Posted on 01/02/2024 8:05:20 AM PST by george76
Hundreds of loans on office buildings are about to come due at a very bad time..
Loans were taken out in time of low interest rates and are now hard to refinance..
Too many of the loans defaulting could trigger banking crisis and hurt economy
...
About $117 billion worth is expected to be due this year and needs to be repaid or refinanced,
...
A big chunk of it is at risk of defaulting and costing banks and developers huge sums, sending some into insolvency.
Owners of office space around the country took out their loans when interest rates were half what they are now, and may not be able to refinance them at higher ones.
...
One example is the Seagram building on Park Avenue in Manhattan, which was mortgaged at $760 million in 2012. The loan assumed the building would bring in $74 million in revenue a year, but the best it ever did was $69 million in 2018 - and only $27 million in 2022.
...
Commercial mortgages, unlike home loans, are almost always paid interest-only, leaving the original price to be paid at the end, or refinanced to start the process again.
...
Economists last month found 40 per cent of office loans on bank balance sheets were underwater - owing more than the property is worth.
Smaller regional banks who loaned the money to buy them could themselves be at risk if the loans default as they are not big enough to handle the losses.
Moody's Analytics estimates 224 of the 605 loans that will expire soon will be tough to repay or refinance because their owners have too much debt or the buildings aren't making them enough money.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailymail.co.uk ...
Instead of reverting to antiquated 1960’s solutions like everyone must be in the office to keep each other company, let people work from home (as long as they are productive) and have the government start dumping the massive amount of real estate it owns or leases.
Will China start buying up these buildings at fire sale prices?
Yes. Not so much for the position and responsibility, but rather for the side benefits (cash, lots of cash) through, umm, side channels, shall we say. I want to get set up for a very comfortable retirement.
Few people work productively without supervision. Plus the need for teamwork, training, and just plain old brainstorming sessions require being physically present with one another.
When offices closed in 2020 I predicted it would take 3 to 5 years to trickle down into this mess.
Banks are going to fail. Let’s just hope they don’t bundle the bad paper into securities like with home mortgages in 2008.
The office building owners should get them rezoned and turn them into apartments or hotels.
Office leases are 5-10 years, so this time bomb had a lag.
Then those taken out 5 to 6 years ago are due.
Yep, it’s going to keep rolling down hill for years.
Ye, each year for the next several years as leases come due corporations will either not renew or they will downsize space considerably.
I thought that only worked if you were a Leftist college student with a useless degree?
My city went from 25K to 80K in population in the last 25 years and lots and lots of office space went up.
There are millions of unused square footage now. I couldn’t imagine how much in big cities.
People are still coming. They should convert them to apartments.
I disagree. It is not 1960, technology allows people to easily communicate, team and monitor/share work.
One thing I noticed about many teleworkers I am involved with is that a lot of them will check emails and work on off hours and they are easy to get a hold of in a pinch because they have their laptops at home. In the old days, forget about getting anything from anybody outside of work hours. Even if they wanted to, very few took their laptops home with them. During COVID our metrics actually improved and I was very grateful to not have to waste numerous hours per week in useless in person meetings and training sessions.
I had several people in my office with commutes over an hour and they have been very grateful for not having to eat up 10+ hours of their lives per week driving to and from work. The employees love the extra time away from the office and from a practical standpoint, each of them essentially got a raise in the form of not having to spend money commuting. For some that is a significant amount of money.
Government doesn’t bail out insured accounts, the FDIC does.
So much for the soft landing in the market.
Clean up on Wall street.
Chuckle
Huh?
It should be cheaper for the companies if they work from home.
Less HVAC costs, janitorial, lights and power.
They canNOT blame this on folks working from home!
Housing for our migrants.
Condos for our ‘visitors’.
And we’ve been laughing at Chian for overbuilding so much real estate.
Second homes for our new found workers.
Nope - taxpayers are the source of this bailing out stuff.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.