The Black Swan Events That Could Determine This Election

Some of us older folks grew up in a time of normality when chaos was not the rule and weird, life-changing things didn’t happen. The stakes were not that high when we were growing up, except for the whole imminent nuclear war thing, but now we are regularly beset by flocks of black swan events, events so significant and life-changing that they send our society and our politics off in strange new tangents. And they now happen all the time. 9/11, the Wall Street meltdown, Trump’s election, COVID, Ben Shapiro getting a No. 1 rap hit … the black swans are coming fast and furious, and there is no sign of them stopping

One or more can happen – likely will happen – this year, and that could change everything for the 2024 election.

I strongly support Donald Trump in the 2024 election, but let’s face some facts. This is an uphill fight for the President and his quest to become Grover Cleveland II. A huge number of Americans irrationally hate him despite the peace and prosperity of his prior reign. Yeah, the polls look pretty good today, but the Democrats have not opened fire with their countless billions of leftist dollars. People are just starting to pay attention to politics, and some of those polls that showed Trump way ahead are now wavering. Biden could very well win this thing, which is almost unimaginably horrible, but that’s the reality. Yet there’s another reality – the black swans have not yet come to roost. What could take place in the next eleven months could change everything, and none of these scenarios would be so shocking as to be outside the realm of reasonable possibility. In fact, “shocking” is the default setting for this election year. Let’s look at what could happen and how that might change things.

The disgraceful lawfare against Donald Trump is only increasing in intensity. The bizarre and unjust eight-figure hit on Trump in a blue city courtroom last week is just the latest in what will be a never-ending series of courtroom misadventures. Pretty soon, that alleged judge in New York City is going to hit him with a nine-figure verdict in the NY attorney general’s utterly bogus civil lawsuit, but the real story is the bogus criminal cases.

Understand that none of them have any legal merit. Zero. Nada. As far as the law goes, they are a joke. But no one’s laughing when the Democrats attempt to use the power of law enforcement to arrest and imprison their opponents. Let’s put aside how dangerous this precedent is for a moment and look at what might happen in these cases. Worst case, one or more of these garbage cases go to trial. The federal cases both look like they are wrapped up in appeals and seem likely to be kicked into 2025 or beyond. But the state court cases may go forward, and Trump will be “convicted.”

Again, these cases are a joke, but they won’t be revealed as a joke until their blue city juries have convicted the man that they hate. Trump may even be imprisoned. What will the voters think? Right now, polls say that the voters would take this nonsense seriously and look badly upon Trump if he’s branded a felon by these kangaroo courts. But is that really so? So far, all the lawfare has done is strengthen Trump’s support. Will independents believe this is justice being done, or will they see that this is an injustice in pursuit of political power perpetrated by his enemies? I don’t think Americans are stupid enough to buy the latter, but there are a lot of stupid Americans. After all, a lot of people voted for Biden.

But there’s another possibility. There’s a possibility that Trump is acquitted or somehow these cases go away due to pre-trial appellate rulings. That’s entirely possible. The whole throwing him off the ballot-thing will go away at SCOTUS; of that, there is little doubt. But the Supreme Court is also considering presidential immunity, and don’t listen to the idiot Twitter lawyers. Trump could (and should) win that. If the immunity issue goes his way Trump has triumphed, as he should.

The border has been and is going to remain wide open. The Republican Squish Caucus’s border compromise, which was to give Democrats millions of more immigrants in return for destroying the Republican party, seems to be going nowhere, thank goodness. The problem is that Joe Biden will continue to refuse to do his job at the border and enforce our laws. Millions of military-age males are coming into this country, and some of them want to kill us. I wrote about this in my new novel, The Attack, where thousands of military-age males infiltrate the country and trigger a devastating terrorist assault on Americans using very simple means to maximize casualties and demoralize our country. This could absolutely happen. Even some ex-FBI officials, the most incompetent people in the universe, have predicted this possibility and are warning of it. If we get hit by a massive terrorist attack that kills tens of thousands of Americans – and you need to know that this could absolutely happen because I spell it out for you in my novel – it will doom Joe Biden and the Democrats. Put aside the duty to defend Americans from being murdered, which Democrats care nothing about. Setting yourself up for that kind of fall is simply political malpractice. But no one ever accused Joe Biden of being smart.

We keep hearing about how Bidenomics is wonderful but look around. Does the economy look wonderful to you? Make no mistake – the stock market could tank, and the current OK times for those with a few bucks in their 401(k)s could turn sour overnight. Imagine another 2008, and this time, there are no Republicans to blame it on. A major economic downturn could change everything, especially since voters remember Trump for good times pre-COVID.

The globalist elite got what it wanted out of COVID, and there’s no reason to believe that it won’t turn another relatively minor virus into a huge power and wealth grab like it did the last time. But normal people aren’t playing that anymore. The only people wearing masks now are freaky weirdos. No one wants the vaxx. No one trusts the institutions, and Americans are angry at their lies. But a pandemic panic could happen again because there are benefits for the left. They changed election laws because of a glorified cold, which helped Crusty squeak through. They may try it again. But will it work? Or will people rebel and support Trump even though his record on COVID is far from outstanding?

