Posted on 02/28/2022 8:10:18 PM PST by Mariner
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 4, 2023
Russia conducted another Shahed-131/136 strike against Ukraine on May 4.
Russian officials are likely using the May 3 drone strike on the Kremlin to expand cancellations of parades for the May 9 Victory Day holiday.
The Kremlin is reportedly continuing its overhaul of domestic security organs.
US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines stated that Russian forces are likely unable to conduct a “significant offensive” in 2023 due to munitions and manpower shortages regardless of the success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Russia and India reportedly suspended efforts to trade in rupees.
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces made territorial gains south of Kreminna.
Ukrainian forces likely conducted a limited counterattack southwest of Bakhmut.
Russian forces continued ground attacks in and around Bakhmut and along the Avdiivka–Donetsk City line.
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast.
The Kremlin is attempting to increase the production quotas of military supplies despite reportedly lacking the necessary manpower.
Russian occupation authorities continue to announce new security measures in an effort to prevent partisan attacks in occupied territories.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-4-2023
https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1654410842819944449
Prigozhin showed fresh losses of Wagner PMC and blamed Shoigu and Gerasimov for them.
He says the ammunition shortage has reached 70% and seems to be on the verge himself.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1654388396184289282
They ask about the attitude towards Mr. Prigogine. The question in the context of the situation is strange. It is not Prigozhin that needs to be discussed, but the shortage of artillery ammunition among the warring units in Bakhmut. Only this matters. When there are no more Ukrainians capable of killing Ukrainians in the Bakhmut district (or better, in the entire DPR), then Prigozhin and any other character can be discussed. And now we desperately need shells.
and this is another source:
Removed from the post of Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, Colonel-General Mizintsev was the only one who fought against shell hunger, the head of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, believes.
“There was a large amount of unusable 4th category ammunition at the Far Eastern arsenals, this 4th category was carefully collected by Mizintsev: ammunition for ammunition, a cartridge case for a warhead, and so on, was completed, and from this ammunition he (Mizintsev) passed it on to us (PMC Wagner ), and to other units, everyone is well aware of this and still, I think, they are grateful to him for not losing people. When the shell hunger began, they began to give us about 30% of our applications, our applications - they are 5-6 times less than what is required according to the calculations taught at the General Staff,” Prigozhin said.
Yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin held a series of consultations with people from a close circle on possible options for introducing martial law in a number of regions of Russia. The president will continue similar consultations tomorrow, but he promised to make a decision next week. In addition to consultations, the President yesterday held a meeting via video link with representatives of the leadership of the power and military blocs. During the meeting, representatives of the military leadership expressed certain doubts that before May 9 it would be possible to gain full control over Artemovsk (Bakhmut). The obviously frustrated president did not have time to react to the sluggish arguments of the military, when the initiative was intercepted by the Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Nikolai Patrushev, who, having taken the floor, harshly reprimanded the military leadership.
Patrushev promised, which will personally force to answer all those who distribute promises in vain. The military reacted to the threats of the Secretary of the Security Council with a gloomy look and, as a result, directly admitted that Artemovsk (Bakhmut), if they could completely take control, then only in the second half of May. Patrushev expressed doubts about this and said that, in his opinion, the situation at the front was close to disaster. Further, the Secretary of the Security Council turned to Putin with a number of claims, reproaching the president that, despite all the warnings and the proposed opportunities to stabilize the situation at the front, the head of state refused to act reasonably and made the most stupid decisions, allowing the current crisis. Patrushev said that a year ago it was necessary to focus on holding the territories of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions of Ukraine that had been seized at that time and strengthening the defense of Crimea. Further, practically a quote from the Secretary of the Security Council: “And even better, there was no need to start the operation at all!”
Patrushev demanded an honest assessment from the military leadership of how great the possibility of losing control over all the occupied territories, including Crimea, is. Representatives of the military leadership confirmed this possibility, after which the Secretary of the Security Council said that, in his opinion, control would be partially lost both over the border with Ukraine and over the five regions bordering Ukraine (Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod, Voronezh and Rostov), FOR YEARS . Putin listened to Patrushev and closed the meeting. This is not the first, but one of the most serious disputes between the president and the secretary of the Security Council, which happened in front of witnesses.
https://t.me/generalsvr/1573
so far > 219k have read this (among them many in the Kremlin)
But I think Kadyrov won't send his people to death like Wagner does. He bluffs and makes loud statements to return to Russian agenda and public space.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1654552222145863680
They are really low on ammo.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 5, 2023
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) appears to have deprioritized the Bakhmut offensive in favor of preparing to defend against an anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive, putting the Wagner Group and Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin in a potentially difficult position.
