Posted on 05/02/2023 1:55:05 PM PDT by Mariner
Knowing that Crimea has been built into a fortress, Ukrainians talk about the “political military” liberation of Crimea, not a purely military counteroffensive, he said.
Once we have cut off the roads, railroads, and waterways to the peninsula, and targeted the military infrastructure with drones, we presume that many Russian inhabitants, especially recent immigrants, will become convinced that they would be better off living elsewhere, he said.
Some have reportedly fled already, The Atlantic noted, following an explosion on the Kerch Strait Bridge (which connects Crimea to Russia) and other explosions on the peninsula.
“We will take Crimea without a fight,” Reznikov told journalists.
(Excerpt) Read more at yahoo.com ...
I heartily agree. This daily excessive propaganda is annoying and should all be consolidated into one daily thread.
If the Ukrainians get to the Azov coast they would be able to do the same to the Kerch bridge as they did to the Dneiper bridges.
That would be part of the interdiction campaign we are talking about.
That is the best photo I have seen of it, good find.
I was looking at some of these threads from months ago. All of them ended up being horsecrap. And the breathless analysis by the armchair warriors wrong in every instance. You cannot evaluate false data and get useful answers or make predictions. All the data coming from Russia and the Ukraine and the NYT and the DailyMail is inaccurate and thus useless. And any conclusions or predictions from it are valueless. Best to stick it all in one thread so it’s easier to ignore.
Ahem. I predicted that the Ukrainians would take the Kherson bridgehead. And so they did.
I predicted that the Russian cruise missile campaign vs electric infrastructure would hit a point of diminishing returns - because it is not really a matter of destroying a fixed number of targets, but of fighting against a dynamic opponent that can repair damage. And so it has come to pass.
And I predicted that Europe, and Germany, would not “freeze in the dark”.
What have you predicted?
War is funny.... all the planning, propaganda, alliances, intel, logistics and tactics.... have one thing in common in all wars.....
The enemy gets a vote in how it turns out.
Cut off Crimea, attack into the "heart of Russia", threaten Putin's allies, friends and family members of his advisors.....even kill them... but always remember that the doorway goes both ways.
Poland, Baltics, Moldova, Finland and Germany better hope that Russia just decides to just stop and NATO/US decide that maybe a non-truce truce that makes a buffer around Russia is a good idea.
China can broker the deal, split the rebuilding money 20-80 with American Politicians and everybody will be happy...... except for the 100s of thousands of families of Russian and Ukrainian dead and wounded soldiers. What a waste....
The largest number of trips by auto was earlier recorded as 35,000, I presume that was one way. Very recently I have seen photos of long lines of cars waiting to cross the bridge into Russia. If there were an average of 2 people per car for 25,000 a day that would be 50,000 people a day leaving. For a week that would be 350,000. With under 2,000,000 people on Crimea, and perhaps 600,000 that did not leave after 2014, it would only take less than 2 months for most pro Russian civilians to depart. I doubt the Ukrainians will be bombing that bridge again any time soon. They don’t want to be responsible for people who don’t want to be there.
They might use a targeted drone attack on the rail bridge which last I heard could be used for passenger trains, but not for heavy equipment which needs to use the large ferries that were used prior to completion of the bridge in 2018. A month ago it was reported that full 4 lane traffic, 2 each way was back in service ahead of predictions, but the rail bridge might not be repaired until September. If it were repaired sooner, Ukraine might want to target the rail bridge to interfere with import of heavy weapons and fuel.
PIF—nice ship photo!
I examined the first fire on Sebastapol fuel depot a few days ago with considerable interest. Although only one drone got through to hit one fuel tank, eventually all 10 large ones probably were completely burned or rendered useless. I have heard nothing about a second major fuel fire at Sebastapol. On the other hand, earlier this evening there was a TV news crawl mentioning a derailing of the Russian freight train near the Ukraine border and a fire. Anyone have that on video?
Quit putting me on your ping list.
CNN discussion
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/18/europe/ukraine-moskva-warship-sinking-images-intl/index.html
Thanks, I’ll look at that tomorrow.
There are several Google posts about the train derailed by explosives. The aljazeera link below includes a nice map showing the location in Russia about equidistant from Ukraine and Belarus.
This next link reports another recent train derailment with fire also in the Bryansk region but closer to Ukraine. There is also a second link at this one, perhaps with photo of the other derailment.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65458847
What does it take to get you to quit putting me on your ping lists?
Reznikov is speaking hyperbolically as leaders in war usually speak of victory. He also knows more than the rest of us.
Russia is attacking places where logistics allow it to attack, not because of their value. That means Russian logistics everywhere else, at the front lines and behind, are mediocre at best.
Any breakthrough in Russian lines could lead to a collapse in that area, just as what happened in Kharkiv and Kherson.
The second Uke counteroffensive is developing, and they are playing it smart, attacking logistics instead of troops.
If the Russians use a nuke it would be a huge humiliation for them. It would prove that the Russian conventional army is completely incompetent, right down to toilet level. Russia would not survive such an humiliation. Putin would be killed by his own people.
Also, the retaliation from the West is already known. We would not respond with nuclear bombs, but we would sink the entire Russian Black Sea navy with advanced conventional means. A smart retaliation against the Neo-soviets in the Kremlin.
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