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Battle for Avdiivka could decide the Ukraine war
asiatimes.com ^ | October 19, 2023 | by Stephen Bryen

Posted on 10/22/2023 2:50:51 PM PDT by elpadre

While the world is focused on Israel and the Gaza war, the war in Ukraine grinds on.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin gave a brief press conference during his China trip and from that we can conclude the following: firstly that the Russians are concerned about the use of the US ATACMS missile against Russian forces, and secondly that the Russians are worried about the arrival, probably around January, although no one is certain, of F-16 fighter aircraft.

The Russians understand that the F-16s will challenge Russian air superiority, at least to a degree, and complicate their operations. Meanwhile, on the ground, the Russians are making some headway against Avdiivka but the manpower and hardware cost is very high.

In effect, the war has changed dimensionally. The Russians proved that its army could repel a Ukrainian offensive focused in the Zaphorize direction and inflict heavy casualties on Ukraine.

However, just now that the Russians have started going on the offensive attacking strategic cities like Avdiivka, it is not so easy.

The same points about the land and air battle in Ukraine made by Putin were also made by his Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu in a conference with Russian army, air force and navy top brass.

The MGM-140 is a tactical ballistic missile with a range of around 300 kilometers. The missiles were secretly shipped to Ukraine and first used against a large depot and airfield in Berdyansk.

(Excerpt) Read more at asiatimes.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: avdiivka; berdyansk; gaza; hamas; israel; sergeyshoigu; stephenbryen; ukraine
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1 posted on 10/22/2023 2:50:51 PM PDT by elpadre
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To: elpadre

Yet another battle that will decide the war...


2 posted on 10/22/2023 2:55:34 PM PDT by glorgau
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To: glorgau

Eventually a battle will. But probably not that one.


3 posted on 10/22/2023 2:57:40 PM PDT by Pikachu_Dad
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To: elpadre

Russians will run out of armor before Ukraine runs out of Avdiivka.


4 posted on 10/22/2023 3:10:11 PM PDT by Farmerbob
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To: elpadre

Dog fights

In the liberal hood - ghetto

Crips vs bloods

Kunte kinta chicken george

Dnc drive byes

Blm - hamas vs Israel too


5 posted on 10/22/2023 3:15:54 PM PDT by Firehath (Quackery - An irrelevant simplification / undetected Complex problem - attacking symptoms)
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To: elpadre

There is reporting already that Russian jets do not come close to the border with Ukraine for fear of being attacked by a variety of missiles. How will the arrival of American jets change that. Can we assume that they are to be used to attack not only Russians in Ukraine, but Russians in Russia?


6 posted on 10/22/2023 3:18:09 PM PDT by Bookshelf
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To: Farmerbob
Russians will run out of armor before Ukraine runs out of Avdiivka.

Lol !!!! Good one !

7 posted on 10/22/2023 3:19:07 PM PDT by 11th_VA (<><)
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To: elpadre

PUTIN LEFT RUSSIA?

I thought there was a global warrant out for him.


8 posted on 10/22/2023 3:25:49 PM PDT by ridesthemiles
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To: elpadre
Decide? No, if Russia takes Avdiivka, the war will be over.

Ukraine has been on an offensive for more than four months that has accomplished nothing other than feeding its troops into the Russian meat grinder.

This proxy war has been the biggest failure since Vietnam.

It's past time to spare the Ukrainians any more losses.

9 posted on 10/22/2023 3:29:22 PM PDT by Kazan
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To: Bookshelf
There is reporting already that Russian jets do not come close to the border with Ukraine for fear of being attacked by a variety of missiles. How will the arrival of American jets change that. Can we assume that they are to be used to attack not only Russians in Ukraine, but Russians in Russia?

