, which was to give Democrats millions of more immigrants in return for destroying the Republican party, seems to be going nowhere, thank goodness. The problem is that Joe Biden will continue to refuse to do his job at the border and enforce our laws. Millions of military-age males are coming into this country, and some of them want to kill us. I wrote about this in my new novel, The Attack, where thousands of military-age males infiltrate the country and trigger a devastating terrorist assault on Americans using very simple means to maximize casualties and demoralize our country. This could absolutely happen. Even some ex-FBI officials, the most incompetent people in the universe, have predicted this possibility and are warning of it. If we get hit by a massive terrorist attack that kills tens of thousands of Americans – and you need to know that this could absolutely happen because I spell it out for you in my novel – it will doom Joe Biden and the Democrats. Put aside the duty to defend Americans from being murdered, which Democrats care nothing about. Setting yourself up for that kind of fall is simply political malpractice. But no one ever accused Joe Biden of being smart.

Economic Meltdown:

We keep hearing about how Bidenomics is wonderful but look around. Does the economy look wonderful to you? Make no mistake – the stock market could tank, and the current OK times for those with a few bucks in their 401(k)s could turn sour overnight. Imagine another 2008, and this time, there are no Republicans to blame it on. A major economic downturn could change everything, especially since voters remember Trump for good times pre-COVID.

Pandemic 2: Lockdown Boogaloo:

The globalist elite got what it wanted out of COVID, and there’s no reason to believe that it won’t turn another relatively minor virus into a huge power and wealth grab like it did the last time. But normal people aren’t playing that anymore. The only people wearing masks now are freaky weirdos. No one wants the vaxx. No one trusts the institutions, and Americans are angry at their lies. But a pandemic panic could happen again because there are benefits for the left. They changed election laws because of a glorified cold, which helped Crusty squeak through. They may try it again. But will it work? Or will people rebel and support Trump even though his record on COVID is far from outstanding?

Civil War:

I called this, too, in my People’s Republic novels. The border situation is coming to a head with a potential confrontation between Governor Abbott of Texas (and 24 other governors) and our alleged President. The fact is that the Constitution requires Joe Biden to both enforce the laws and protect the states from invasion, but he is willfully doing neither. That makes for a constitutional crisis, one completely of Joe Biden’s doing, although the regime media is screaming that it’s all Texas’s fault for not meekly submitting to federal abuse and neglect. I don’t think we’re going to have another Gettysburg, but Joe Biden is a stupid, malignant man, and his administration is full of stupid, malignant people. It is entirely possible that they push this and provoke some sort of conflict. Then it gets scary. I think the great Fred Thompson said it best in “The Hunt For Red October”: “This business will get out of control. It will get out of control, and we’ll be lucky to live through it.”

Some Other War:

Of course, there are bad actors out there in the world, and Joe Biden’s stupidity and weakness are inviting them to take a swing at us. The Iranians just did, killing three of our troops. Whatever the Houthis are are shooting missiles at us and laughing at us. North Korea, China, and Russia are also candidates for sparking some sort of hot war. If I were investing in Taiwan, I would go short right about now. Just wait until Ukraine collapses and the pressure from the globalists to intervene starts. It is entirely possible that we find ourselves sucked into some armed conflict that we are not capable of fighting because our Pentagon is a disaster and our commander-in-chief is a blithering idiot.

America has no taste for another war, at least the Americans the elite expect to go fight it. Those on the left were always sissies who left the fighting to the normals, but the normals are done. They are not enlisting, and they would not take well to a draft – which you know would have plenty of exemptions for the kids of the kind of people who vote for Joe Biden. No, American normals are over fighting idiotic wars for an elite that hates them. If we end up sucked into a conflict, that changes everything, especially since Donald Trump has staked out his position as the peace candidate.

Impeachment, Hunter and Other Scandals:

The House could get its act together and impeach Biden. It will hard even for the Regime Media to cover it all up. The sordid corruption of this senile freak will not be enough to get him booted from office, but it sure could tarnish his already tarnished images, especially if the GOP presents the evidence in a clear, calm, and competent manner. So, this is one black swan he probably does not need to worry much about.

