Posted on 03/03/2023 10:01:50 PM PST by Salvavida
Summary: Strategic analysis by former US Marine Intelligence Officer and UN Weapons Inspector Scott Ritter. His analysis is structured into three main parts:
Thesis: Ukraine/NATO Fooled Around and will Find Out (FAFO)
1. How we got here. Ukraine/NATO Fooled Around; the war is predicated on the 2008 move to invite Ukraine into NATO, and the 2014 coup. The United States played a major role in how this war started.
2. Where we are at. Russia is in a training phase of the main force-- it has not engaged yet. 300k mobilized (not part of the peacetime force) + another 100-180K volunteers. Ukraine war dead is approximately 300-350K matching the US total war dead from WWII. Meanwhile, the previous force structures (that were wholly inadequate to capture significant portions of Ukraine, are continuing to probe the Ukrainian lines and conducting shaping operations.
3. How it ends. Ukraine will Find Out. The main force engages and rolls the Ukrainian army take a tsunami. Russia gets all of its territory + 150 kilometers to account for maximum range of HIMARS artillery system. Ukraine ceases to exist in its current form.
“they say that when Ukrainians are sent to the front line,
their life expectancy is about 4 hours”
I didn’t know Scott personally. My boss did, and worked with him for a spell. The closest I intersected with Scott was when I was atop Mutla Ridge in Kuwait, looking down into Iraq during Desert Fox, while he was a UN Weapons Inspector.
With that said, Scott isn’t a Russian propagandist. His reputation, despite his character flaws outside of his service, was that of a very savvy intelligence officer. When Scott spoke, people listened. I find it incredulous he was keeping the Iraqi Ballistic Missile Order of Battle for Gen Schwarzkopf during Desert Shield/Storm. A freaking US Marine intelligence officer. Marines have zero expertise in that realm, but he did the work.
If you choose to believe General Milley, that’s cool. But Scott’s assessment (mixed with some theories) actually harmonizes both versions quite nicely.
I’ve listened to SR and have zero positive recollections.
The “Mossad” figure is alleged to be so by a Turkish news site, with no specific source given.
I really appreciated Scott’s struggle to interpret the beginning of the conflict, and why the Russian military performed so poorly. I was struggling too, but Scott studied Russian Order of Battle all of his career— I didn’t.
It does track however, with the reports of compelling aged men and boys into service. The Uks are simply running out of manpower.
I’ve listened to SR and have zero positive recollections.
> None so blind as those who do not see.
I think that is “will not see”. Denial is not a river in Egypt.
Yeah, you are correct. None so blind as those who will not see. 🙂 👍
He hasn’t been correct yet. Just more of the same disinformation that he has been posting for the past year.
That's a new take on child sex predators. Usually Free Republic posters don't step up to defend pedophiles who act on their urges. And Ritter obviously was totally comfortable misleading everyone around him.
Are there any "character flaws" that make you doubt someone's reliability as a source of information?
Scott Ritter and McGegor...two outcast louts with zero credibility.
Russia invaded Georgia. Russia invaded and illegally annexed Crimea.
They aren’t winning in Ukraine.
Or it may be an accurate assessment of the risks involved in very high intensity combat. That life expectancy has occurred in many other wars involving high intensity battles for the soldiers that are actually at the front of the fighting force.
Regardless of what army you are serving in, or what war, if you are storming a trench or a building with equally trained and equipped soldiers on the other side where both sides have mortars, IFVs, tanks, and other assets your life expectancy is very short.
Not defending his actions at all. But I’m able to separate his personal life from professional. I hope Scott got the right treatment, but there is nothing in his analysis that informs me he is deliberately misleading people. He is not the only former officer that shares his views.
It is without a doubt a deadly battlefield with technology that is even more deadly than Desert Storm. The evolvement of the Russian BM-21 for example, is absolutely terrifying.
But for a single source to say the average life expectancy of a Ukrainian soldier on the front being 4 hours— you have to have a lot of data. Perhaps he has it-— I don’t know.
“Russia invaded and illegally annexed Crimea.”
Russia took Crimea from the Ottoman Empire in 1783 and kept it without a break until 1991.
In 1991 Crimea held a referendum in which 90% of the votes were for associating with Russia. The Crimean parliament ignored that result voted to join Ukraine.
Crimea was part of Ukraine. Otherwise the Russians would not have had to have a sham vote to pretend like they were taking it legally.
Crimea is recognized by the international community as illegally annexed Ukrainian territory. Period.
You changed the title to "Perhaps the Shortest, Best Video Explaining the War in Ukraine". That implies you think what Ritter says is credible.
Your homepage says you are former Marine intelligence, why do you think Ritter is credible?
Why post anything from Ritter, when everything he says other than his name falls between selectively misleading to bald faced lying?
I do think Scott is credible, as I do Col Macgregor. It doesn’t mean I think they are right all the time. However, he is more correct on how we got to where we are at, and I agree with him on how this ends.
I knew Scott by reputation only. As I stated before, he is a very savvy intelligence officer.
But please disagree. That’s kind of what we do here in FR.
Scott Ritters rep was destroyed during the run up to the War against Iraq 2. The problem with that is, he was correct. GW, Cheney, Powell and MSM howling monkeys were wrong.
Says you, crooked vote. Worry about Americas crooked vote and what destruction it will be wrought upon us all.
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