Posted on 11/20/2023 9:38:47 PM PST by Cronos
In a historic turn, China’s rise as an economic superpower is reversing. The biggest global story of the past half century may be over.
... Its share of the global economy rose nearly tenfold from below 2 per cent in 1990 to 18.4 per cent in 2021. No nation had ever risen so far, so fast.
Then the reversal began. In 2022, China’s share of the world economy shrank a bit. This year it will shrink more significantly, to 17 per cent. That two-year drop of 1.4 per cent is the largest since the 1960s.
These numbers are in “nominal” dollar terms — unadjusted for inflation — the measure that most accurately captures a nation’s relative economic strength. China aims to reclaim the imperial status it held from the 16th to early 19th centuries, when its share of world economic output peaked at one-third, but that goal may be slipping out of reach.
...the world economy is expected to grow by $8tn in 2022 and 2023 to $105tn. China will account for none of that gain, the US will account for 45 per cent, and other emerging nations for 50 per cent. Half the gain for emerging nations will come from just five of these countries: India, Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil and Poland.
China’s real long-term potential growth rate — the sum of new workers entering the labour force and output per worker — is now more like 2.5 per cent.
(Excerpt) Read more at ft.com ...
From what I see, China didn’t build a foundation for anything. It simply stole from the world without developing itself. Shallow ground, if it were.
>> All [Chronos’s] Ukraine war posts have shown us one thing: you’re really bad at predicting the future.
ROFL! Amen.
I haven’t at any point attempted at predicting the future in my posts. You must be mistaking me with you and your fellow Putin fans who kept and keep insisting since March 2022 that Russia will soon conquer Lwow/ Lviv
I disagree, they did build economic ecosystems in car manufacturing, electronics and now mobile financial services.
But the communist party hamstrung creativity and innovation as those threaten the party’s grip on power. Chinese people can be brilliant, but they innovate mostly in the USA.
Ditto for Russians.
Catching up with the USA means allowing your people the freedom to think, innovate, fail and get up.
Ah, nervous tick. Didn’t you keep insisting that Russia would get Odessa, “soon”?
Filthiest country in the world regarding climate clean manufacturing and all our shelves are loaded with their products yet the Dems scream they want to protect the environment.
>> Ah, nervous tick. Didn’t you keep insisting that Russia would get Odessa, “soon”?
Well, no, I don’t believe I did. Can you furnish evidence to back up your claim? Or is that just more of your Zeeper slander?
The stifling of creativity in China predates the communist party. The keju, or imperial exam system, started during the Sui dynasty (581-681). Choosing bureaucrats through merit rather than by circumstance of birth was a good idea at first. But it has resulted in an education system where rote memorization and “studying for the test” plays the dominant role.
Sui Dynasty (581-618)
“...an education system where rote memorization and “studying for the test” plays the dominant role. “
No ideal, but beats an education system of wokeness and total ignorance.
In terms of relative industrial capacity, this analysis is a joke.
After Pearl Harbor, it was thought that Japan had no real chance to defeat the USA in a long war due to the disparity in industrial capacity.
As an example of the difference, in 1940, Japanese steel production per year was 9 million tons. US steel production was 80 million.
Fast forward to 2022. China produces over one billion tons of steel per year. The USA less than 100 million.
The USA is further behind industrially than the Japs when they bombed Pearl Harbor !
That’s right.
Economy based on providing slave labor to foreign corporations.
Stuff like this is generally meaningless.
Governments can spend their way to GDP. Talking about “global economy” means nothing when the measurement if currency, created by a central bank on a whim.
China is doing just fine.
Would you trust your life to Chinese steal?
If the choice is Chinese steel or nothing - I’d take the chinese steel.
In the event of war the USA will in a lot of cases have nothing because they don’t have the steel production capacity.
China has a well deserved reputation for cheap chink crap. But they can also make quality stuff when they want to.
They are at the point where Japan was, back in the day. Until ther early 60’s there was still the reputaion of cheap jap crap, but they quickly moved past that. And that is where China is right now.
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