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No recession ahead: Evercore ISI predicts S&P 500 will jump 22% from current levels
Fast Money ^ | 5/24/22 | Stephanie Landsman

Posted on 05/25/2022 3:47:05 AM PDT by EBH

While retail investors head for the exits as stock prices sharply fluctuate, Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel wants to put money to work.

He calls the market environment very ugly, but he believes the economy will avert a recession — particularly due to healthy credit markets and continued gains.

“The path to higher [stock] prices really is a function of being able to discount the macro news and focus on the fact that you’re still going to have mid-to-high, single-digit earnings growth,” the firm’s senior managing director told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Tuesday.

His S&P 500 year-end target is 4,800, which implies a 22% jump from the Tuesday market close. Emanuel contends much of the market losses were driven by retail investors who were overexposed to growth stocks, namely in Big Tech.

“The bull case rests on essentially a drying up of the public selling of these stocks,” he said.

According to Emanuel, retail investors will return to stocks when they figure out employment remains strong and inflation is peaking. He expects that to happen later this summer.

“When things turn down, that will be a more benign environment for the equity markets,” said Emanuel.

His forecast also hinges on the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield cooling and ending the year at 3%. On Tuesday, the yield fell to its lowest level in more than a month.

Emanuel is most bullish on health care and sees solid upside for long-term investors. He’s also overweight in financials and industrials.

“The shift from growth to value is something that’s ongoing,” Emanuel said.

Video at link: 7:47


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Unclassified
KEYWORDS: bidennomics; skittles; unicorns
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To: Cletus.D.Yokel

**Any relation to Rahm Emanuel?**

If not blood relation, likely politically the same family.


41 posted on 05/25/2022 6:38:37 AM PDT by Zuriel (Acts 2:38,39....Do you believe it?)
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To: EBH
Nobody can predict what the stock market will do in the short term. The worst thing one can do is panic and sell on a downturn. This happened right after "COVID" hit in March 2020. People got scared and started bailing out of stocks only to see them skyrocket to 20% plus gains for the year (2020). If you remember, many were predicting the entire economy would collapse as the "COVID" lockdowns continued.

I personally know somebody who retired around that time and is kicking himself for moving all his retirement assets out of stocks. He locked in a six-figure loss and then lost out on all the gains afterwards. Now he may be forced to go back to work to make up the shortfall. Had he stayed put, he'd be in good shape, even in the current downturn.

42 posted on 05/25/2022 6:38:43 AM PDT by SamAdams76 (3,079,537 active users on Truth Social)
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To: EBH

well, if dollars are worthless, expect everything to be “worth more dollars.”


43 posted on 05/25/2022 6:46:17 AM PDT by cuban leaf (My prediction: Harris is Spiro Agnew. We'll soon see who becomes Gerald Ford, and our next prez.)
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To: Eccl 10:2

I hope they do the same with fuel prices. I need to fill my 250 gallon “site tank”. Last time I filled it I paid $2.05 per gallon. I’m almost out.


44 posted on 05/25/2022 6:47:39 AM PDT by cuban leaf (My prediction: Harris is Spiro Agnew. We'll soon see who becomes Gerald Ford, and our next prez.)
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To: Cletus.D.Yokel

Agreed. The printing machines will go into overtime before November. That will find its way into the stock market one way or the other. Just a matter of when and how much.


45 posted on 05/25/2022 6:59:59 AM PDT by Eccl 10:2 (Prov 3:5 --- "Trust in the Lord with all your heart, and lean not on your own understanding")
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To: Eccl 10:2

If you look back at the last 2 DEM administrations and chart the market v. “fiat-money issues, you will see the market surging each time.
It’s how they kept the market in such a good ‘mood’ all these years.
Again, 2008 was a banner year for fiat-cash.

It can be “verified” by how it shrunk at the start of Trump’s admin but then surged due to the freeing of actual real money/cash by policy direction, not by cash-pumping.

Ask your self why the market stayed so buoyant when COVID limited the labor force and industry?
Unaccounted-for COVID Relief $$ printed by the Fed.
And, 10% for the big guy.


46 posted on 05/25/2022 7:09:28 AM PDT by Cletus.D.Yokel (Islam is NOT a religion of any sort. It is a violent and tyrannical system of ruling others.)
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To: ClearCase_guy

ClearCase_guy - We’ve seen this BS narrative before. Seems like you and I are the only ones who recognize it for what it is - I guy who is long the market and it’s eating him alive - not just his personal investment, but probably hundreds of clients who are threatening to sell out at whatever loss in order to salvage SOMETHING at the close of business today. My virtually non-existent 401K was totally f***ed following the great 9/11 sell-off in 2001. It lost 40% in the blink of an eye. I finally woke up to the stockbroker’s lies and converted to cash to save most of my original investment. It took 7 years to regain those lost profits and BANG the market tanks over the sub-prime lending crisis of 2008. Only slightly wiser, I took a 30% hit before I could convert to cash - all the while, big name brokers and economists telling people like me that we were stupid to sell - we were sure to re-coup our losses if we would only “Stay invested.” That wasn’t well-meaning advice for me or anyone else. It was a CYA bulls**t advice to save the Broker’s ass. Certainly not mine.


47 posted on 05/25/2022 10:07:54 AM PDT by torqemada (BIDEN IS NOT MY PRESIDENT #RESIST)
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To: EBH

Not buying this theory


48 posted on 05/25/2022 10:37:01 AM PDT by ridesthemiles
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