Posted on 06/21/2023 7:53:34 PM PDT by delta7
Since the Ukrainian abrogation of the Istanbul non-aggression and neutrality agreement of March 2022, which President Vladimir Putin displayed to a delegation of African leaders last Saturday, one thing has been clear. The pact to end this war will be drafted and signed by Ukrainian soldiers who have been defeated in the field, not by civilian politicians who are paid and instructed by Washington.
The terms will be dictated by Russian soldiers. They will calculate the distances to be covered by long-range NATO artillery and missile launches on Russian territory, and of Ukrainian terrorist attacks into Russian regions. These are military facts the Russian General Staff have a long history of calculating, plotting them on maps and reinforcing the depth of defence and control lines – as long ago as the Soviet Army war against the US-backed Afghan mujahideen.
Since last November, when this website published first maps of a demilitarized zone for the Ukrainian territory, the depth of the Russian defence lines has been moving steadily westward. As each of the Ukrainian strategic reserves – units newly trained and armed by the US and NATO states – are committed to battle and fail, their retreat leaves all of the remaining Ukrainian territory open to a Russian advance.
What follows is the first detailed discussion in the open in Moscow of how the map of this territory should be drawn when the Ukrainian offensive reaches its end, and the Russian advance begins.
Left out of mention is who in Moscow will be drawing the new map. This is because Putin has annonced he is delegating to the General Staff. “Russia’s military leadership,” he said on June 9, “is realistic in its assessments of the situation and will proceed from these realities as it continues to plan up our actions in the short term.”
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had already said the same a year ago. “Now the geography is different,” he concluded an interview in Moscow on July 20, 2022. “Take the HIMARS. [Ukrainian] Defence Minister Alexei Reznikov boasts that they have already received 300-kilometre ammunition. This means our geographic objectives will move even further from the current line. We cannot allow the part of Ukraine that Vladimir Zelensky, or whoever replaces him, will control to have weapons that pose a direct threat to our territory or to the republics that have declared their independence and want to determine their own future.”
“[Question:] How can this be arranged, technically? This is our territory. Then there are the republics that will accede to us. In fact they already have – the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. … Further west, there is the territory controlled by Vladimir Zelensky. They have a common border. So either there should be a 300 kilometre buffer zone or something between them, or we need to march all the way to Lvov inclusive.”
“[Lavrov:] There is a solution to this problem. The military know this.” “Comrade servicemen,” Lavrov added last week on a visit to the 201st Russian Military Base in Tajikistan, “they are getting ready, in earnest, to supply the F-16 jets. Some say they will make two squadrons available, others say eight. They are gearing up to continue the escalation of the war against us. There’s an ongoing debate about where these planes will take off from. Our armed forces and the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces are well aware of ongoing developments and report to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. We must keep in mind that one version of the F-16 can carry nuclear weapons. If they do not understand this, they are worthless military strategists and planners.”
The General Staff have no reason to speak publicly on this point. Privately, a source in a position to know says: “the General Staff are not satisfied with the Dnieper [line of defence]. It will run from a small town on the border with Belarus to Transnistria. They will solve that problem as well. But mainly, Belarus has to be protected from the south. And most importantly, that leaves nothing of the Ukraine except the territory which the Poles and Hungarians might not be bold enough to take.”
Vladimir Putin spoke twice this week about the creation of a “sanitary cordon” on the territory of Ukraine. This line should protect the territories of the Russian Federation from the attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine [AFU], which receive long-range missiles from the West. Russia has experience in creating such a zone in Afghanistan, but in the new realities we may be talking about a larger project. In which territories is such a cordon necessary, first of all?
Moscow will consider the possibility of creating a “sanitary cordon” on the territory of Ukraine if the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue attacks on Russian territories. This was stated by Russian President Vladimir Putin during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. “They should just understand where it all leads to. We are working on military targets with high–precision long-range and high-power weapons and are achieving success,” he added.
Putin raised this topic at a meeting with military officers at the beginning of the week. “The possibility of shelling our territory from the territory of Ukraine remains, of course. There are several ways to solve this: firstly, increasing the effectiveness of counter-battery warfare. But this does not mean that the incoming so-called will not be on our territory. And if this continues, then we will probably have to consider the issue, I say this very carefully, in order to create some kind of sanitary zone on the territory of Ukraine at such a distance from which it would be impossible to get our territory,” the president said.
The width and boundaries of this “sanitary zone” depend on the range of weapons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov added on Saturday. “The more advanced the tactical and technical characteristics of weapons in Ukraine, the greater this distance should be,” he stressed.
Outline map of UDZ – June 13, 2023. The head of the Duma Defense Committee, Andrei Kartapolov, also said that the “sanitary zone” would have to be free of weapons reaching the territory “that Russia considers its own.” According to the deputy, the General Staff should “form a concept and report to the president” on the creation of such a zone.
Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev mentioned back in March that the “sanitary strip” in Ukraine would not allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to use weapons at medium and short distances of 70-100 km. But already this week [June 14], in his Telegram channel, Medvedev said that, taking into account the decision of the West to supply Kiev with long-range weapons, the line of the demilitarized “sanitary zone” should run “along the borders of Lvov (Polish Lemberg) in order to play a real defensive role. “Then they will be the new secure borders of what used to be called the ‘404 country,'” he wrote.
Source: https://t.me/ June 14, 2023. In the second paragraph, Medvedev said: “If we proceed from the proven complicity of Western countries in undermining the Nord Stream [pipelines], then not even moral restrictions are left for us to refrain from destroying the cable communication of our enemies laid on the ocean floor.”
“It is more accurate to use the term “buffer zone”. Having taken control of this zone, in the outcome we are unlikely to give it to Ukraine,” says Alexander Perendzhiev, Associate Professor of the Department of Political Analysis and Socio–Psychological Processes at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, and a member of the expert council of “Officers of Russia”. “If Ukraine continues to shoot, the process of advancing Russian troops to the west may be endless,” he added.
According to this expert, the “sanitary cordon” could now become the Dnieper River. “Remember the Great Stand on the Ugra in 1480. This event is considered the completion of the overthrow of the Mongol-Tatar yoke in Russia. Now we can also assume that the liberation of the southern underbelly in the form of Odessa, Nikolaev, and up to the border with Transnistria will take place,” Perendzhiev suggested. But there are other opinions, too.
“If such a zone is created, it will run from the Bug to the Vistula, but not along the Dnieper line, because many supporters of Russia, Russians, live in Kiev. This is traditionally our land, which was part of the Russian Empire, the USSR. Therefore, we have every right to talk about a security line on territories fundamentally different from the territories historically belonging to Russia. Russia’s geopolitical interests extend much further than the Dnieper line,” said Oleg Ivannikov, a military political scientist and lieutenant colonel (reserve) at the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
According to Ivannikov, today the number one task is the denazification of the Kiev regime. Therefore, when there are fundamental political changes in the Ukrainian statehood, “the very question of creating buffer zones would become irrelevant.” “We are not talking about the firing of tanks, mortars, large-calibre artillery at our territories. Western artillery systems have the ability to hit targets at a distance of up to 40 kilometres. The fact that such a zone should be near Donetsk and further from the DPR border is unequivocal. And also in the LPR, in the Kherson region and in Zaporozhye – where there is still fighting. Of course, we are talking about the Belgorod region and the Bryansk region, which borders with the Sumy and Chernigov regions,” said Vasily Dandykin, captain of the 1st rank, deputy editor–in-chief of the Warrior of Russia magazine.
He recalled that Russia already has experience in creating a buffer zone in Afghanistan. “When the 40th Combined Arms Army was there, which was part of a limited contingent of Soviet troops, the “sanitary zone” was provided by the border troops of the USSR. They had maneuverable groups that did not allow the mujahideen to enter the rear of our group on the territory for tens of kilometers,” the expert said.
According to Dandykin, the size of the “sanitary cordon” depends on what range of weapons the enemy will have. “If these are long-range cruise missiles, then a zone of 40 kilometres does not make sense. Now Ukraine has HIMARS MLRS [multiple launch rocket systems] with missiles with a flight range of up to 80 kilometres. The Americans can supply missiles with a range of up to 200 kilometres,” Dandykin said.……….
Not really, because we know it is just bluster and bravado.
Mother Russia is just wandering around in her nighty unable to comprehend that the reason her ass hurts is because it is being consistently beaten
Oh I was around in the 1970s and 1980s, from Brezhnev to Gorbachev, and remember exactly how awful the USSR was back then.
However, it's pretty clear from your posts on these threads that you actually admire the Soviets in general, and Stalin in particular, and would be perfectly happy living on your knees in a totalitarian state as long as you had your factory job and daily vodka.
So you agree the “ New” post war Ukraine will look like the map? Some EU member states have similar maps drawn up, I have yet to see any US maps of post war Ukraine…..
Most all are agreed on the “ sterile zone” concept unlike a failed DMZ concept.I call it the “ dead “ zone…
Timber Rattler: Hitler and Stalin would have loved you.
Recognizing geopolitical realities — such as "Don't threaten to bring a historically antagonistic military alliance to your neighbor's doorstep when said neighbor has publicly warned everyone for decades that they would consider such a critical threat to their national security and respond accordingly" — is hardly the sole purview of historical dictators.
The reality is that powerful nations have spheres of influence. Sometimes, they go to the trouble of diplomacy to ensure that they don't get themselves entangled in the sphere of influence of a peer competitor, as Great Britain and the German Empire did in 1886 with regards to their holdings in the West Pacific.
The government of Ukraine apparently believed that fully aligning themselves with NATO, in spite of Russia's repeated warnings over the past decades that they would not tolerate such an encroachment within their sphere of influence, was worth the risk.