Wagner’s continued persistence within Bakhmut is incongruent with the overall slow-down in the pace of Russian operations elsewhere in Ukraine as conventional Russian forces appear to largely be shifting focus to prepare to receive the much-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Recently dismissed former Deputy Minister of Defense for Logistics Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev is reportedly serving as deputy commander of the Wagner Group, likely as part of Wagner’s campaign to retain access to Russian military supplies.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu ordered newly-appointed Deputy Minister for Logistics Alexei Kuzmenkov to control the supply of weapons and equipment to Russian forces in Ukraine.
Russian occupation authorities announced the forced removal of 70,000 civilians in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast to areas deeper in the Russian-occupied rear under the guise of evacuations.
The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) proposed a draft bill aimed at appealing to growing anti-migrant sentiments in Russia and supporting the Russian military’s efforts to recruit migrants.
Russian Human Rights Council head Valery Fadeev reportedly stated that Russian authorities should regulate Telegram channels similarly to how Russia censors state-controlled media.
Russian forces conducted ground attacks near Kreminna and Avdiivka and made marginal gains within Bakhmut.
Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted limited counterattacks near Bakhmut.
The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) claimed it prevented a Ukrainian assassination attempt against an occupation deputy of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on May 5.
Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov continues his own personal force generation efforts aimed at securing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s favor.
Russian occupation authorities continue measures to strengthen social control of occupied territories.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-5-2023
REPORT ON VIOLATIONS AND ABUSES OF INTERNATIONAL HUMANITARIAN AND HUMAN RIGHTS LAW, WAR CRIMES AND CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY, RELATED TO THE FORCIBLE TRANSFER AND/OR DEPORTATION OF UKRAINIAN CHILDREN TO THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
The Mission concluded that numerous and overlapping violations of the rights of the children deported to the Russian Federation have taken place. Not only has the Russian Federation manifestly violated the best interests of these children repeatedly, it has also denied their right to identity, their right to family, their right to unite with their family as well as violated their rights to education, access to information, right to rest, leisure, play, recreation and participation in cultural life and arts as well as right to thought, conscience and religion, right to health, and the right to liberty and security. These are ongoing violations of Articles 3, 8, 9, 10, 12, 14, 17, 20, 21, 24, 28, 29, 31 and 37 (b) of the UNCRC. The cumulative effects of these multiple violations also give rise to very serious concerns that the rights of these children to be free from torture and ill-treatment and other inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment (Article 37 (a) of the UNCRC) have been violated. The Mission also concludes that the practice of the forcible transfer and/or deportation of Ukrainian children to the temporarily occupied territories and to the territory of the Russian Federation may amount to a crime against humanity of “deportation or forcible transfer of population”.
Ukraine Intercepts Hypersonic Kinzhal Missile! The First Confirmed Loss!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTor-u2yaZw
Ukraine has a lot of modern weapons now.
The trafficability forecast (below) is based on current and predicted rainfall which are well above normal for near the Line of Conflict (LoC). In general, trafficability is delayed about 1 month versus normal.
https://twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1650851710221295617
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 6, 2023
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov stated their intent on May 6 for Chechen “Akhmat” troops to replace Wagner Group forces in Bakhmut on May 10.
Prigozhin and Kadyrov likely aim to frame the Russian MoD and regular Russian troops as ineffective and set conditions to blame the MoD for any Russian setbacks in the Bakhmut area.
While the potential deployment of Akhmat troops to Bakhmut could increase Russian combat power to some degree, the claims made by Prigozhin and Kadyrov are greatly exaggerated.
The Russian MoD has yet to respond to Prigozhin and Kadyrov’s coordinated posturing about Bakhmut and may have been caught flatfooted by Prigozhin and Kadyrov’s statements.
At least one individual with claimed but unconfirmed affiliation to the Ukrainian government attempted to assassinate Russian “A Just Russia” State Duma party co-leader and prominent nationalist voice Zakhar Prilepin on May 6.
CNN reported that Russian electronic warfare (EW) jamming has limited the effectiveness of Ukrainian HIMARS strikes in recent months.
Russian forces continued limited offensive operations northeast of Kupyansk and in the Kreminna area.
Russian forces continued to make marginal gains within Bakhmut and Ukrainian forces likely conducted a successful limited counterattack southwest of Avdiivka.
Russian occupation officials claimed that Ukrainian forces targeted Crimea with Hrim-2 short-range ballistic missiles.
