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What happens when $2 trillion is sucked out of the global economy? It may not be pretty
CNN ^ | Fri May 19, 2023 | Julia Horowitz

Posted on 05/19/2023 8:12:32 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican

Central banks have been credited with averting a global depression twice over the past 15 years: Once after the 2008 financial crisis, and again at the height of the coronavirus pandemic.

But the tactics they deployed to restore confidence and keep money flowing from banks to the economy amounted to a high-stakes experiment — one that may be impossible to unwind without destabilizing the financial system.

Central banks purchased tens of trillions of dollars worth of government bonds and other assets in a bid to bring down longer-term borrowing costs and stimulate their economies. This measure, known as “quantitative easing,” or QE, created a flood of cheap cash and gave policymakers newfound sway over markets. Investors called it the era of “easy money.”

But since inflation hit its highest level in a generation last year, central banks have embarked on the quest — unprecedented in scale — of shrinking their bloated balance sheets by selling securities or letting them mature and disappear from their books. “Quantitative tightening,” or QT, by top central banks will suck $2 trillion in liquidity out of the financial system over the next two years, according to a recent analysis by Fitch Ratings.

A liquidity drain of that magnitude could amplify strains on the banking system and markets, which are already grappling with a sharp run-up in interest rates and edgy investors.

(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
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1 posted on 05/19/2023 8:12:32 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican

Ramping down QE would have been a lot easier without insane restrictions on oil production and delivery.

The really insane experiment was letting the Biden gang run the country - and the planet - off the rails.


2 posted on 05/19/2023 8:21:21 PM PDT by Regulator (It's fraud, Jim)
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To: MinorityRepublican

Understatement.

The debt that was created to inflate the money supply does not go away, just because you deflated the money supply. The debt is constant, for what hasn’t been paid down. It means repairing the inflation is going to leave a debt that has grown since the covid lie was started.


3 posted on 05/19/2023 8:26:26 PM PDT by Jonty30 (If liberals were truth tellers, they'd call themselves literals. )
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To: Regulator

Yep...


4 posted on 05/19/2023 8:29:23 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: Jonty30
The debt is constant

Until it's repudiated.

I give it 24 months, at the outside.

5 posted on 05/19/2023 8:30:51 PM PDT by Jim Noble (It is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government)
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To: MinorityRepublican
What to do? The Great Depression of the 1930s was the collapse of the gold-based monetary system. The fundamental problem of a gold-based currency is that you can't dig up enough gold from the ground to support a substantial degree of sustained economic growth. Economies become static under gold.

However, a paper-based currency will never overcome the propensity of human nature. These currencies will always inflate to a value of zero. The paper-based system collapsed in the 1600s during the Thirty Years War and having not learned from past mistakes, we're seeing it happen a second time.

To solve this problem, Milton Friedman proposed a reserve currency that grows annually at a locked rate that could not be altered, regardless of an economy's position in the business cycle. He thought this rate should be somewhere between 3 to 5 percent, but he wasn't sure what the precise number should be.

Perhaps the solution going forward is a crypto reserve currency, mined by independent miners all across the world (like Bitcoin), outside the control of a central bank. And lock the growth rate of this cryptocurrency at an annual growth rate of 4 percent (split the difference of Friedman's estimate).

6 posted on 05/19/2023 8:42:41 PM PDT by Right_Wing_Madman
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To: MinorityRepublican

The Austrian school knows immediatley what is wrong with QE, i.e. easy money created out of thin air. It leads to malinvestment-putting enormous resources into ventures that will not pay off in the sense of increasing net productivity. You know like build windmill farms and solar towers of power at great expense that at the end of the day don’t produce enough power to suppor their operating costs much less pay back the enormous investment to begin with.

Or investinging in ESG education which makes a people both unfit to govern and ungovernable rather than providing them with the normal skills of reading, writing arithmetic and other mechanical or creative arts that make people productive members of society. Or putting money into giving invaders a free ride rather than defending the borders and only letting in people who will be peaceable and productive members of our society. QE will be a gift that is going to be giving for a long time.


7 posted on 05/19/2023 8:55:51 PM PDT by AndyJackson
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To: MinorityRepublican
Central banks purchased tens of trillions of dollars worth of government bonds and other assets ...