Biden Falls Out:

And then there’s the reality that Joe Biden is about 142 years old, and he could drop dead of natural causes at any time. Or his dementia could get to such a place that he can’t even fake being President any longer, no matter what they pump into his veins. Or he might get tired of it and drop out under pressure. There are rumors that Barack Obama wants him out. And Biden’s wife, who is totally a legitimate doctor, and you should respect her a lot because that means she’s smart, is never going to give up First Ladyhood voluntarily. But the Democrats might not take no for an answer.

The question then becomes, who comes next? Do they somehow slip Michelle Obama in ahead of Kamala Harris, who is remarkable only because she’s literally the sole human being in America dumber than Joe Biden? Or does Gavin Newsom smarm his way into the nomination? The problem for Trump is that his most compelling argument to independents is, “Hey, look at that guy – he’s terrible.” What if he has to go up against someone else? What will the independents do? My guess is that Biden will hold onto the bitter end, but my intuition and $4.95 will get you a cup of Starbucks.

Trump Falls Out:

And here’s the scary reality – Trump is pretty old, too. Ignore the unflattering photos and overblown slips of the tongue. He’s in remarkable health and shows amazing vigor for someone his age, but he is his age. There is a possibility that he could fall out because of health concerns – a stroke, a heart attack, who knows? I don’t think it’ll happen, but it might. And there’s something more sinister. You’ve seen the hatred the elite has against the ex-president. You’ve seen how they’ve called him “a threat to Our Democracy” and a “fascist” and all manner of vile crap. It is not an impossibility that yet another leftist murderer could take aim at President Trump. If that happens, all bets are off. This country will convulse into chaos. So pray for his health, even if you are not supporting him in the election. Because something bad happening to Trump means something bad will happen to the United States.

We don’t know what the future will bring. We don’t know what shocking events will take place between now and November, but there is one thing we can absolutely predict. Something is going to happen. Something big is going to occur that will change everything. Let’s just hope our country can survive it.


TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: biden; blackswan; election; schlichter; trump
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To: MeganC

If Trump falls from a health problem or airplane accident it will be an assassination—the spin will be there but we will know the truth.

One thing not listed was a deliberate Civil War caused by the Deep State, to be crushed and cause loss of public support for MAGA and Trump who will be painted as Jefferson Davis. A sort of Jan 6 on Steroids. Hit Texas hard before they can organize a CSA.

Nor is there listed a false flag WW III, hit Iran and Russia (but Not China) No Nukes but crush their military’s with our planes and rockets, a few small invasions with lots of Allies to send Cannon Fodder—like Ukraine. Then, before nukes fly, a UN brokered Peace by Biden—who will win the Nobel Peace prize and re-election as the hero of the nation.
War to end in November 1st. I say a two month war.


61 posted on 02/01/2024 12:19:06 PM PST by Forward the Light Brigade ( Ride to the sound of the Guns!)
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To: Vermont Lt
Across the entire country?

That is not happening.

I hope you're right.

What happens if 10,000 military aged Chinese men take out thousands of high voltage/high current substation transformers, not made anywhere but the PRC, 6 month to multi year manufacture times?

No power, lights go out, no power, water doesn't get pumped, no power, no gas in the nat gas pipelines, no power, no available gasoline or diesel fuel deliveries, no trucking, no food.

Will the fine folk in Boston, NYC, Chicago, LA, etc. just sit quietly in the dark and starve or freeze?

Or will the country side be the unwilling host to a plague of city locusts?

Takers vs Makers.

Who wins?

Maybe China?

62 posted on 02/01/2024 12:25:37 PM PST by null and void (I identify as a conspiracy theorist. My personal pronouns are told/you/so.)
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To: woodbutcher1963

Thanks I’ll check it out.


63 posted on 02/01/2024 12:35:02 PM PST by jimwatx
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To: null and void

10,000 PLA troops, en masse?

That’s a nice fantasy.

That is not happening.


