17,000 NLAWS have arrived in the Ukraine over the past week.
That is a game changer. Tanks are now like battleships. Targeted dinosaurs.
The number of MANPADS arriving is also staggering.
All of this really changes the force projections.
I posted this on a Taiwan thread, it also applies here:
Taiwan should develop its own nukes if at all possible, certainly they have the tech knowhow, but it might not be possible to do it in secrecy in the time available.
But they should as rapidly as possible adopt the Swiss national defense model, and arm every capable adult citizen with a modern scope-equipped battle rifle. Then begin universal marksmanship and small unit / guerrilla tactics training.
Taiwan can also mass-produce their own modern MANPAD SAMs and ATGMs, and cache them all over the island. Then give citizens training on how to use them effectively, using video instruction and hands-on inert simulators, so they are ready when the time comes.
Taiwan is 20X bigger than Okinawa. It has 10,000 foot mountains, canyons and caves all over the place. It took the full might of the US Army, Navy and Marines 3 months to subdue Okinawa in 1945, so imagine the difficulty of conquering Taiwan, with a sniper, MANPAD and ATGM squad around every corner. Taiwan could rapidly be made more difficult to invade than it would be worth to the CCP.
Will its leaders do this? Probably not. Politicians don’t want an armed citizenry, lest they turn on them at some point. America, Switzerland and only a few other countries are exceptions to this rule.
Even Ukraine did not adopt this “porcupine strategy” in the face of a looming Russian invasion. So even after the invasion, most Ukrainian men had never touched a firearm in their lives. It’s too much of a learning curve to go from non-shooter to soldier in a week.
That is a game changer. Tanks are now like battleships. Targeted dinosaurs.
The number of MANPADS arriving is also staggering.
All of this really changes the force projections.
Putin never thought that West would respond in this manner. He screwed up big time and is now trying to squirm out.