I posted this on a Taiwan thread, it also applies here:
Taiwan should develop its own nukes if at all possible, certainly they have the tech knowhow, but it might not be possible to do it in secrecy in the time available.
But they should as rapidly as possible adopt the Swiss national defense model, and arm every capable adult citizen with a modern scope-equipped battle rifle. Then begin universal marksmanship and small unit / guerrilla tactics training.
Taiwan can also mass-produce their own modern MANPAD SAMs and ATGMs, and cache them all over the island. Then give citizens training on how to use them effectively, using video instruction and hands-on inert simulators, so they are ready when the time comes.
Taiwan is 20X bigger than Okinawa. It has 10,000 foot mountains, canyons and caves all over the place. It took the full might of the US Army, Navy and Marines 3 months to subdue Okinawa in 1945, so imagine the difficulty of conquering Taiwan, with a sniper, MANPAD and ATGM squad around every corner. Taiwan could rapidly be made more difficult to invade than it would be worth to the CCP.
Will its leaders do this? Probably not. Politicians don’t want an armed citizenry, lest they turn on them at some point. America, Switzerland and only a few other countries are exceptions to this rule.
Even Ukraine did not adopt this “porcupine strategy” in the face of a looming Russian invasion. So even after the invasion, most Ukrainian men had never touched a firearm in their lives. It’s too much of a learning curve to go from non-shooter to soldier in a week.
The Chinese dont need to invade Taiwan. They can just blockade it by threatening commercial shipping and firing a few shots “across their bows”. Nothing is going in or out of Taiwan after that, unless the US organizes a “Malta convoy” and escorts it with the 7th Fleet. That will then be a game of chicken as to whether the US really wants to risk war with China, and vice versa.
Taiwan will fall, or not, to a struggle in the sea and sky. If China gains control of that, in battle or if the US just cedes it, Taiwan will fall. It cant survive a blockade.
That is a pretty good defense strategy.
I think Japan and South Korea also need to nuke up.
The Chinese push to build and field silos with ready to launch systems is one of the most impressive buildups anywhere.
240-400 nuclear weapons in total with about 150 ready to launch in 2019, now over 500 ready to launch in 2022. The aim to have 2000 by 2030.
Currently, we have 5600 nuclear warheads with around 1800 in ready to launch systems.
Russia possesses approximately 6,000 nuclear warheads as of 2022—the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world. Russia only has 1,625 nuclear weapons in so-called “deployed” status. As of February 26, 2022, Russian President has ordered his nuclear forces onto a higher deployment status, so the totality of these “deployed” weapons is probably now higher.