64 posted on 02/01/2024 12:35:25 PM PST by Vermont Lt (Don’t vote for anyone over 70 years old. Get rid of the geriatric politicians.)
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To: lightman

Bolsheviks Vs America

No in-between in the coming election the last 3 years has prover that.


65 posted on 02/01/2024 1:02:30 PM PST by Vaduz
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To: lightman

Or ALL OF THE ABOVE!


66 posted on 02/01/2024 1:19:05 PM PST by Ann Archy (Abortion....... The HUMAN Sacrifice to the god of Convenience.)
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To: lightman
... but Joe Biden is a stupid, malignant man, and his administration is full of stupid, malignant people.

Let me fix that, because this is the real danger: ... but Joe Biden is a stupid, malignant man, and his administration is full of very smart, malignant people.

67 posted on 02/01/2024 1:40:03 PM PST by SFConservative
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To: null and void

Hot springs don’t really care about the temp at which water boils.


68 posted on 02/01/2024 1:43:08 PM PST by MeganC (Ruzzians aren't people. )
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To: lightman

computer thing (but, emp, killer hack, whatever)?
asteroid?


69 posted on 02/01/2024 1:53:18 PM PST by xoxox
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To: yelostar
The film Black Swan:

Black Swan is a 2010 American psychological horror film directed by Darren Aronofsky from a screenplay by Mark Heyman, John McLaughlin, and Andres Heinz, based on a story by Heinz. The film stars Natalie Portman in the lead role, with Vincent Cassel, Mila Kunis, Barbara Hershey, and Winona Ryder in supporting roles. The plot revolves around a production of Tchaikovsky's Swan Lake by the company of New York City Ballet. The production requires a ballerina to play the innocent and fragile White Swan, for which the committed dancer Nina Sayers (Portman) is a perfect fit, as well as the dark and sensual Black Swan, which are qualities better embodied by the new rival Lily (Kunis). Nina is overwhelmed by a feeling of immense pressure when she finds herself competing for the role, causing her to lose her tenuous grip on reality and descend into madness.


Release dates: September 1, 2010 (Venice); December 3, 2010 (United States)

Running time: 108 minutes

Budget: $13 million Box office: $330 million


The numbers 13 and 33 appear often in scripted events, which many believe indicate ties to elite secret societies, especially Freemasonry.

The Royal Arch of Solomon is the Scottish Rite's 13th degree. It centers on the quest for the Master Mason's secret word, which is inspired by the legend of King Solomon's Temple.

The number thirteen has long been associated with Freemasonry due to its connection with King Solomon’s Temple which was built on Mount Moriah using 13 stones from Ethiopia’s coast. Moreover, there were 13 officers in charge during construction and 13 columns around the Temple’s entrance hall which were said to represent each tribe of Israel.

Additionally, thirteen can be found throughout Masonic literature and artwork including murals depicting King Solomon’s Temple which contain 13 figures such as kings or prophets or wise men . It has also been suggested that this same numerology can be found within Masonic regalia such as aprons or collars featuring thirteen stars or crescents representing hope and faith.


The Ancient and Accepted Scottish Rite of Freemasonry is a Rite within the broader context of Freemasonry. It is the most widely practiced Rite in the world. In some parts of the world, and in the Droit Humain, it is a concordant body and oversees all degrees from the 1st to 33rd degrees, while in other areas, a Supreme Council oversees the 4th to 33rd degrees.


https://thephoenixenigma.com/master-numbers-11-22-33/

The Master Number 33 is the final Master Number and without a doubt the most sacred number held above all others in the world of occulted knowledge.

Whether it’s science-sports-politics-murder, number 33 is used prominently in any ritual or permanent undertakings executed by members of secret esoteric orders.

Without a doubt, the number 33 is the most sacred of numbers so far as the occult is concerned. If you wish to understand what is happening in your world I’d recommend that you learn to recognize how, where, and when this number is being used in order to reverse-engineer the intended purpose of its use.


If there is a black swan event in 2024, it will be done...by the numbers.

