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To: BroJoeK

The only “smart guy” argument:

Assuming the US is that strategic thinking, this war in Ukraine long term weakens Russia on the international stage.

Of course Russia isn’t the fool and mobilized forces and is rotating them in and out, maintaining troop levels that are sustainable in Ukraine while also covering down their other interests.

We have been encroaching into their sphere of influence for years, and as Russia burns up military personnel, material, puts their forces under operational stress, as their economy does not recognize its full potential that would have been without the economic damage caused by us, their ability to fight us off in their frontier (Libya, Venezuela, Syria, Republic of Georgia...) becomes more difficult.

The problem with this argument is that while it serves our global strategic vision, it simply uses Ukraine as an expendable pawn. However, that would explain our continuance of a war which has become a stalemate for Ukraine, and war of attrition for both parties. That attrition part, the stress we’re putting on the Russian military apparatus is what we really care about.

In the case of us having a global strategic vision and simply depleting Russia, Ukraine does not end up a winner.


90 posted on 06/23/2023 4:15:04 PM PDT by Red6
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To: Red6
Red6: "Russia isn’t the fool and mobilized forces and is rotating them in and out, maintaining troop levels that are sustainable in Ukraine while also covering down their other interests."

Sure, we'd assume that's true, since it's how we operated in Iraq and Afghanistan all those years.
On the other hand, we're hearing reports which say that nearly all of Russia's fighting forces (as opposed to administration and support) are already in Ukraine.
Since there's no way for us to learn the real truth of this, we just have to leave it as a big question mark.
My guess is that our intelligence services likely have a pretty good idea of how many reserve & surge forces Vlad still has.

Red6: "We have been encroaching into their sphere of influence for years, and as Russia burns up military personnel, material, puts their forces under operational stress, as their economy does not recognize its full potential that would have been without the economic damage caused by us, their ability to fight us off in their frontier (Libya, Venezuela, Syria, Republic of Georgia...) becomes more difficult."

The immediate question is neither Libya nor Venezuela, but rather Moscow -- can Putin still put down a revolt in his own ranks?
We'll see.

Red6: "The problem with this argument is that while it serves our global strategic vision, it simply uses Ukraine as an expendable pawn.
However, that would explain our continuance of a war which has become a stalemate for Ukraine, and war of attrition for both parties.
That attrition part, the stress we’re putting on the Russian military apparatus is what we really care about."

Now you're just reverting to form -- the insane Marxist ideology you learned as a child and just can't shake off.
The truth is that Ukraine now has the most capable military force in Europe -- arguably, man for man better than any others, especially Russians.
They are well earning their rights to call themselves our friends and allies, economic, military and social.
They will be admitted to NATO and the EU as soon as that becomes practical.

So Ukraine is forever.
It's Russia that is temporary.

Red6: "In the case of us having a global strategic vision and simply depleting Russia, Ukraine does not end up a winner."

Ukraine will be the EU's 28th member state.
Ukraine will be NATO's 32 or 33rd member state.

Russia could split into its component parts and no longer threaten the West as it increasingly focuses on fending off Chinese encroachments in the East.

Nobody yet knows for sure.

92 posted on 06/24/2023 9:12:06 AM PDT by BroJoeK (future DDG 134 -- we remember)
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