Posted on 07/09/2022 9:02:01 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Well, my my my. The reports of Herschel Walker’s political death in Georgia may turn out to be exaggerated after all — may, I emphasize. A recent Quinnipiac poll showed the football star-turned-Republican Senate nominee down ten points to incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock, 45/55. However, Democratic pollster Data for Progress sees the race very differently, even with the recent scandals surrounding Walker:
A survey by Data for Progress conducted between July 1 and July 6, exclusively shared with The Daily Beast, shows Walker narrowly leading Warnock by 49 percent to 47 percent. Both candidates fell into negative favorability ratings, as Walker received a -3 favorability while Warnock received a -7.
The Georgia Senate seat is one of Democrats’ top priorities this year as they hope to maintain power in Congress’s upper chamber. But with the party forecast to face massive headwinds during the midterm elections while President Joe Biden’s favorability continues to spiral, Democrats in Georgia, like many other states, could be facing an uphill battle.
One problem with scoping out the true status of this race is how little polling we actually have on it, despite its high profile in these midterms. RCP has Warnock up 1.6 points with data that includes the recent Quinnipiac poll, but that’s based on five polls with data stretching back into mid-January. We’ve only seen two polls in June, with ECU showing a straight-up tie at 46-all and the Q-poll’s ten-point Warnock lead.
It seems very interesting indeed that Democratic pollster sees the Walker-Warnock race more pessimistically than either Quinnipiac or ECU. And there may be a reason for it, although the pollster probably would disagree with its implications:
Though the latest poll shows Warnock down from those previous numbers, Data for Progress founder Sean McElwee told The Daily Beast he sees it as “a more accurate reading of the race,” noting their research shows Republicans are invested in economic issues this cycle while Democrats continue to focus on party values.
Really? That’s not what polling data shows, at least nationally. Democrats are nearly as focused on economic issues in this cycle, and hardly focused at all on “party values,” whatever that means. Quinnipiac’s survey showed Georgia Democrats prioritizing gun control, racial inequality, and abortion ahead of inflation, so McElwee may be correct for the moment on this particular state. But if inflation continues to run hot into September and erode buying power, how long before Georgia Democrats start putting it first?
And take a look at the breakdown on the issue question in the Q-poll, too:
Democrat voters might be focused on “party values,” but hardly any other demo is. Among women, nearly three times as many are prioritizing inflation over abortion, and almost double over their next-highest priority of “gun violence.” Inflation gets even higher priority among college graduates, almost four times as many respondents than abortion and three times as many as election laws. Democrats and black voters are the only two demos without solid pluralities prioritizing inflation, and the latter only barely as gun violence (28%) edges out inflation (25%).
And that’s in the sample that gave Warnock a ten point lead, too.
Meanwhile, Data for Progress has the other marquee race firmly in Republican hands:
The gubernatorial race between Democratic nominee for governor Stacey Abrams and Republican incumbent Brian Kemp is not nearly as close, according to the poll. The survey found 53 percent of respondents said they’d vote for Kemp compared to only 44 for Abrams. Kemp also had a +3 favorability rating, compared to Abrams’ -9.
Quinnipiac had this at a tie, which is at least proportional to these poll results. It doesn’t appear that Abrams is making much of an impression on voters in Georgia even in Dem-leaning surveys despite her longer electoral history in the state. Of course, it might be because of her electoral history and track record of denying official election results, which was a popular position to take in 2018 but somehow became insurrection-y in 2020. It doesn’t appear that Democrats’ focus on “party values” is helping Abrams out in the gubernatorial race.
This points up another dynamic that is worth considering. Abrams and Warnock largely pitch to the same voter base. Kemp and Walker are pitching to two very different markets. Walker is riding on support from Donald Trump and the MAGA wing of the GOP while Kemp has been very unpopular among that crowd, at least until recently. Yet both Republicans seem to be doing well enough to gain leads in surveys conducted by this Dem-leaning pollster, which looks to me like Republican voters in Georgia are leaving 2020 behind and focusing on the present and the future. That’s bad news for Georgia Democrats even outside of specific polling results.
Given that dynamic, the fact that pollsters routinely underestimate Republican support in Georgia (the 2020 runoffs being a notable exception), and the amplitude of the red wave coming in these midterms, I’d guess that both Walker and Kemp are doing even better than we see here. For the moment, anyway.
We are all worried about that.
I am concerned that Raffenberger won the primary.
He shut right up about election integrity after the primaries.
I voted for Hice and in November the rat will not get my vote.
Kemp will, I think he’s a political coward but he didn’t cave on covid and I didnt have to skip a beat financially.
We/me actually did really well when the blue states shut down.
“Therefore, the dim party and lib media will continue top employ gaslighting and latest fake news story distraction to get suburban moms or whoever to forget about how shitty democraps have made their lives.”
They will talk about anything other than the economy. When the economy is this bad, that won’t work.
“Not good if Kemp wins.”
Another Free Republic Assistant Democrat shows up. Your buddies Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Heels up Harris and Joe Biden agree with you, they want Big Mama Abrams to win also.
“Georgians will tell you it’s a disaster if Kemp loses”
It’s about a lot more than Georgia.
Kemp and Georgia have given us the steal and the present constitutional crisis and disaster we face now.
Kemp. Absolute scum.
So you prefer Stacy?
Kemp is not assistant Democrat he is active in putting this illegitimate federal government in place.
Actively, purposely.
Spare us your lies and obfuscations.
“So you prefer Stacy?”
100%
Kemp is scum.
He must lose or we are in trouble.
He is worse than any democrat because he works against us pretending to be on one side when he is not.
If you support Kemp you endorse the steal, the deep state, Brandon and the destruction of the U.S.
Abrams can be dealt with.
Kemp is enemy within.
Much more dangerous.
Any poll that has Kemp and Abrams tied (I.e. the Q poll showing Herschel down by 10) is garbage and can be ignored. Warlock was, by definition in a 50-50 Senate, the deciding vote on the stupid Rat spending bills that have created the devastating inflation and he will be held to account for that. Herschel has his share of personal issues but they are coming out early and Warlock is no saint either. Herschel will win comfortably in a GOP wave year.
I don’t know if you live in Georgia but Kemp is head and shoulders above Abrams and Herschel Walker is far better than Warnock. . Walker won because he is popular and Democratic cross over voting. Abrams wins I believe Democrats may retain control of Senate. In my view Kemp is a good governor.
Trash Georgia because you don’t like Kemp? Move to California and deal with Newsome for s since it is so easy.
People that actually have to work for a living disagree.
Well… suck it up, because he’s going to win.
Dominion
Governor Punk and his filthy AG
A Kemp win would be far better than Abrams at least for those with any common sense.
That’s just pathetic.
Far worse if abrams wins.
The dailybeast wants you back.
Warlock and Fat Alberta don’t really have a chance.
Shrek fetterperson and shapiro don’t really have a chance.
Murkowski , hassan Masto and Kelly don’t really have a chance.
The fake media will pump out fake polls to artificially respirate these maggots but their efforts will really only be to make believe these are genuine horse races which they are not and never were.
To believe otherwise is to be called upon to prove that Joey’s 30% approval over all 56% with Blacks and underwater mark by 12 points with Hispanics mean nothing.
If you think things look bad for the rodents now in July without a single platform issue on the right side with voters - understand that these days now will be looked back at as the Democrat/communists “good old days.”
And supporting abrams isn't supporting the deep state and brandon????
Dude, put down the crack pipe.
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