Posted on 09/10/2022 9:56:26 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
As Ed Morrisey pointed out this morning, the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the east has been moving faster than anyone expected, including obviously the Russians. A couple of days ago, Ukrainian forces retook the town of Balakliia and another small town called Volokhiv Yar. From there they moved east and took control of Kupyansk.
Ukrainian troops already in Kupyansk.
Russians basically offered no resistance.
pic.twitter.com/4c2UqjEk1w— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 10, 2022
That was a significant win because it meant Ukraine was in control of the rail lines which supplied Russian outposts to the south, in particular Izyum. Here’s a crude map showing the location of Kupyansk and Izyum.
I tweeted this map a few days ago. Kupyansk is the yellow circle, and Izyum the red circle. By taking K the Ukr cut off the logistics to Izyum making it undefendable.
pic.twitter.com/ZCEwdRWQ8C— Dr Mike Martin 🔶 (@ThreshedThought) September 10, 2022
Saturday, Ukrainian forces surrounded and retook Izyum.
Ukrainian special forces pictured on the outskirts of Izium…🇺🇦
pic.twitter.com/RpIlqypZMX— Jimmy (@JimmySecUK) September 10, 2022
Ed noted in an update to his story earlier that Izyum had been liberated and only 24 hours after Russia claimed it was sending reinforcements to the area it reversed course and claimed it was “regrouping” its forces to the south. Regrouping in this case means running away as quickly as possible. Here’s the video of the Russian announcement.
This is the russian MoD acknowledging the withdrawal from Kharkiv and the strategically important cities of Izyum & Kupyansk. The straight face during the lie of ‘regrouping of forces’ is priceless. pic.twitter.com/yAKpd32s72
— Mattia Nelles (@mattia_n) September 10, 2022
This is already being widely mocked. Same clip but with a different background.
You don’t need translation here pic.twitter.com/9fRVMiYXlx
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 10, 2022
The Post has a story up about all of the developments.
As the advancing Ukrainian troops regained lost territory with shocking speed, liberating the town of Balakliya and raising their blue-and-yellow flag over the city of Izyum, jubilant Ukrainians and officials in Kyiv and Western capitals indulged in a daring hope: maybe the grinding, stalemated war was swinging their way…
The pullout from Izyum, which Russia had used as a resupply hub for its offensive through the eastern Donbas region, marked one of the biggest setbacks for Russia since its troops rolled into Ukraine in February.
With Russian troops out of Izyum, Russia’s ability to fulfill its objective of seizing the entirety of the Donbas region — the only publicly declared goal of Putin’s proclaimed “special military operation” — is now in doubt, said Kirill Mikhailov, a Kyiv-based analyst with the Conflict Intelligence Team, a Russian military research group.
Izyum is an important command and supply hub for Russia’s northern front and Russia’s only major bridgehead on the right bank of the Donets River, he said, and losing it would eliminate an entire front — the northern front — in its efforts to conquer Donetsk.
One sure sign of how badly things are going for Russia is how spitting mad Russian nationalists have become over these defeats.
“A major defeat,” Igor Girkin, a hard-line former commander of separatists in Ukraine, lamented in a pro-Russian military Telegram channel…
Girkin complained bitterly about extravagant celebrations for City Day in Moscow, where Putin visited a new martial arts center and presided over the openings of a section of new highway and a giant, 460-foot tall Ferris wheel called the Moscow Sun.
Here’s Putin opening the Ferris wheel while his army is in retreat.
While the #Russian army "heroically" retreats from the #Kharkiv region, Putin opens a Ferris wheel in #Moscow.
The tsar simply has more important things to do. pic.twitter.com/RI9ng9y8TH
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) September 10, 2022
And, in what seems like a perfect metaphor for the day, the Ferris wheel apparently broke down a few hours later.
The Ferris Wheel that Putin opened in Moscow this morning? It’s already broken…
— The Intel Crab (@IntelCrab) September 10, 2022
There’s definitely going to be a lot of pressure mounting on Putin after all of these sweeping victories and Russian retreats. The question becomes what will a desperate Putin do now that his invasion is looking like an embarrassment? Open source intelligence analyst Oliver Alexander suggests he could actually become more dangerous than before.
At this time the Russian military has just about run out of options in regards to throwing new forces at this growing hole in an attempt to stop the offensive.
At this point even a "mobilization" won't do anything to help, that takes time and this is moving too fast.
— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) September 10, 2022
He could ramp up the economic war on Europe which he’s been fighting by cutting of the gas supply.
Russia is responsible for supplying 20% of Europe's natural Uranium and 26% of their enrichment services. This will have a compounding effect on the already high energy prices.
— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) September 10, 2022
Both of these options are economically nuclear options, as they will also have a large impact on Russia, but Putin is running very low on options.
— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) September 10, 2022
The bottom line is that he’s not going to admit defeat. He’s going to find some way to up the stakes after what is shaping up to be a very bad weekend.
Personally, I see Russia as more dangerous at this moment than any time in the last 7 months. They are cornered, crippled both militarily and economically and running very low on options.
This won't end with Putin just graciously accepting defeat.
— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) September 10, 2022
Two clips to wrap this up. First, another Russian intercept giving some idea of what it was like to be on the other side of the Ukrainian couteroffensive.
Second, this collection of clips from Russian TV gives you an idea of how the nationalists are responding to the bad news. This clip ends with Putin’s top propagandist, TV presenter Vladimir Solovyov, reminding the audience that Stalin said those who panic should be shot.
Russian state TV mouthpieces–big couch potato imperialist supporters of Putin’s “special operations” against Ukraine–are demoralized and in a state of panic.
When Solovyov ends by quoting Josef Stalin: “The ones who panic should be shot,” you know they realize this is serious. https://t.co/nLeJfyrDxq
— Thomas Wood 🌊 (@twoodiac) September 10, 2022
pushing the idea that it takes many years to be on a howitzer crew.
—
I’m trying to tell you in Russia it does.
I must have been one heck of an instructor.
So you taught artillery to Russians in Russia?
You are really an obsessed kind of guy, to the extent of being weird.
I’ve tried to tell you, to believe what you believe, as someone who took guys straight from 8 weeks in the army and they were our gun crews as we trained them, I have the opinion that it doesn’t take many years to teach someone to be a cannon cocker.
You have a point you want to hammer, keep hammering it, but I think it is a weak point that you keep pushing so hard, you could be a little less dramatic and repetitive with it, and I didn’t realize that making a simple suggestion to you would turn into me being bothered with your obsessive personality and endless posts.
Yep hammer it because it is misinformation and untrue for Russian artillery men - you just do not understand - no matter what your American experience may have been, it is not pertinent.
Yes. It completely sucks, but Putin will be the one held responsible by both sides.
We all blame Bush for invading Iraq. Both sides supported going in. The Dems even had a revote in congress so they could vote FOR it.
Quagmires have that effect on people.
Yes. It completely sucks, but Putin will be the one held responsible by both sides.
We all blame Bush for invading Iraq. Both sides supported going in. The Dems even had a revote in congress so they could vote FOR it.
Quagmires have that effect on people.
” planning to re-take Izyum in the very near future”
LOL - slime like you do tend to move the goalposts
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
