With the latest poll in Iowa showing President Trump with a commanding 51/14 lead over Ron DeSantis, the people in control of the DeSantis operation are now lowering the bar to say a second-place finish is good enough to continue.
Posted on 09/09/2023 9:13:24 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
A leading Iowa Evangelical activist believes that the critical state caucuses are "tailor-made" for an upset with a Republican field that is "wide-open," saying that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has run a strong ground game as former President Donald Trump dominates the polls.
As Republican presidential hopefuls focus on wooing conservatives in Iowa, Bob Vander Plaats, the president of the Iowa-based advocacy group The FAMiLY Leader, discussed the state of the race in The Hawkeye State in an interview with The Christian Post.
Vander Plaats takes an active role in the primary campaign by interacting with the candidates and hosting the FAMiLY Leadership Summit, a gathering of grassroots Evangelical activists that took place earlier this summer. Most Republican candidates attended and sat down for one-on-one interviews with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, but former President Donald Trump did not.
Although Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus polls show Trump with a commanding lead, Vander Plaats says he's seen "poll numbers just be wrong time and time again."
When asked which candidate was best positioned to win the Iowa caucuses, Vander Plaats responded, "It would have to be Ron DeSantis." He said DeSantis has received endorsements from 40 state legislators and 130 county chairs. He noted the Florida governor's commitment to do the "full Grassley."
A "full Grassley" is in reference to U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa, who is known for traveling to all 99 of the state's counties to campaign and hear from voters.
"His [political action committee], at least, is saying that they have 10,000 caucusgoers committed already to caucus for him. And so that's a pretty stunning ground game," Vander Plaats added.
According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls sampling the opinions of likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers, based on surveys taken from July 15 to Sept. 9, Trump's support has increased to 44.5%.
DeSantis comes in second at 16.7%, followed by U.S. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina at 9.5%, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at 5.8%, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley at 5.5%, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 3.3%, former Vice President Mike Pence at 3.3% and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum at 2.3%.
The other candidates included in the polling average, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, Texas Pastor Ryan Binkley and former Rep. Will Hurd, R-Texas, fail to crack 1%.
Based on Vander Plaats' assessment on the ground in Iowa, the contest is still "wide-open," and conditions are "tailor-made for the former president … to get beat here."
"I see Iowans by and large appreciative of the former president and the things that he did in his administration but exhausted by the continual look at the past and complaint about the past, and so, therefore, I think they're looking forward to turn the page and move on," he added.
"And I think you have candidates from DeSantis to Ramaswamy to Tim Scott to Nikki Haley to Mike Pence, who are all making a strong vie for that support."
Vander Plaats called DeSantis' ground game "exceptionally strong" and recalled that when DeSantis accompanied him to church last month when in town for the Iowa State Fair, the candidate said he was already approaching the halfway point of a "full Grassley."
Vander Plaats pointed to endorsements DeSantis had picked up from Troy Scheuermann, whom he described as a "key activist in southeast Iowa," and former Iowa Republican Party Chair Cody Hoefert. Vander Plaats predicted that "both of those individuals will … bring strong followings with them to the caucuses."
Vander Plaats also praised DeSantis' "comprehensive strategy to win the caucuses," stressing that "he's not skipping the rural [areas] whatsoever."
In a recent call with reporters, the national Christian conservative grassroots advocacy group Faith & Freedom Coalition stressed that focusing on the rural counties is essential to winning the Iowa caucuses. Vander Plaats agreed with that assessment.
While Vander Plaats offered particular praise for DeSantis, he reiterated his belief that the field is "wide-open" and, therefore, all candidates have the potential to win.
"I think everyone, including the former president, is going after the faith-based vote, the Evangelical vote … because they make up about two-thirds of the … [caucusgoers]," he said. "I think it's too early to tell which candidate they're going to rally around. Right now, I think they're taking an interest in all of them."
According to data compiled by The Des Moines Register, "Since 1980, the winner of the Iowa caucuses has gained the nomination in three of eight contested races, but the presidency just once: George W. Bush in 2000."
Vander Plaats believes that Iowans "do our job well," suggesting that the purpose of the Iowa caucuses — which is the first result of the presidential primary season — is not to select the Republican nominee but to "narrow the field."
"This time, I believe, if you're going to beat the former president, I think you have to beat him in Iowa. And I think whoever beats him in Iowa, that's going to be the competition all the way through the primary cycle," he said.
