Posted on 09/23/2022 2:32:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The late-blooming 2022 Atlantic Tropical Storm season is making up for lost time. A tropical system has developed in the Central Caribbean Sea. This storm system is forecast to threaten continental U.S. interests next week. While the tropical wave passed south of a key geographic area known as Hebert's Box #1, it will very likely pass through Hebert's Box #2. These boxes are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida. For more information about Hebert's Boxes, see Hebert Box. See graphic below which illustrated the Hebert's Boxes.
Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.
Looks like very good news for Tampa/St. Pete. Not so much for Ft. Meyers/Sanibel/Captiva.
Notice:
If you are in Pinellas County area ... they will be closing the bridges in about 6 to 8 hours ...
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa
* Bonita Beach to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwanee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
* Marineland to the mouth of the St. Mary’s River
* St. Johns River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Suwannee River to the Anclote River
* Flamingo to Bonita Beach
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys
* Boca Raton to Altamaha Sound
* Lake Okeechobee
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Florida Bay
* Aucilla River to Suwanee River
* Mouth of St. Mary’s River to South Santee River
* South of Marineland to the Volusia/Flagler county line
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Anclote River to Suwannee River
* South of Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Suwannee River to Indian Pass
* North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River
* South of Boca Raton to east of Flamingo
* Upper Florida Keys
* Florida Bay
As of this moment, storm surge is less of a hazard for Tampa Bay than torrential, persistent rains and wind.
That high pressure dome in the northern Gulf is moving south really fast. Compare on the vapor loop to the speed of Ian.
There has been so much uncertainty with the forecast track, it is hard to take anything for granted.
This might catch fort Myers metro off guard in the right eye wall (pop 750,000)
could be only 33 hours to landfall
YEP,...taking a SouthEast ‘bend’......
It’s back over warm water ....Looks to enter Sarasota County....Wed. Evening but Euro model says Wed. afternoon.
All Models still take Ian all acroos Florida.
Further south it goes less storm surge - but don’t let that get people off guard. All this can change as it moves.
“There has been so much uncertainty with the forecast track, it is hard to take anything for granted.”
European models had this days ago.
My guy says will be a Cat 4 by tomorrow afternoon.
People should know..... if you’re in a mandatory evacuation zone during this storm ...help will not be coming. You’re on your own.
You are 100% correct. Downtown Fort Myers is surrounded by the Caloosahatchee River.
Thanks for the heads up. My family in St. Pete is prepping to evacuate towards Wesley Chapel in the next few hours.
Captiva split in two, north and south Captiva, after Hurricane Charley. This storm could be a total wipe out.
This damn storm.
“Captiva split in two, north and south Captiva, after Hurricane Charley. “
-————wiki-————
Hurricane Charley struck the northern tip of Captiva Island and the southern tip of North Captiva Island,
Yea, I think there is a resort on "both sides" now.
I know you are extremely busy living in the hurricane target zone, but the conversion is 1 kts = 1.15 mph. Thanks for staying on top of this. I have friends in the area.
Ping to find as needed.
Hope this helps:
You can use this NOAA link to locate info for your address or location:
https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/real-time-imagery/hurricane-tracker
Tampa Fl https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/real-time-imagery/hurricane-tracker:
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