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How to end the Ukraine war --- A negotiated agreement remains elusive because the US has not supported it while encouraging Ukrainian resistance
asiatimes.com ^ | May 14, 2022 | Stephen Bryen

Posted on 05/16/2022 1:23:17 PM PDT by elpadre

What are the possible outcomes of the Ukraine war?

Russian Withdrawal: Russia could decide to cut its losses and abandon the fight in Ukraine. It is unlikely that the current Russian leadership will do so, but there is no guarantee that Vladimir Putin will remain Russia’s leader.

If there is an internal upheaval in the Kremlin, then a new leader, even if a hardliner, could decide to pull out, blame the debacle on Putin, and, as they say, rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic.

Go All Out: A second, dreadful possibility is that the Russians, who anyway think they are at war with NATO, could take more extreme action along a possible front that stretches from the Baltic to the Black Sea.

Right now it would seem that Russia is in no condition to prosecute a wider war, but Russia could gamble that by raising the stakes it could push Europe to split from the United States and promote a bigger political deal that might or might not cover Ukraine.

For example, Russia could get a guarantee from the Europeans of no NATO in Ukraine. Any of the European powers could also give such a guarantee unilaterally, but so far because of US pressure won’t for now. But that could change.

Continue the War: Russia can decide to tough it out and keep up the pressure on Ukraine, accepting heavy casualties and equipment losses as part of the bargain. The downside of this approach is that Russia will end up far weaker in the end, and the prize, if one wants to call it that, is hardly worth the expenditure.

Moreover, the ability of Russia to mobilize support internally given their heavy losses could backfire on Russia’s leaders and chase them from power. All kinds of accusations are .......

(Excerpt) Read more at asiatimes.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
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1 posted on 05/16/2022 1:23:17 PM PDT by elpadre
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To: elpadre

more from article: “....Still, while the Ukrainians have continued to hold out, the real reason a negotiated agreement has been so elusive is because the United States has not supported it and has encouraged Ukrainian resistance....”

and Uncle Joe has been the “sugar daddy” for all things Ukrainian.


2 posted on 05/16/2022 1:25:49 PM PDT by elpadre (W)
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To: elpadre

Biden and his handlers want to keep this going. They’re not interested in a settlement. They think the Ukraine/Russia conflict is a distraction from Biden’s overwhelming incompetence.

Fortunately, they’re wrong.


3 posted on 05/16/2022 1:28:12 PM PDT by Signalman
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To: elpadre
... accepting heavy casualties and equipment losses as part of the bargain.

4 posted on 05/16/2022 1:29:20 PM PDT by Berlin_Freeper
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To: elpadre

Author has a serious ignorance problem. Look for mass surrender of Uki forces within the next two or three weeks.


5 posted on 05/16/2022 1:30:13 PM PDT by ganeemead
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To: Signalman

I hope they’re wrong. The resident is on his way to Buffalo to chase after some kind of political benefit off the loss of lives there. Meanwhile the kin of the Buffalo shooter are surrendering at Avostal. Wonder if slo joe and the ho see the irony. Probably not.


6 posted on 05/16/2022 1:30:41 PM PDT by scottinoc
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To: ganeemead
Author has a serious ignorance problem. Look for mass surrender of Uki forces within the next two or three weeks.

There have been an awful lot of predictions from the pro-Russian side regarding the imminent defeat of Ukraine, each one having been proven false as time goes by. Why is yours any different?

7 posted on 05/16/2022 1:33:27 PM PDT by Bruce Campbells Chin
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To: elpadre

The Biden admin, the media, Soros, etc., are willing to fight to the last Ukranian.


8 posted on 05/16/2022 1:35:09 PM PDT by Prolixus (In all seriousness:)
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To: scottinoc

This is where Trump comes in. He’d be a fair arbitrator. No one likes him. It would make the current POTUS look bad but we’re talking war here.