I called this, too, in my People’s Republic novels. The border situation is coming to a head with a potential confrontation between Governor Abbott of Texas (and 24 other governors) and our alleged President. The fact is that the Constitution requires Joe Biden to both enforce the laws and protect the states from invasion, but he is willfully doing neither. That makes for a constitutional crisis, one completely of Joe Biden’s doing, although the regime media is screaming that it’s all Texas’s fault for not meekly submitting to federal abuse and neglect. I don’t think we’re going to have another Gettysburg, but Joe Biden is a stupid, malignant man, and his administration is full of stupid, malignant people. It is entirely possible that they push this and provoke some sort of conflict. Then it gets scary. I think the great Fred Thompson said it best in “The Hunt For Red October”: “This business will get out of control. It will get out of control, and we’ll be lucky to live through it.”

Of course, there are bad actors out there in the world, and Joe Biden’s stupidity and weakness are inviting them to take a swing at us. The Iranians just did, killing three of our troops. Whatever the Houthis are are shooting missiles at us and laughing at us. North Korea, China, and Russia are also candidates for sparking some sort of hot war. If I were investing in Taiwan, I would go short right about now. Just wait until Ukraine collapses and the pressure from the globalists to intervene starts. It is entirely possible that we find ourselves sucked into some armed conflict that we are not capable of fighting because our Pentagon is a disaster and our commander-in-chief is a blithering idiot.

America has no taste for another war, at least the Americans the elite expect to go fight it. Those on the left were always sissies who left the fighting to the normals, but the normals are done. They are not enlisting, and they would not take well to a draft – which you know would have plenty of exemptions for the kids of the kind of people who vote for Joe Biden. No, American normals are over fighting idiotic wars for an elite that hates them. If we end up sucked into a conflict, that changes everything, especially since Donald Trump has staked out his position as the peace candidate.

The House could get its act together and impeach Biden. It will hard even for the Regime Media to cover it all up. The sordid corruption of this senile freak will not be enough to get him booted from office, but it sure could tarnish his already tarnished images, especially if the GOP presents the evidence in a clear, calm, and competent manner. So, this is one black swan he probably does not need to worry much about.

And then there’s the reality that Joe Biden is about 142 years old, and he could drop dead of natural causes at any time. Or his dementia could get to such a place that he can’t even fake being President any longer, no matter what they pump into his veins. Or he might get tired of it and drop out under pressure. There are rumors that Barack Obama wants him out. And Biden’s wife, who is totally a legitimate doctor, and you should respect her a lot because that means she’s smart, is never going to give up First Ladyhood voluntarily. But the Democrats might not take no for an answer.

The question then becomes, who comes next? Do they somehow slip Michelle Obama in ahead of Kamala Harris, who is remarkable only because she’s literally the sole human being in America dumber than Joe Biden? Or does Gavin Newsom smarm his way into the nomination? The problem for Trump is that his most compelling argument to independents is, “Hey, look at that guy – he’s terrible.” What if he has to go up against someone else? What will the independents do? My guess is that Biden will hold onto the bitter end, but my intuition and $4.95 will get you a cup of Starbucks.

And here’s the scary reality – Trump is pretty old, too. Ignore the unflattering photos and overblown slips of the tongue. He’s in remarkable health and shows amazing vigor for someone his age, but he is his age. There is a possibility that he could fall out because of health concerns – a stroke, a heart attack, who knows? I don’t think it’ll happen, but it might. And there’s something more sinister. You’ve seen the hatred the elite has against the ex-president. You’ve seen how they’ve called him “a threat to Our Democracy” and a “fascist” and all manner of vile crap. It is not an impossibility that yet another leftist murderer could take aim at President Trump. If that happens, all bets are off. This country will convulse into chaos. So pray for his health, even if you are not supporting him in the election. Because something bad happening to Trump means something bad will happen to the United States.

We don’t know what the future will bring. We don’t know what shocking events will take place between now and November, but there is one thing we can absolutely predict. Something is going to happen. Something big is going to occur that will change everything. Let’s just hope our country can survive it.

Wikipedia

The earliest known reference to the term black swan occurs in the Roman poet Juvenal’s poem Satire VI, in which he describes potential qualities of a woman worthy of marriage.

His line “rara avis in terris, nigroque simillima cygno” translates to “a rare bird in the world, very similar to the black swan.”

…that a perfect wife is a "rare bird" (rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cycno 6.165); a rare bird in the earth, a modified form of which is the modern phrase "a black swan," since black swans are rarer than white.

The person who coined the modern term, Black Swan:

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (/ˈtɑːləb/; alternatively Nessim or Nissim; born 12 September 1960) is a Lebanese-American essayist, mathematical statistician, former option trader, risk analyst, and aphorist whose work concerns problems of randomness, probability, and uncertainty.

