[chiller]

..(1) He will not press them to vote against the desires of their district."

iirc, there are 18 such R reps in districts that voted Biden....enough to stop Jordan.

Voting for Jordan as Speaker is not remotely equivalent to a presidential vote so fears should be easily assuaged by Jordan to those 18, and by those 18 to their constituents...

...but then again we know weak-spined RINOs

[Rockingham]

Every Congressional district has to be analyzed as a political entity in itself. In districts where Biden won the presidential vote in 2020 and the GOP won the House seat in 2022, different coalitions and issues emerged in each election year. Broadly, if the 18 such GOP House members feel stronger with Trump on the ballot against Biden in 2024, then they will be inclined to go with Jordan.

By now, through polling and other measures, most of the 18 have a good sense of how their reelection campaign looks. Since Biden has done a terrible job, my guess is that most of the 18 are fairly secure with Trump on the ballot, especially as incumbents, if they have a large campaign war chest, and no serious primary challenger.

Jordan as GOP Speaker seems certain to be politically and organizationally effective in pushing the GOP agenda, genuinely popular with the GOP base, and attentive to GOP member needs. That is a big plus for him. Neither McCarthy as Speaker nor Scalise nor anyone else as a possible GOP Speaker would offer that combination. So, even for fearful and unreliable RINOs, Jordan is the almost certainly the best choice.