70 posted on 02/01/2024 2:03:34 PM PST by yelostar (Spook codes 33 and 13. See them often in headlines and news stories. )
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To: null and void

Here’s an article I found for you:

https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/yvo/news/how-hot-are-yellowstones-boiling-waters-some-are-hotter-others

“The hottest springs in the deepest part of the lake, at 125 m (410 ft) below the water, have a temperature of 174 °C (345 °F).”

Our hot spring on the ranch has ‘superheated water’ which is water that can have a temp of more than 100C but it doesn’t boil until after it reaches the surface.

You can replicate this effect at home by using a very clean pyrex container and then putting in a couple cups of water with a few tablespoons of baking soda. Heat it for as long as you’d typically need to boil water and then heat it twice that time.

Do not touch it. But put in a thermometer like you’d use for frying donuts and check the temp. It can be as much as 350F at sea level.

Then leave it alone until it cools. It can boil suddenly and explosively. This is not an experiment to do with the kids or without heavy gloves and a thick coat on.


71 posted on 02/01/2024 2:04:13 PM PST by MeganC (Ruzzians aren't people. )
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To: yelostar

Thom Yorke (Radiohead) - Black Swan (Language Warning)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-2isJqqAKY


72 posted on 02/01/2024 2:07:07 PM PST by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: lightman
It is not an impossibility that yet another leftist murderer could take aim at President Trump. If that happens, all bets are off. This country will convulse into chaos. So pray for his health, even if you are not supporting him in the election. Because something bad happening to Trump means something bad will happen to the United States.
73 posted on 02/01/2024 2:18:46 PM PST by Brown Deer
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To: toddausauras

God did it once. If He wants, He will do it again.


74 posted on 02/01/2024 2:34:32 PM PST by b4me
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To: lightman

Scorched earth seems to be their plan as we get closer


75 posted on 02/01/2024 2:39:01 PM PST by ronnie raygun
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To: b4me

Can’t argue with you there.


76 posted on 02/01/2024 2:52:47 PM PST by toddausauras (Trump Lake 2024....Go down swinging!)
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To: lightman

One other thing: By the time of the DemocRat convention, it sis obvious that Biden is going to lose, so instead they perform the old switcheroo and nominate Michelle Obama to be the candidate for the DNC.


77 posted on 02/01/2024 3:29:59 PM PST by Blood of Tyrants ( "It is easier to fool people than to convince them they have been fooled."- Mark Twain)
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To: Harpotoo

Neither. Revolutionary War II.


78 posted on 02/01/2024 3:30:37 PM PST by Blood of Tyrants ( "It is easier to fool people than to convince them they have been fooled."- Mark Twain)
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To: Vermont Lt; Vendome
10,000 PLA troops, en masse?

En masse?

Not what I said or meant.

Lone wolf, 3 man teams, cyber saboteurs, etc.

A guy with a bolt cutter and satchel charge with a couple other over watch guys to eliminate any nosy guards.

It doesn't take much to damage or even destroy a transformer.

Or couple bullet holes in the radiator, oil drains out and the transformer overheats. Could be done without even entering the property, as was demonstrated between Gilroy and San Jose. That substation now sports a tall concrete wall on all 4 sides. It's the only substation I've seen that is so protected.

A Chinese made drone from Amazon with half a pound or so of Semtex.

A data spoof cross wiring outputs out of phase.

Balloons with dangling bare wires released up wind of power lines, a pickup truck with a driver, a guy with a real time weather ap to keep the release points upwind, a helium tank, a balloon filler upper guy and a a guy watching to release the balloons between the towers.

Divide the 10,000 (of how many 'got away' border crossers is it now? 600,000?) into lone wolves, 3 man teams, squads of ≈ 10, and you can take out a LOT of irreplaceable transformers at any given pre-arranged time.

79 posted on 02/01/2024 3:34:00 PM PST by null and void (I identify as a conspiracy theorist. My personal pronouns are told/you/so.)
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To: FreedomPoster

Christie0 Brinkley is no better. She has been married four times and consistently donated to the DNC and Rat candidates.


80 posted on 02/01/2024 3:34:33 PM PST by Blood of Tyrants ( "It is easier to fool people than to convince them they have been fooled."- Mark Twain)
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