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who is a former options trader. The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. Taleb calls this the Black Swan theory.

The book has been described by The Sunday Times as one of the twelve most influential books since World War II.

Everyone keeps bringing up Michelle. She made it perfectly clear she doesn’t want to be in politics.

Forcing a person who doesn't want the job to rule over people who don't want that person anywhere near the levers of power and being able to lord that fact over everyone involved is an extra special bonus to the sociopaths behind the throne.

It's not enough for Big Mike to suffer, and for everyone else in the US (and the rest of the world) to suffer, they want us to know their cabal is the reason we are suffering, and there isn't ~~Adam~~ Jack Schiff we can do about it!

I seem to be getting a lot of disagreement on this. I think the point is too fine.

By “cheat”, I mean the now-famous “F-curves”: in-your-face cheating. The kind of cheating they only have to do to overcome Trump.

You don’t think Obama actually beat Romney, do you?

I suppose I also don’t even understand your disagreement. Do you think that if Trump is forced out, the Democrats will WANT to drag Biden’s sorry ass across the finish line? They could certainly “win” easier with another candidate.

Those of us here in the Northeast understand Democratic cheating—they are blatant about it and have been for decades—and as you say they could not care less who the Republican candidate is—the Democrats view them as road kill.

The rest of the country is just beginning to catch on....

No, I think Trump’s departure would bring in Haley as POTUS with Sununu as VP. Which(according to Tucker) is the plot of the Deep State.

They are both Deep State RINOS. So, whats the difference other than they may secure the border better than the Biden Admin.

We would probably end up in full blown war again in the middle east. Which would probably be great for Raytheon and General Dynamics and people who own oil wells. Probably not so good for the rest of us.

Swift and boyfriend throw their support to Trump which triggers a civil war that is abandoned when an armada of AI controlled space androids attacks Earth and the political antagonists must join forces with synapsid dog men related to Permian period Gorgonopsians who emerge from caverns in Kentucky and New Mexico to save the planet.

Somehow, my post seems to be being read as kindly to the Democrats. I think that the quoted word, “normal”, must be too subtle. There’s cheating like Obama used to beat Romney, or even Hillary used to “win the popular vote”. This is what I mean by “normal”, in scare-quotes.

Then, there’s in-your-face, “F-curve”, go-to-bed-winning-wake-up-lost cheating.

The Dems have choices of how they want this to go down. They can try 2020 again, but I think they are furiously calculating the odds of Civil War. 2024 would have to be even more blatant than 2020 against Trump because even lunatics are starting to taste the sh-t-sandwich.

They won’t need “F-curves” to beat Birdbrain, especially not with someone other than Biden.

I was reading the third book in Ian Toll’s War in the Pacific Trilogy the other day. There was a segment on the decision to invade Formosa or the Philippines.

Here is a quote:

“On August 18, 1944, Nimitz estimated that the operation (Invasion of Taiwan) would require 505,000 army troops, 154,000 marines, and 61,000 navy shore personnel.”

So, assuming that modern warfare doesn’t require the same number of troops and the Taiwanese will not “fight to the last man” as the Japanese would…let’s cut those numbers in half.

How is China going to move 325,000 troops across the Straits of Taiwan? It took the US three years of almost unstopped work to get the transports and landing craft to do that. Plus two years of hard earned practice. And no country has accomplished that since the Korean War—where we still had the men and equipment to do it.

No..China is not invading Taiwan any time soon.

You could be right. I believe that GW Bush was a better fall-guy for the Uniparty to use to be the figurehead behind DHS, The Patriot Act and Iraq.

But I think it would be a step backwards for the Democrats, who clearly run Uniparty, unless they have something unpalatable to implement.

They’re getting a lot out of Mr. Potato Head. He’s not so reliable, though, and whoever is behind the scenes must be chafing to be out front.

Here is the FR thread from last night

https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4214170/posts?q=1&;page=1

The O’Keefe video is on X.
I watched it on Benny Johnson’s YouTube channel last night.

It is pretty entertaining. O’Keefe pretends to be a gay guy again out on a first date with the guy from the White House.

You don’t think Obama actually beat Romney, do you?

When he beat McLame in 2008 the Minority voter turn out in my area (Western VA.) was huge. In the 2012 it wasn't quite as big, and I am certain there was cheating/fraud. But let's be honest Mittens was a poor candidate. The only reason I voted for him was he wasn't Bammy.

I suppose I also don’t even understand your disagreement. Do you think that if Trump is forced out, the Democrats will WANT to drag Biden’s sorry ass across the finish line?I think it depends on who the alternative is. Harris is a nonstarter. Newsom is a possibility, but there is a chance they would run someone like Hochul, Whitmer, or Kotek. Kotek ticks off three boxes for them. The right age, Woman, and openly gay.

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