Vander Plaats declared: "If Trump wins Iowa, I don't see how you stop him."
Vander Plaats believes that Trump's strengths include having "100% name ID." He said Trump's indictments "have acted like a SuperPAC for him, they've helped him raise money, and they've kept him in the news 24/7."
"I think there's a sympathy factor there as well as an appreciation factor there," he continued. "But that said, on the ground, I sense something completely different. And that's why I believe the caucuses are tailor-made to upend the former president in Iowa."
Vander Plaats said other candidates have reached out to him.
"We've had Tim Scott at our home. We've had Vivek Ramaswamy at our home and offices. We've had Tim Scott and Nikki Haley at our offices, Asa Hutchinson at our offices."
He asserted that all of the candidates "have to be strong in Iowa to have a legitimate shot at moving forward," adding, "I think after Iowa, there's going to be a strong call to basically coalesce around an alternative to Trump."
"I think it's why they're so scared of the former president, that I believe they believe he presents our highest hurdle for winning victory in 2024, and I think they see it as a must-win," said Vander Plaats.
"Then on top of that, I think they're looking for a statesman, someone who their children and their grandchildren can point to to say grow up to be like that person."
While noting that electability looms large in the minds of faith-based voters, Vander Plaats listed "religious liberty" and "the sanctity of human life and nuclear family" as additional issues of importance to such voters heading into 2024.
He forecasted that Trump's decision to skip the FAMiLY Leadership Summit and his criticism of popular Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds could impact the caucus results.
"Going after the most popular governor in probably Iowa's history is a huge mistake, in my opinion. Skipping the gathering of the largest Evangelical base … is a mistake. Iowans give a lot of credit for those who show up," he proclaimed. "I think that adds to his hurdles when it comes to the state of Iowa."
In 2016, Trump went after Vander Plaats on social media after he endorsed Texas Sen. Ted Cruz for president. Leading up to the endorsement, Trump courted the support of the influential Evangelical activist.
Blah blah blah
The caucus system is an odd form of choosing a candidate. Over the years it’s produced a lot of strange winners. I just remember in 2020 it took the Democrats two and a half weeks to get their count right.
Even if some surprise upset were to happen in Iowa (which I highly doubt) it won’t change the overall outcome… Yes, the msm and establishment will play it up and claim Trump is in trouble, if anyone else outperforms expectations, but it’s all nonsense.. just propaganda to try to influence.
Trump is going to be the nominee, when the dust settles, receiving well over 60% of the overall primary vote.
Don’t have to like it, but Trump was the nominee as of Jan 7 2021, as long as he chose to run. Anyone telling you anything otherwise is a liar or a fool.
For context here we’re the last few open election caucus results for Iowa and the eventual nominee, Iowa has only selected the eventual nominee in an open Republican year, 2 out of the last 7 tries, and only one time did that nominee actually win the the White House.
2016 Cruz won the Iowa Caucuses and Trump was the eventual nominee
2012 Santorum won Iowa Caucus, Romney was the eventual nominee
2008 mike Huckabee won Iowa Caucus, john McCain was the eventual nominee
2000 George Bush won Iowas Caucuses and was the eventual nominee
1996 Bob Dole, who was the eventual nominee
1988 Bob Dole, George Bush was the eventual nominee
1980 George Bush, Reagan was the eventual nominee.
Picking out a hat you always wanted for you obviously.
Size 3 3/4
Poor Ronnie, still holding on to the horse’s tail as it drags him through the mud. This will go on until the last dime has been taken by fraudulent campaign consultants that have been lying to him.
It’s a Caucus.
What did we learn about Caucuses in 2016? Anyone remember?
Ted Cruz won every one of them.
Caucuses are run by the party. Only party favorites make it
into the Caucus situation, and they vote in strict adherence
to the GOPe desires and dictates.
What is going on here, is that they are trying to make it
seem like Ron has caught fire. No, the GOPe will simply
light a fire under any Republican that doesn’t vote for
him when the Caucus comes around.
This is utter nonsense.
Trump 2024
In 2007, Sen. Chris Dodd actually moved his family to Iowa and enrolled his daughter in school. He campaigned almost full time for months.
For the ‘88 election, Sen. Dick Gephardt moved with family members to Iowa for campaigning there. Sen. Paul Simon also rented an apartment in Des Moines for intensive campaigning.
