By now, through polling and other measures, most of the 18 have a good sense of how their reelection campaign looks. Since Biden has done a terrible job, my guess is that most of the 18 are fairly secure with Trump on the ballot, especially as incumbents, if they have a large campaign war chest, and no serious primary challenger.
Jordan as GOP Speaker seems certain to be politically and organizationally effective in pushing the GOP agenda, genuinely popular with the GOP base, and attentive to GOP member needs. That is a big plus for him. Neither McCarthy as Speaker nor Scalise nor anyone else as a possible GOP Speaker would offer that combination. So, even for fearful and unreliable RINOs, Jordan is the almost certainly the best choice.
Fox’s Chad Pergram advises there remains some hostility from a few toward Jordan for Scalise and McCarthy treatments, but he does not know how deep. I sense the anger will mellow, perhaps even after the 1st ‘protest’ vote.
A 1st ballot win for Jordan would signal “all in for Jordan” which many are not.
2 ballots, maybe 3 is my guess. Additionally, this is a short term appointment, to be redone in 13 months.