Posted on 07/13/2023 8:32:10 AM PDT by Republicans 2016 2020
We don’t need to have major-party presidential nominees to have a conversation about a third-party spoiler candidate affecting the 2024 presidential election. Faced with the prospect of a rematch between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, at least two alternatives have already emerged: The bipartisan No Labels organization is working toward fielding a centrist presidential ticket, while Cornel West, a well-known public intellectual and political progressive, has launched a bid for the Green Party’s nomination.
These efforts have Democrats fretting that both bids could garner support from voters who might otherwise back Biden against Trump, thereby boosting Trump’s chances of winning. So what do we know about the situations in which third-party bids become spoiler campaigns?
Initial evidence suggests that, in a rematch between Biden and Trump, a No Labels and/or West campaign could pull marginal support from Biden and subtly shift the election toward Trump. Whether this would actually make for a potential spoiler, though, is a different question: History — and common sense — suggest that these possible third-party candidates would be most likely to affect the outcome if the overall race were close. But in our deeply divided political era, close elections have been the norm, which makes a spoiler candidacy a live possibility.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
They’re scared of Cornel West. That guy might get a lot of blacks in the south and cost them NC and GA. Black Philly voters too.
There will be no spoiling anything for Biden, he won’t be on the ballot.
Third Party Candidates? Didn’t we learn anything from H. Ross Perot?
Actually No. There are many FReepers who proudly voted for Perot thereby giving Clinton the win. And they would do so again.
The 3rd party would have to be leftist.
that’s not likely.
Liberals are very lock-step. Few politicos will step out of the Dem party OT1H, and OTOH if the politicos do, not so many of the voters will. Little chance for a win even if the Dem broke off as 3rd party. But it is the only way I think it would help Trump.
Yes, I did it.
The 1st time.
But not the 2nd.
The good news is few 3rd party candidates do as well as Perot did even the 2nd time. (Do you know that no one has done as well even as Perot’s 2nd run in our modern R-D history? Never mind his 1st run.)
The bad news is we are so 50/50 now, that any 3rd parry might be a tipping point.
It would have been interesting to see the comments if Free Republic had existed in 1992.
Just in general, the Free Republic consensus, probably would have been, that George Herbert Walker Bush was not conservative enough, and thus not worthy of support.
Many Freepers today , are critical of many Republicans , and the reason is that they say these Republicans are not conservative enough. So I’m sure the same reasoning applied to those who didn’t support Bush in 1992.
Self esteem trumps America
As long as there is mail-in voting, early voting, any excuse absentee, ballot harvesting, and RCV-enabled voting machines, the only thing a third party candidate is there to do is help Deep State hide voter fraud.
Period.
Drivel
I was for Bush that year, but today he’d count as uniparty — his son as well.
West would hurt the Democrats. So would Manchin or Huntsman. Libertarians are a question mark. Rural Libertarians might like Trump or DeSantis, but I suspect those in cities and suburbs lean Democrat. RFK might hurt Trump more than Biden, but “sore loser” laws might be a factor.
Riiiiiiiight....
What is drivel?
I have to say I didn’t think Bush was conservative enough so went Perot.
But I don’t know if everyone here would be like that.
Just give a buck to Cornell West. Bang for the buck. What are the republicans going to do with your money?
Ballot harvesting. We’re asleep at the switch:
Third Party Candidates? Didn’t we learn anything from H. Ross Perot?
Actually No. There are many FReepers who proudly voted for Perot thereby giving Clinton the win. And they would do so again.
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Unfortunately, you are right. I once believed that Kennedy would be great as a Biden spoiler third party candidate until I started reading praiseful comments about him right here on F.R. I do believe that there is a segment of our membership that would actually vote for Kennedy in the general election.
I am 78 years old and have never, in my lengthy voting history, voted for or supported a democrat for any office and I ain’t about to start by voting for a Kennedy.
The only Kennedy, on the political scene I have any respect for would be U.S. Senator Republican John Kennedy of Louisiana.
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