I consider analyst Peter Zeihan to be Deep State. But his reports are YouTube are always interesting and probably contain mostly good info.
Zeihan says that China is facing:
Demographic collapse. Very few young people. It is a very rapidly aging society.
Economic collapse. Most of their economic data is dishonest, but from what can be pieced together, their economic model is a disaster.
Political collapse. Chairman Xi has consolidated all political power into his own hands. He has crushed anyone who seems to have talent or a promising political career. Xi is not young (70) and has no successor. When he goes, the vacuum will be extreme.
If China senses that the collapse is imminent, they would probably start setting up a lot of army-linked militias managed by state owned enterprises hoping to minimize the damage from societal collapse.
Zeihan’s overall conclusion is that China will cease to exist as a political entity within 10 years.
Zeihan also says that an invasion of Taiwan would be unsuccessful, but if Xi senses that everything is falling apart, that China will cease to exist, then Xi might just roll the dice and invade Taiwan as a sort of Gotterdammerung.
It would be awesome.
I have been saying this for 20 years. China has huge societal issues that have been papered over by GDP growth.
He is one you didn’t mention.
The average age of a farmer is China is something like 74. All the children left for jobs in the city. What happens when the old farmers die? China needs some type of land reform and to attract young people back to the farm.
Another one
1/2 the smokers in the world live in China. What happens when all the 35 year old smokers are 65 and have COPD?