9 posted on 05/16/2022 1:35:42 PM PDT by DIRTYSECRET
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To: elpadre
The U.S. should not push for any resolution of this war that rewards the aggressor by letting it claim victory. It also shouldn't be one that changes the pre-war balance of power moving forward in Russia's direction, or they'll just try to finish the job in a few more years.

Also, the problem with making some kind of elections or self-determination the basis for resolving territorial disputes doesn't work given Russia's institutionalized deportation of Ukrainians from occupied areas. That's just Russia stacking the deck.

10 posted on 05/16/2022 1:42:32 PM PDT by Bruce Campbells Chin
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To: Signalman

“Biden and his handlers want to keep this going. They’re not interested in a settlement. They think the Ukraine/Russia conflict is a distraction from Biden’s overwhelming incompetence.”

If the war ends it will be a lot more difficult for our elected representatives to launder $40 billion back to themselves.


11 posted on 05/16/2022 1:48:08 PM PDT by suthener ( )
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To: Bruce Campbells Chin

What do you work for Defense contractor looking to make billions of bucks in a war?


12 posted on 05/16/2022 1:48:31 PM PDT by rottweiller_inc (inter canem et lupumWell for me I think we shouldn’t have gotten involved in the first place I think)
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To: Signalman

Putin wants yo keep this going. The waf ends the moment Putin pulls out his horde.


13 posted on 05/16/2022 1:50:49 PM PDT by Cronos
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To: elpadre
Dan Crenshaw basically gave away the strategy when he said that the US is investing $40 Billion without having to use American troops.

In the minds of the Democrat/NeoCon government, this is truly a proxy war, and they are determined to take out Putin. Of course, in typical fashion, they have no idea what lies beyond.

But if the past is any indication, from what we've seen in Afghanistan, Iraq, the Arab Spring and Libya, our track record with regime change is not very good.

14 posted on 05/16/2022 1:51:53 PM PDT by Repealthe17thAmendment
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To: elpadre

Last I heard Russia still demands Ukraine demilitarize and put neutrality in their constitution. As long as they’re remaining entrenched on those issues there’s not much to negotiate.


15 posted on 05/16/2022 1:54:19 PM PDT by discostu (like a dog being shown a card trick)
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To: ganeemead; elpadre

Ganeemead on 30th April https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4059233/posts?page=22#22

“Women and kids?? Because that’s all that’s gonna be left over there in two or three weeks after all the men of Marriageable age have been blown up.”

Three weeks later and nope.

___________________

Ganeenead on 11th April

https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4054049/posts?page=35#35

“What are all you nato shills gonna do two weeks from non when ukraine surrenders”

Ukraine didn’t surrender on 25th April


16 posted on 05/16/2022 1:55:26 PM PDT by Cronos
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To: Prolixus

The ukrare willing to fight to the last Ukrainian.

Why?

The alternative is that they get assimilated into Russia.

Ukrainians aren’t fighting and dying for Zelensky or Biden. They are fighting for their homes and loved ones.


17 posted on 05/16/2022 1:57:41 PM PDT by Cronos
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To: ganeemead

[Author has a serious ignorance problem. Look for mass surrender of Uki forces within the next two or three weeks.]


https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4054049/posts?page=35#35
[4/11/2022, 8:43:14 AM · 35 of 88
ganeemead to marcusmaximus

What are all you nato shills gonna do two weeks from non when ukraine surrenders and they hang that sick pervert Zelenski??]


18 posted on 05/16/2022 1:57:46 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room.)
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To: Bruce Campbells Chin

Well, because he’s so certain about it. That’s how it’s different. Isn’t it obvious?


19 posted on 05/16/2022 2:01:39 PM PDT by Kevmo (Give back Ukes their Nukes https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4044080/posts)
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To: Cronos

Well, 3rd time is the charm, right?


20 posted on 05/16/2022 2:04:12 PM PDT by Kevmo (Give back Ukes their Nukes https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4044080/posts)
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