Posted on 09/23/2022 2:32:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The late-blooming 2022 Atlantic Tropical Storm season is making up for lost time. A tropical system has developed in the Central Caribbean Sea. This storm system is forecast to threaten continental U.S. interests next week. While the tropical wave passed south of a key geographic area known as Hebert's Box #1, it will very likely pass through Hebert's Box #2. These boxes are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida. For more information about Hebert's Boxes, see Hebert Box. See graphic below which illustrated the Hebert's Boxes.
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Hebert's Boxes
Manatee County? Few people to evacuate...
Thanks for your local update. We’re getting rather steady rain with intermittent, brief t-storms.
I’ve got some big bay windows I’m going to board up but we’re taking a risk on the others too. Hoping the skylights stay intact. Roof is only 3 years old.
Not good.
Last I heard, Manatee County has more than 400,000 people. It has grown 30% in the past ten years. The most populous area of Manatee Co. is at the coast. The coast is where people need to evacuate.
One problem out there is water temp,lots of 88degree water, extremely warm.
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4
Jet fuel for Ian before and after Cuba.
But it’s less populous than Tampa.
If the damn thing is gonna land somewhere, better fewer people at risk than more.
That’s why I was liking the Big Bend landfall. Now, the best case is south of Naples, but that’s real bad news for Key West. And a few more ticks to the north and east and that’s a possibility.
yeah for sure.
Tampa is NE of coastal Manatee. There is no Tampa Beach along the GOM. Tampa is on the bay, in a bowl. St. Petersburg borders the Gulf of Mexico, west of Tampa.
Praying for everyone down there in the path of Ian.
Hopefully, the Weather Terrorists are wrong about the intensity. They do go so far overboard on TWC.
Hoping my niece and nephew in Orlando will be safe.
They’ve been hit hard a couple of times, but now there are no longer any big trees near their house!
I just was looking at a topo map of the area.
Prayers for all in harm’s way.
St Petersburg borders west Tampa Bay. St Pete Beach is on the Gulf as is Clearwater.
Right. In a nutshell, Tampa’s danger is not winds from a hurricane landfall. It is storm surge in the bowl, overflowing the bay into the city.
Facts + Statistics: Hurricanes
Check out the table on fatalities.
...stats...
Yes, Tampa Bay is very shallow. It don’t take much to flood the entire bay shore from St Pete all the way around to Apollo Beach. North Tampa Bay has many choke points. The Hillsborough River will likely run backwards.
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