It was known since the end of the Cold War and especially 1994 that Russia did not want NATO to expand into former Soviet Republics.
Russia has openly, many times, expressed this concern and we did make this promise to them. Just like we signed a Ballistic Missile Treaty with them and then withdrew. Just like we agreed to a Minsk agreement and then violated it.
Russia knew that a unified Germany would be in NATO. They knew and they accepted NATO Expansion in Eastern Europe.
It wasn’t until 2004 where we pulled a fast one on them with Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia where Russia got pissed.
Then in 2008 when we tried it in the Republic of Georgia they invaded.
Then in Ukraine as we were playing our games there and promised them NATO, they invaded in 2014.
Get this into you skull: NO MAJOR POWER WANTS ANOTHER PLAYING ON THEIR BORDER, NOT EVEN US.
The only reason why we are as aggressive as we are with Russia is because everything is the other way around, i.e. they are a weak conventional force and we think we can just do with them whatever we want. We would never dare do the same in Taiwan and with the PRC.
The Soviet Empire is gone. The Warsaw Pact is gone.
What you have today is Russia when compared to the US has 55% of our ground forces, 47% of our air forces, 43% of our naval forces, 1 carrier and it’s not even on par with any of our 11 super carriers. Russia has 44% of our population, 40% the number of men reaching military age we do. Russia has less industry, less high tech, and an economy (GDP) <1/10 our size. They have few allies, all of them are weak in every sense and most have their own security issues to where it is very difficult for them to do much in terms of military assistance. Their most powerful and dependable ally would be Belarus, which likely has an inferior military to the Netherlands (one of our weaker NATO allies). Russia relies on conscription and that is usually an issue regards institutional knowledge, discipline and morale for a military. Russia does not have Central and South America to fall back on, an endless supply of bodies. These places routinely become the source for soldiers and even today we are actively recruiting in Columbia, Brazil, etc. for our war in Ukraine. That’s where many of the mercenaries in the worlds largest mercenary force ever assembled come from: https://t.me/TrackAMercChat
The only area where Russia is on an equal footing with us is in terms of their nuclear deterrence. That’s it.
That said, it is precisely because Russia is a weak conventional force, that we are as belligerent with them as we are.
Do you see us acting the same way regards Taiwan and the PRC?
We simply gambled and did not expect Russia to come out of their corner swinging like they did.
We were hoping they would simply acquiesce.