But, given that one of the Zelensky Administration's own advisors just publicly denigrated the competence of an African delegation to Ukraine and Russia (which is a diplomatic snafu of the highest order when your goal should be to get as many people on your side against Russia; essentially calling Africans 'useless and stupid' can only hurt your cause), making risky decisions seems to be Ukraine's calling card these days.
🙄 The only thing that this article shows is that the Russians have not given up on their imperialistic pretensions. Let’s first dispense with the lie that Ukraine has “abrogated” the so-called Istanbul ‘agreement’. There was no agreement. The piece of paper that Putin is waving around was just the proposals and it showed that the two sides were still very far apart. But lying in this fashion is very typical of the Russian regime. They do it daily to their own people without consequences so they expect to be able to get away with it with foreign audiences. Btw, why was there no mention of Russia abrogating its commitments under the Budapest memorandums?
The rest of the article was filled with similar nonsense, with the aggressor nation demanding a security zone from the victim. We also get the familiar refrain that Ukraine’s statehood should be revisited because it is part of ‘historical Russia’.
The only new element is the demand that the security zone needs be be drawn on the Bug and Vistula rivers. So is eastern Poland now a target of Russian imperialism? It too was once part of ‘historical Russia’. Are Finland and the Baltic republics next? When will Russia demand a security zone that includes the ‘historic Warsaw Pact’?
This all very similar to the Imperial German Staff still drawing up maps in 1917 of which parts of France that Germany would annex after the World War I.
Do you have any proof for that statement? I suspect it is just another typical lie put out by Russian propagandists.
Not Russian propaganda, just a non sequitur. The Russo-Ukrainian war has nothing to do with same-sex marriage. It’s about Russia’s imperialistic territorial claims.
“Oh I was around in the 1970s and 1980s”
Perhaps, but if you don’t know what the status of Finland and Austria during that time, then it doesn’t matter if you were around.
“However, it’s pretty clear from your posts on these threads that you actually admire the Soviets in general, and Stalin in particular, and would be perfectly happy living on your knees in a totalitarian state as long as you had your factory job and daily vodka.”
And please cool it with the PERSONAL ATTACKS. You were doing very since the mods last talked to on this topic, please try to improve as we do have rules here.
The piece of paper that Putin is waving around was just the proposals
———
That paper had signatures of the Ukie negotiations team. I will not spoon feed you. Go online, search and pull up the numerous images supplied by most all of the non western media.
That said, The corrupted little beggar has announced ,quote a “ Pause” on their glorious offensive. … two weeks of slamming into the Russian brick wall would be one explanation, I am sure you will find other “ explanations “.
Carry on , War cheerleader. You are headed for one heck of a hang over, brought to you by senile Joe’s western MSM.
Get over yourself Bob. And it is clear that you admire the Soviets, so don’t deny it.
Prove it!
I love all the keyboard commandos who pretend to know Vlads mind. Having trained Ivan’s in Moscow for three years, visiting the belligerents countries ( yes I even witnessed Ivan’s pull out of Lithuania first hand- in country), Etc I can say the Russian Federation is not the USSR, they have a strong military, numerous weapons the US has not, are united, and have plenty of cash coming in to fund this Lughansk, Donetsk Independence war, which began on n 2014.
That said, anyone can see that after Artymovsk, and this failed grand offensive,destruction of large amounts of western equipment, the Ukies are spent.
The Poles have been totally poisoned by Globohomo, just like the rest of the GAE.
https://twitter.com/YIMBYPoland/status/1671250463512236034
Well that explains a lot...FSB or GRU?
Self revealing. Isn't he?
He just couldn’t help himself. He’s only one of several here on Putin’s payroll.
You have posted more than once you are former 82nd Airborne and spent three years training Ivans. That is a vague statement. Can you elaborate what you mean? Who did you train and what was the nature of the training?
Unbelievable ! They are going again tonight.
Attacking south from Orikhiv. Down the same road. To the same result (destroyed vehicles).
On this try (fourth ? fifth?) they finally got thru the northernmost minefield and are in the Rabotino minefield.
https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1671953839233138690
My training of Ivan’s was 20 years after my 82nd days. My training of RSAF in Saudi was ten years after my 82nd days, both “ foreign private sector” employment. My “ .gov” days as a Colombian Army advisor was 30 years after the 82nd…I am not willing to disclose companies, names, nor job descriptions.
That said, I have much “ boots on the ground” non DOD experience and have witnessed over 30 years of our government’s decaying, black ops play book. Since Rice’s DOS reign, we have turned to a degenerate, dishonest, lying foreign policy…solidly realized with Nobama’s reign.
Biden’s reign is absolutely the most corrupted, immoral, lying administration the US has ever experienced….making Nobama’s reign look like the Demon’s varsity team.
That said, people will believe what they want to believe, are willing to be spoon fed by a corrupted media, my advice: chose your sources very, very carefully.This administration is guilty of crimes of commision, but worse yet, crimes of omission. Post war will reveal all.
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