Posted on 01/21/2023 5:53:59 AM PST by FarCenter
TOKYO -- What looks to be a record-breaking year for wheat production in Australia has brought down international prices driven up by poor weather and the war in Ukraine, drawing attention from China and other Asian buyers.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects Australia to produce 36.6 million tonnes of wheat in its 2022-23 marketing year, an all-time high. After a smooth planting season, growing areas have received plentiful rain. Concerns that heavy rainfall during the harvest season might affect quality did not change the USDA's forecast.
High wheat prices were a driver of last year's soaring inflation in many countries, prompting warnings of a global food crisis. Now, market pressures are easing.
Much of Australia's wheat goes to Asia, which accounts for one-quarter of global wheat imports, and particularly China, the region's top consumer of the grain.
China imported 7.87 million tonnes of wheat overall from January to October, stocking up for year-end and early 2023 consumption, Chinese customs data shows. Around 60% of the total, or over 4.9 million tonnes, came from Australia, up from 1.9 million tonnes, or about one-fifth, a year earlier.
"The quality of Australian wheat fits well with China's need for wheat to make noodles," said Ruan Wei of Japan's Norinchukin Research Institute.
Price is a factor as well. Australian wheat cost China an estimated $370 a tonne in October based on Chinese customs data. This is cheaper than the $440 or so paid for wheat from the U.S., where worries about poor weather reducing output have kept prices elevated. Market watchers at Japanese trading houses see Australian wheat exports as increasingly competitive both for food and animal feed.
Meanwhile, shipping conditions in China have improved. A shortage of truck drivers hindered transport from ports to inland areas early last year, forcing ships to wait for up to 30 days to unload grain cargoes.
"Now, truck drivers are coming back as the coronavirus outbreak settles down, and wait times for ships are down to a few days," said a representative at Japanese shipping broker Exeno Yamamizu.
so the shortage thing was just more crap
Kudos to your countrymen and women
So apparently the wef fertilizer ban isn’t working in Australia as planned? That will be fixed soon.
There was no shortage, as it turned out.
Prices spiked March-May 2022 but calmed down. Actual global production increased substantially in 2022.
However, so did global demand. People around the world ARE eating better, or more anyway. Wheat prices are still rather high vs recent norms.
Check it out -
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/wheat-price/usd
Yeah where were all those food shortages that were supposed to happen last fall? (For that matter where was that $6 gas we were warned about here in the East Coast?)
There are people who love to perpetrate fear on other people and we have people who fall for it hook line and sinker. This also applies to some (but not all) folks around these parts.
It’s the marvel of capitalism:
1) Prices go up
2) People are incentivized to increase production
3) Prices go down
It takes some time for the system to work, but it always does.
It’s why the only ones predicting long term shortages are crypto-Marxists who don’t believe in the free market.
In spite of globa warming/s
“Wheat prices are still rather high vs recent norms“
Which guarantees production of more wheat. (Unless something some govt does somewhere interferes.)
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