Posted on 08/26/2023 2:03:00 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Depression 10 has formed between the Yucatan Peninsula and the Western Tip of Cuba. Governor DeSantis issued a state of emergency for 33 Florida counties in advance of the system.
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Will be keeping a close eye on Idalia, recalling how Charley in 2004 decided to take an eastward jog in late stages of approach to land. This one is supposed to have only moderate impacts around Tampa Bay but any slight shift east in the track would change that to major impacts.
As the storm is in a formative stage off northwest Cuba now, it needs to be watched very closely to make sure it really is going to head as far north as the cone suggests (even the eastern margin of the cone would be a very bad storm for Tampa Bay region).
Cedar Key FL is probably “ground zero” on current guidance and landfall most likely around daybreak Wednesday.
400 AM CDT Update
-------------------------------
About 85 MI N of The Western Tip of Cuba
About 370 MI SSW of Tampa FL
Max Sustained Winds...75 MPH
Movement...N at 14 MPH
Minimum Pressure...981 MB
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the storm center.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles from the center.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
Per WFTV if the track still stands Orlando gets 39+ mph gusts in the worst part of the storm since computer models are trending more west toward Tallahassee. Possible power outages here with 1-4” of much needed rain after all those days of high 90’s. As a side note, Brian Shields said there is a possibility this storm does a loop once it crosses to the east coast.
NO LOOPS!! Just NO!!
000
WTNT45 KNHC 290859
TCDAT5
Hurricane Idalia Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023
Radar data from western Cuba indicates that Idalia is becoming
better organized. Most of an eyewall has formed, with much more
curvature in the banding features and overall radar pattern.
Satellite imagery also shows the center of Idalia firmly within the
central dense overcast. Thus, the initial wind speed is raised to
65 kt, in accordance with the latest TAFB satellite classification.
The hurricane is accelerating northward this morning, now moving at
about 9 kt. Idalia should move faster to the north or
north-northeast through landfall on Wednesday between mid-level
ridging over Florida and a trough dropping into the western Gulf of
Mexico. There has been a westward shift in the model guidance
overnight, perhaps due to the trough tugging Idalia more
northward before taking a north-northeast turn. It should be
noted that the ECMWF ensemble shows many of its strongest members
on the eastern side of its guidance envelope, which is a
reasonable place to be given the synoptic pattern. The new NHC
forecast is adjusted a little to the west but is now east of the
model consensus on the eastern side of the reliable model guidance.
After Idalia leaves the eastern United States coastline, the track
forecast becomes highly uncertain and little change was made to the
previous forecast.
With an inner core now present, the stage is set for Idalia to
rapidly intensify before landfall. Shear should continue to lower
over the cyclone as an upper-level trough departs the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico and ridging builds closer to the cyclone. These
changes, combined with extremely warm and deep waters the hurricane
will be traversing, all strongly point to rapid intensification.
The new forecast is similar to the previous one, and confidence is
increasing in an extremely dangerous major hurricane making landfall
Wednesday along the west coast or Big Bend region of Florida.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning
is in effect, including Tampa Bay and the Big Bend region of
Florida. Inundation of 8 to 12 feet above ground level is expected
somewhere between Chassahowitzka and Aucilla River. Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast, with the
potential for destructive winds where the core of Idalia moves
onshore. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of
northern Florida near the track of the center of Idalia.
3. Heavy rainfall is expected across portions of western Cuba and
may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides.
Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia beginning today
into Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0900Z 23.1N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 24.9N 84.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 27.8N 84.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 30.6N 82.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/0600Z 32.7N 80.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 31/1800Z 33.8N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 01/0600Z 33.9N 74.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 33.3N 71.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 32.5N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
Good morning to you! Looks like you may not have to stuff your hiding kitties into the pet carriers after all! Last storm I had to stuff my cat into the pet carrier to take her home and she fought me and hissed at me. I had to pet her a lot to apologize later. lol!!
Good morning to you! Looks like you may not have to stuff your hiding kitties into the pet carriers after all! Last storm I had to stuff my cat into the pet carrier to take her home and she fought me and hissed at me. I had to pet her a lot to apologize later. lol!!
Seems like a lot of uncertainty at the end of the week. Tracking is all over the place. Must be some weak steering currents.
Great image really bring it all home.
Once again no telling how many hours you put into this many of us appreciate what you do.
I figure Hurricane Franklin influence plays into the later Atlantic portion of the Idalia forecast models.
Gotta go to work,great job as usual!
For the uninformed: Once a hurricane makes landfall, the wind field expands.
Enjoy! Thank you for your great insights and info.
The kitties are doing the happy dance. They will stay home in their kingdom.
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