While this is technically true, what is missing is that the US put up all the cash. The world was crashing and we made all the rich people of the world whole.

8 posted on 05/19/2023 8:57:49 PM PDT by stig
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To: MinorityRepublican
How much is the world debt?

“At close to $305 trillion, global debt is now $45 trillion higher than its pre-pandemic level and is expected to continue increasing rapidly,” the IIF said.

.

I wish had generous credit card company like that.

9 posted on 05/19/2023 9:31:10 PM PDT by Karl Spooner
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To: Karl Spooner
Looks like we're due for a gold rally! But they will go into more debt by trying to keep the price of gold down.


10 posted on 05/19/2023 9:46:13 PM PDT by Karl Spooner
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To: MinorityRepublican

$2 Trillion is just petty cash to FedGov. Look at the way they spend and spend and spend. They might try to scare us into trying to scale down but Washington DC is never going to slow down their spending, believe you me.


11 posted on 05/19/2023 10:07:53 PM PDT by OrangeHoof (No food in the stores; fuel prices too high? Thank a liberal.)
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To: AndyJackson
The Austrian school knows immediatley what is wrong with QE, i.e. easy money created out of thin air. It leads to malinvestment-putting enormous resources into ventures that will not pay off in the sense of increasing net productivity.

Well, you said it all so I don't have to....thanks!

12 posted on 05/19/2023 10:54:59 PM PDT by Chad C. Mulligan
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To: Jim Noble

Imagine the losses on the bonds Fannie May, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie May issued to be able to lend for 30 years at 3% to 4%.

They borrowed short term and lent long term.

All their debt is not part of the “National Debt. “


13 posted on 05/19/2023 11:35:02 PM PDT by tired&retired (Blessings )
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To: MinorityRepublican

When the combined u funded liabilities of just about every nation on earth is probably in the quadrillions what’s 2 trillion lousy dollars? The tax payers can be milked for that.


14 posted on 05/20/2023 1:08:45 AM PDT by Organic Panic (Democrats. Memories as short as Joe Biden's eyes)
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To: Jim Noble

Do you have a Degree in Business and/or major in econ?


15 posted on 05/20/2023 1:28:30 AM PDT by Lumper20 (Ham)
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To: MinorityRepublican

Bottom line they are preparing for a non monetary digital system with complete control from the central bank


16 posted on 05/20/2023 1:44:36 AM PDT by ronnie raygun
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To: MinorityRepublican

trump wants to avoid SS math and pay people to have babies. I notice he didn’t say taxpayers or citizens.
We know he means anyone, legal or not We are being invaded and he wants to pay them instead of something common sense like audit SS and strip it of everything except it’s original intent.
If you want to keep it as is. You are unaware of the blue state deep state slush fund it is.


17 posted on 05/20/2023 3:02:00 AM PDT by momincombatboots (BQEphesians 6... who you are really at war with. )
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To: AndyJackson

:...Or investing in ESG education which makes a people both unfit to govern and ungovernable...”

Or allowing homosexual depravity to run amok in schools and society.

Our constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other: John Adams


18 posted on 05/20/2023 4:27:13 AM PDT by Flavious_Maximus (Tony Fauci will be put on death row and die of COVID!)
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To: tired&retired
They borrowed short term and lent long term.

That is a huge pitfall, that an operating bank should avoid, but it is not the underlying problem. If the money had been put into productive investment - you know building factories and training workers for a thriving industry that would be the backbone of our economy for the next 30 years that would be one thing. But that is not where the money went. It was consumed. ESG favored "investments" is just as frivolous as coke and whores.

An investment is like a blacksmith providing a farmer a steel plow in return for which he get's a percentage of his increased agricultural production, sufficient over time to pay him back for his labor and materials in making the plow, plus a reasonable additional return on top of his costs, while also providing the farmer with an increased income from the sale of his increated production. Good investments lead to increased economic activity such that it is profitable for both the investor and investee. Such opportunities are "rare" and their identification and exploitation is hard work.

19 posted on 05/20/2023 4:42:19 AM PDT by AndyJackson
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To: Karl Spooner
To whom is "all the debt" owed?

Where did they (whomever) get the money to 'loan' out?


20 posted on 05/20/2023 5:02:55 AM PDT by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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