Replies

In 10-15 years the Euros will be sucking on the Russian gas pipe again (needed to stay competitive), even the North American / Euro sanctions will be history, and 20% of what once was Ukraine is learning the Patrioticheskaya Pesnya in schools.

Get over it, you lost.

The only difference from 2014 (in fact this was worse for Ukraine) is that today we have an amazing media operation and mass censorship in place, at least politically everyone in the West is united... But the result is the same.

What folks like you can’t seem to get through your skull is that Russia has something everyone needs, energy: gas, oil, coal and other strategic resources like titanium, copper, gold and platinum. Things which make a high tech and industrial economy possible.

You’re not dealing with some chump like Iraq or Libya. In
fact, we’re also paying the price already through inflationary pressures and eventual arming of our adversaries, PRC doing real well since they are leveraging Ukraine against us in their deals...

As Ukraine burns through a few thousand more lives, keeps up moral with their equivalent of “wunderwaffen,” and fantasies of how things are going reminiscent of the “Wochenschau,” I realize that you are right.

These things simply need to run their course. It won’t end any earlier than before the Ukrainian side has exhausted its means. Once Ukraine is pumped dry it ends since the West isn’t bleeding (we’ll keep this going for a while) and throwing huge sums of money at problems is our normal MO. It’s even profitable for some!

But the end will still be the same. You lose land, port cities, an industrial area, have millions displaced, tens of thousands dead, damaged infrastructure, an economy that’s 40% smaller, high inflation, internal instability, and you’re not part of NATO or the EU. Congratulations on your victory!

Red5: "In 10-15 years the Euros will be sucking on the Russian gas pipe again (needed to stay competitive), even the North American / Euro sanctions will be history, and 20% of what once was Ukraine is learning the Patrioticheskaya Pesnya in schools.
Get over it, you lost."

Maybe. Maybe not.
One fact we know for certain is that nobody lives forever, and in 10-15 years, Vlad the Invader will no longer rule over Russia.
Already we are seeing signs that many Russians are not satisfied with Vlad's war, and maybe even Vlad is not satisfied with his generals.
Russia could collapse at the end of a disastrous war, it wouldn't be the first time.

Also, I notice you keep saying "20%", when the real number is about 14%.
So let's review the actual square miles:

100% = 233,062 square miles, Ukraine in 2013
7% = 16,000 square miles, occupied by Russia in 2014, includes Crimea and parts of the Donbas.
+20% = 46,000 square miles, additional Ukrainian lands occupied by Russia at maximum extent in March, 2022.
=27% = 62,000 square miles, total Ukrainian lands occupied by Russia at maximum in March, 2022.
-13% = 30,000 square miles, liberated by Ukrainians since March 2022.
=14% = 32,000 square miles, remaining under temporary Russian occupation.

Red5: "The only difference from 2014 (in fact this was worse for Ukraine) is that today we have an amazing media operation and mass censorship in place, at least politically everyone in the West is united... But the result is the same."

The situation today is vastly different from what it was in, say, 2015.

Red5: "What folks like you can’t seem to get through your skull is that Russia has something everyone needs, energy: gas, oil, coal and other strategic resources like titanium, copper, gold and platinum.
Things which make a high tech and industrial economy possible."

Sure, I "get" that.
What trained Marxists like yourself (and too many others on Free Republic!) "can’t seem to get through your skulls" is that economics is not everything.
Economics is not "uber ales".
Some things are more important than mere economics, and one of those is preventing Hitler-wannabees from invading and conquering their smaller neighbors.

That's what's going on in Ukraine today.

Red5: "You’re not dealing with some chump like Iraq or Libya.
In fact, we’re also paying the price already through inflationary pressures and eventual arming of our adversaries, PRC doing real well since they are leveraging Ukraine against us in their deals..."

Our current O'bama/O'biden administration's claims to the contrary notwithstanding, the current rising inflation is nearly 100% engineered by them through many $trillions of dollars in Covid, "Green New Deal" and the ironically named "Inflation reduction" borrowing & spending, combined with they anti-energy policies.
The US economic connections to Russia have always been minimal to nonexistent.
Russia is not a major factor in the US economy.

Yes, China is a different story, and I think many US businesses are beginning to understand that overreliance on China could / will be an economic death-trap for them in the future.

Red5: "As Ukraine burns through a few thousand more lives, keeps up moral with their equivalent of “wunderwaffen,” and fantasies of how things are going reminiscent of the “Wochenschau,” I realize that you are right."

Even including some 40,000 Ukrainian civilians killed by Russia's orcs, the best estimates we have show Russian casualties at roughly 50% more than Ukraine's.
It appears that Russians have suffered more from a year in Ukraine (circa 300,000 total casualties) than Soviets did for over 9 years in Afghanistan (circa 75,000 total casualties).

Red5: "But the end will still be the same. You lose land, port cities, an industrial area, have millions displaced, tens of thousands dead, damaged infrastructure, an economy that’s 40% smaller, high inflation, internal instability, and you’re not part of NATO or the EU. Congratulations on your victory!"

The end will be this:

Russians will be removed from part or all of the remaining 33,000 square miles (14% of Ukraine) they still temporarily occupy.
Russians will be required to help pay reparations for deaths & destruction they caused in Ukraine.
Russia itself may split apart, remembering that of Russia's circa 150 millions, only about 100 million are actual Russians.
The others don't like their "big brothers" any more than Ukrainians do.
Ukraine will join the EU and NATO.
Ukraine will enjoy a "Marshall Plan" style economic recovery, leading to a rapidly returning and growing population.
Vlad the Invader will be dead, his name cursed, his grave spat on.

Or, you could be right, but I don't think so.
For one thing, the economic odds favoring NATO are simply too high -- in the range of 10 to 1.
So Ukraine's friends can keep up their support far longer than Vlad the Invader can keep his weakened economy struggling to make more artillery shells.