Here's How Biden Is Faring in Every Swing State Right Now Based on Various Polls

Townhall ^ | 11/13/2023 | Guy Benson

[SeekAndFind]

A week ago, the political commentariat was oohing and ahhing about just-released New York Times polling showing President Joe Biden trailing former President Donald Trump in five out of six battleground states surveyed.  Among the most significant findings within the data was Trump's commanding lead (59-37/+22) on voters' top issue: The state of the US economy.  We also told you about a then-fresh CBS News poll that showed many more voters believe their personal finances would be better off if Trump returned to power, versus if Biden remained in the Oval Office.  The split wasn't close (45-18/+27).  In the days since those numbers were published, more polling has confirmed what the Times found.  Consider these results from Emerson:

🇺🇲 2024 GE: @EmersonPolling (A-)

GEORGIA
Trump 49% (+8)
Biden 41%
.
PENNSYLVANIA
Trump 49% (+4)
Biden 45%
.
NEVADA
Trump 47% (+3)
Biden 44%
.
ARIZONA
Trump 46% (+2)
Biden 44%
.
WISCONSIN
Trump 45% (=)
Biden 45%
.
MICHIGAN
Biden 45% (+2)
Trump 43%

4,303 LV | 10/30-11/4 | MoE: ±3%


pic.twitter.com/MbEUe5vua6— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 9, 2023

Trump leads in four of the six states tested (AZ, GA, NV, PA) is tied in Wisconsin, and narrowly trails in Michigan in this data set.  Here's another one, from Bloomberg:

#NEW @MorningConsult / Bloomberg News Polls:

PENNSYLVANIA
Trump 47% (+3)
Biden 44%
.
NORTH CAROLINA
Trump 48% (+9)
Biden 39%
.
ARIZONA
Trump 46% (+4)
Biden 42%
.
GEORGIA
Trump 48% (+7)
Biden 41%
.
NEVADA
Trump 46% (+3)
Biden 43%
.
WISCONSIN
Trump 47% (+1)
Biden 46%
.
MICHIGAN
Trump 43% Biden 43%

4,922 RV, 10/30-11/7


pic.twitter.com/gGSJDWoZUX— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 9, 2023

Here we have Trump leading across the board, with a tie in Michigan.  Interestingly, this survey also tested the impact of third party options in these match-ups, which generally nets out to be negligible.  What's not negligible is this confirmation of the CBS outcomes referenced above.  Across the seven battlegrounds Bloomberg polled, Trump is running away with the 'better off' economic questions -- and the economy is far and away the most important issue to these voters (41 percent versus everything else in single digits):

🇺🇲 2024 GE: Bloomberg/MC - Swing States poll: Would you say the Economy is/was...?

53% - Better off under Trump
33% - Better off under Biden
.
Your personal financial situation...

52% - Better off under Trump
30% - Better off under Biden
.
What is single most important issue to you when deciding who to vote for in 2024 Presidential Election?

1. The Economy: 41%

2. Immigration: 9%

3. Democracy: 8%

4. SSA and Medicare: 7%

5. Healthcare: 6%

6. Abortion: 5%

7. Climate change: 4%

8. Guns: 4%

9. Crime 3%

10. Israel/Hamas war 3%



https://t.co/kwpgTWVZzX pic.twitter.com/FBZpDfolaa— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022)


November 10, 2023

Take all of these polls together, and it seems quite plausible that if a presidential election rematch between Biden and Trump were to take place in the very near future, Trump would stand a strong chance of winning. Two 'buts,' in response. First, a year is a long time, and all of the caveats I mentioned here very much apply.  Indeed, when the hypothetical of a Trump conviction was introduced, Trump's very early leads look shakier.  Relatedly, in a recent Marquette poll of Wisconsin (considered the Badger State's premiere pollster), Trump was very competitive with Biden, but wasn't the strongest match-up for Republicans against the incumbent -- a phenomenon that has showed up in other recent data, too:

Brand new Marquette poll—seen as the gold standard in Wisconsin—tests hypothetical 2024 presidential matchups in the key battleground state. One year out:

🔵Trump trails Biden by two points
🔴DeSantis leads Biden by two points
🔴Haley leads Biden by nine points!


pic.twitter.com/uOcY1sk59N— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 8, 2023

For what it's worth, the public polling average overestimated Biden's margin in Wisconsin by six points in 2020.  Marquette's final survey had Trump losing by five points in the state; he lost by less than one.  Second, at least on some level, it seems difficult to square all of the horrible numbers for Biden in these polls with the decisions voters made last week, handing Republicans and conservatives a slew of disappointments and underwhelming results.  Apples and oranges, argues the Times' data man, Nate Cohn:

In one sense, the results were no surprise. The polls showed Democrats and their causes ahead in these races, and the party has excelled in low-turnout special elections over the last year. But the results were especially elating for Democrats against the backdrop of the latest polls, including the newest New York Times/Siena College poll, which seemed to spell doom for the Democrats. There was no doom Tuesday night. To many, the contradiction between Democrats’ success at the ballot box and their struggles in surveys seems to suggest the polling can’t be right. It’s an understandable response — but it’s probably wrong. There’s no contradiction between the polling and Tuesday’s election results. There’s not even a contradiction between the polling and the last year of special elections.

Put simply: Tuesday’s results don’t change the picture for President Biden heading into 2024. The polls and the election results are surprisingly easy to reconcile. The surveys show millions of voters who dislike Mr. Biden but remain receptive to other Democrats and support liberal causes. The polls also show Democrats with particular strength among the most highly engaged voters, who dominate low-turnout elections like Tuesday’s, while Mr. Trump shows his greatest strength among the less engaged voters who turn out only in presidential races. As a result, the same data showing Mr. Biden in jeopardy is entirely consistent with Democratic strength Tuesday. The fact that many of the voters he will need are now supporting other Democrats and liberal causes, as they did Tuesday, may ultimately be exactly what allows Mr. Biden to win in the end. But it doesn’t mean his political position is secure. If anything, his weakness among even these voters reveals the extent of his liabilities.

What seems increasingly clear is that by sticking with their frontrunners, each major political party would be making an enormous, high-stakes gamble heading into next year.  And on that front, I'll leave you with this emerging factor and debate:

On the Manchin/third party question: pic.twitter.com/z35hllv6ma— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 12, 2023

[OHPatriot]

My bet is that Biden will win EVERY STATE at 3am.

Polls are worthless. All that is assured is Democrat Voter Fraud!!

FIX THAT, and maybe we have a chance.

[Owen]

Things to notice, or not:

1) Where is the partisan mixture, including Independents, of the sample? Poll results depend heavily on that information.

2) Notice in the list of issues how the pollster’s leanings are revealed. “Democracy” is listed as an issue. “Drain the Swamp” or “Deep State” is not.

3) Abortion was way down the list of importance.

[DIRTYSECRET]

First of all it’s too early.
Second, the democrats don’t need a whole year to fix things.

Third, they might not need to cheat. Think about it. They’re better and smarter than our people-think McDaniel. They got money and the MSM.

Last it’s their voters. They swallow the soccer moms stuff and walk the tightrope better. Think Gaza-they won’t pay a price.

[TalBlack]

Trump was ahead in the only poll that matters in 2020 and they stopped the count and stole it. Who gives the slightest shit about these stupid polls.

[thinden]

Trump was ahead in the only poll that matters in 2020 and they stopped the count and stole it. Who gives the slightest shit about these stupid polls.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

imo, any poll that shows brandon over 40% is cookin the books to make the dem vote fraud easier to swallow next november.

[Mr. Jeeves]

There is zero chance that 42% of the living, breathing voters in Arizona support Joe Biden. Zero chance.

However, his odds of getting 51% of the ballots counted next year remain pretty good.

[nitzy]

I see that these polls take into account likely vs registered voters. Is there a poll that factors in manufactured voters? Because they will likely be the deciding factor again.

[janetjanet998]

What’s up with NV this cycle?

Trump up 3-6%

Did that many conservatives flee CA?

[PIF]

Watch who JB chooses as VP. In less than a month after he wins, he will step down - leaving the Dems real Presidential candidate standing.

[38special]

Trump won’t be allowed to win by the powers that be. Just like last time.

[dragonblustar]

Yep.

[antidemoncrat]

I’ll bet the Demoncrats are already working on plans to steal those swing states Electoral College votes like they stole the ones in the swing states in 2020.

[1Old Pro]

The real “action” is on WHO the party will select to replace Biden.

[bigbob]

Any poll that fails to show the impact of RFK Jr. as an independent is a waste of time.

[MrBambaLaMamba]

Biden still wins with 162 million votes.

[woweeitsme]

I think you mean 162 BILLION votes! :)

[napscoordinator]

All they have to say is abortion and immediately pennsyvania, Georgia and Arizona disappear.

[LS]

This had to really hurt Guy the Gay Benson to write.

[chris haney]

A troll who is so optimistic