It depends on which version of the F-16 radar they are getting. If it's the original radar then the F-16's aren't going to matter. No one flies over enemy territory so there aren't going to be any dog fights. If they get the upgraded radar it will matter a lot. Right now the biggest threat the Ukrainians face from Russian aircraft is the medium range missile fired from Russian helicopters. The Ukrainians can't see them coming so they can't counter them. The F-16 radar would eliminate at least half of that problem.

I'm pretty sure the Ukrainians are getting the F-16A variants. Those originally came with the shorter range radar. Most of the countries that bought that variant upgraded the radars when the new version became available. I don't know if Denmark and the Netherlands upgraded theirs though.

The other change that the F-16's will bring is the ability to select targets and program missiles in the air. Right now most western missiles fired from Soviet aircraft have to be programed on the ground before being loaded on the aircraft.

10 posted on 10/22/2023 3:36:45 PM PDT by SeeSharp
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To: elpadre

No. THe Ukraine has lost but is in denial, still shoving under equipped conscripts into line of fire positions. The Ukrainian leadership said months ago he knew he could not get what he needed to field a winning offensive. But they put their men into the RUssian meat grinder anyway. Look at a map - Russia will get Odessa when the fighting stops because the Ukraine has no more Ukrainian blood to waste.


11 posted on 10/22/2023 4:14:39 PM PDT by ransomnote (IN GOD WE TRUST)
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To: elpadre

October 22, 2023 - day 59 of no F-16 deliveries


12 posted on 10/22/2023 4:15:24 PM PDT by kiryandil (China Joe and Paycheck Hunter - the Chink in America's defenses)
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To: elpadre

It would cause 20,000 men to redeploy or become MINSK-MEAT (What happens you negotiate in bad faith). Ukraine would also have to redeploy from all Russian claimed lands, if those 20,000k are lost. Any redeployment from the NATO built bunker system would leave repositioned troops in far from ideal positions. The loss would also lead to the capture of Ukraine’s second largest city, makingg it the next frontline in a quickly unteantable position.

The Republicans nuked Speaker McCarthy for trying to fund Biden’s Ukraine money till.

I believe Biden used Hamas to try to destroy Netanyahu while forcing funding for Israel to be tied to his lost Ukraine funding. I think Jim Jordan has that evidence as does Israel.


13 posted on 10/22/2023 4:16:48 PM PDT by Jumper
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To: elpadre

The test: Can Ukraine protect its flanks?


14 posted on 10/22/2023 4:18:44 PM PDT by linMcHlp
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To: Kazan

“if Russia takes Avdiivka, the war will be over.”

Without Russia occupying all of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia or Kherson? None of them fully?


15 posted on 10/22/2023 4:20:35 PM PDT by BeauBo
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To: glorgau

The F16s, well its’ the machines for UKR. Not going to go dominate like USAF, IDF AF, and maybe the brits in whatever they fly now. It’s the training (and good hardware) that they can’t grow organically.


16 posted on 10/22/2023 5:25:20 PM PDT by epluribus_2
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Comment #17 Removed by Moderator

To: Kazan
if Russia takes Avdiivka, the war will be over.

If Russia continues losing troops and equipment at the current rate around Avdiivka, then when and if they manage to capture it their army will be in shambles.

Avdiivka is not important to Ukraine except as another place to kill Russians.

18 posted on 10/22/2023 5:53:30 PM PDT by freeandfreezing
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To: ransomnote
under equipped conscripts

Are those the guys flying FPV drones into Russian dugouts and obliterating Russian armor with missiles and artillery?

Russian troops taking a nap after some of the "under equipped conscripts" rained artillery on them.

And then those "under equipped conscripts" in Avdiivka destroyed a whole column of Russian armor.

19 posted on 10/22/2023 6:02:04 PM PDT by freeandfreezing
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To: Jumper

Mitch McConnell says

It’s all related

Pc niks reincarnating global communism

Taking down free Russia - Israel too


20 posted on 10/22/2023 6:05:30 PM PDT by Firehath (Quackery - An irrelevant simplification / undetected Complex problem - attacking symptoms)
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