Nobody makes their campaign in Iowa, but a lot of candidates are weeded out there, more recently, Kamala and Tulsi.
Caucus rules have changed. Now, delegates to the next level are bound by the presidential preference voting results.
“a Republican field that is “wide-open,””
ROTFLOL!
welllll, i suppose if someone actually believes that ridiculous delusion, then they’d probably believe anything ...
With the latest poll in Iowa showing President Trump with a commanding 51/14 lead over Ron DeSantis, the people in control of the DeSantis operation are now lowering the bar to say a second-place finish is good enough to continue.
Team DeSantis has essentially camped out in Iowa for the past several weeks, pulling all their resources from other states as the polling for their candidate has consistently gotten worse.
The goal of reboot 4.0 was to focus heavily on Iowa and to a lesser extent New Hampshire. However, after weeks of campaigning in Iowa, the polling has only gone backward. DeSantis has lost half the support he originally carried as the Florida Governor tours the state.
(Politico) – […] “We believe it’s already a two-person race,” a top DeSantis campaign official granted anonymity to discuss strategy told POLITICO. “But the reality is, on the ballot there are other choices, and our goal is to get this down to a two-person race on the ballot, especially as we head into South Carolina and beyond into March.”
Speaking ahead of DeSantis’ weekend trip to Iowa, the official said “a strong second-place showing gives us an opportunity to go in[to] New Hampshire and show success.”
Expectations-setting is a tried and true element of every campaign, and DeSantis’ team remains bullish about his ability to make up ground. But coming four months before the first votes are cast in Iowa, the sentiments from the DeSantis campaign official reflect the yawning gap that’s emerged between the Florida governor and former President Donald Trump in both national and Iowa polls.
DeSantis’ operation has looked to Iowa as a springboard. Shortly before the first primary debate, the head of his allied super PAC, Never Back Down, privately told donors that they anticipated a win in the state. (read more)
With the increased desperation and the retreat of big donors, the DeSantis operation really needs the Bush network to step up big for the Fox Business Debate scheduled this month at the Reagan Library in California. Dana Perino has moved into position.
The Bushes, Prescotts, multinationals and professional Republicans funded by Sea Island billionaires will now start to overemphasize the “chaos Trump” narrative, in order to wear down the psyche of the base Republican voters. They really need mental fatigue to erode the Trump support, and you can see the efforts taking place in the alignment of narratives shared by the Democrats and the Republicans.
The big problem the GOPe face is that now the larger voting base have caught on to the “illusion of choice” playbook. Ordinary voters can see how the schemes are being constructed, and the support for Donald Trump continues to grow. This was evidenced in the Iowa -vs- Iowa State football game earlier today.
Crowds in the Iowa football sphere were heavily enthusiastic about President Trump, and Ron DeSantis at the same event seemed even smaller than usual. Whoever keeps coming up with these efforts to compare and contrast is really not helping DeSantis at all. The Florida Governor looks small and silly despite being supported and carried around by Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds.
I can't believe I'm waking up to DeSimps, whose candidate is down 40 talking sh#t yet again.
These have to be the most insufferable dorks on the internet.
Just change your voter registration to (D) already. We know how you "Never Trump" losers are gonna vote.— Brenden Dilley (@WarlordDilley) September 10, 2023
No, the more exposure the Meatball gets, the more he loses support.
There were a few boos, but the vast majority of yeahs drowned out the few boos. The RATs booed him I am sure. But it wasn’t because they love Meatball.
Now Meatball? Nobody even noticed him being there.
Try to tell the truth. Roundly booed sounds like the whole place was booing. Sorry, but the videos all over the place do not support what you claim.
Trump is way ahead in Iowa.
Good to hear that! Sounds like the Colleges of Ag, Business, and Engineering were well represented.
Probably all Journalism students.
RDS’s wife sure got ugly in Iowa. LOL
Where was she, was she missing? Is there a number to call?
though that was likely college students.
Not a fan of DeSantos, but I do think he’ll do much better in Iowa than many expect.
Yep. 2024 is shaping up to be a total catastrophe for the GOP and America.
Nope...not students! Middle aged goofs were flipping him off. The kids, from being there and seeing many photos were smiling, cheering and taking pictures.
I was a student at ISU when I cast my first vote...for Reagan’s second term. Same energy! These kids remember how good things were just a few years ago. Can you imagine being 19 and being worried about being drafted because of the Ukraine nuttery?
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