Ukrainian sources reported that Russian authorities are continuing various measures to forcibly mobilize residents of occupied areas of Ukraine.
Russian occupation officials continue to plan for mass forced evacuations in Zaporizhia Oblast.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-6-2023
Reporting from Ukraine: Ukrainians SURVIVE DREADFUL BOMBING AND GO ON FULL OFFENSIVE | War in Ukraine Explained
Day 437: May 06
The freshest reports indicate that maintaining the upper hand was not easy. At first, Ukrainians tried to develop their success and leverage the newly taken positions for further advancements, but the moment the weather improved, Russians unleashed their aviation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNJ1LajA6Go
I honestly didn’t expect to see Prigozhin become the top meme of 2023
https://twitter.com/cossackgundi/status/1654987622672916480
LOL!
Loe Blogs: Wagner Chief RAGES & Announces BAKHMUT Retreat on 10th May After Heavy Casualties
n this video I share with you video footage from the Founder of WAGNER accusing Russia of not providing AMMUNITION and Declaring that Wagner will RETREAT from Bakhmut on 10th May. The loss of the Wagner forces could have major repercussions for Russia in the ground offensive in Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7wWuuvWyug
1. Nighttime Ukrainian Bm-21 Grad salvo from a prepared firing position in the east.
2. And a daytime view.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1655022598969864192
https://twitter.com/PjotrSauer/status/1655138638005522433
However, this is Strelkov/Girkin:
At the request of readers, I comment on Prigozhin’s “unexpected joy” in relation to the fact that they gave him shells, covered his flanks, “gave carte blanche” for any actions, and Surovikin was appointed “looking” from the Moscow Region.
1). “At the circus arena - All the same.”
- Surovikin, who distinguished himself by a brilliant de-escalation from near Kyiv, and then by the “Difficult Decision” (that is, the surrender of Kherson without a fight).
- Shoigu (who has not gone anywhere, as well as Gerasimov);
- Prigozhin-Nedobakhmutsky himself (aka “Veselchak U”) - a recognized master of “meat assaults”, who managed to advance at the cost of huge unjustified losses by about 15-20 kilometers in half a year.
That is, they will continue to fight just as mediocre and bloody (and, therefore, just as “alternatively successful”) as before. Unless - even those crumbs of ammunition that were given earlier will be taken away from someone in order to transfer them to the fighters of the Black Clown (from which they stubbornly “mould and mold Napoleon”, but the trouble is - it doesn't work out in any way, because the material is shit ...)
2) “Dozhmut” Bakhmut or not - now it does not matter in the slightest. At all. Unless - for the future political career of Prigogine himself. Yes, and it is extremely problematic in the context of the upcoming military events.
3) Soon we will be beaten. Because to beat the enemy in our winter-spring campaign “did not work out of the word at all.”
Regular readers and listeners should remember the assessment of the situation that I laid out (and expressed) last winter. One of the theses was: “If by May the necessary nationwide measures for the successful conduct of the war are not taken, we will not be able to win this war.”
I state: NO MEASURES HAVE BEEN TAKEN. Neither organizational nor personnel. The goals of the war are not defined, the understanding that “this war - until the complete victory of one of the parties” - also did not arise among the inhabitants of the Pink Pony Planet. Accordingly, since there is no goal, there is no strategy. There is no strategy - there is no conscious work for its implementation. And the enemy initially has such a strategy and he implements it with all his might. More and more successfully, as the Kremlin “plays giveaway” with inexplicable rapture and childish confidence in the final “negotiation” comfortable for the elderly Ponies, Elephants and Unicorns.
Now we need to think about how to save the state, country and people in a situation of imminent military defeat.
And, yes, - even for a “worthy non-fatal defeat” (in which the enemies will be forced to abandon their plans for the complete fragmentation of Russia and the elimination of its sovereignty), it will be necessary to fight long and hard. Harder and longer than it could have been if they had initially fought with the goal of decisively winning. And the longer the inhabitants of the PRP will remain in the “sweet languor” of confidence in their calm and happy old age (which a significant part of the VIP officials have long come) - the less likely it is that, as a result, the state ship of Russia will be able to get out of the military storm and the systemic crisis, without sinking (after a long and bloody turmoil) into History.
Perun: Ukraine’s Planned Counteroffensive - force readiness, leaks, politics & expectations
The much expected Ukrainian 2023 counteroffensive (sequel to the well known trilogy in 2022 “Kyiv” “Kharkiv” & “Kherson”) has, alongside Bakhmut, been a major topic of speculation and discussion for months now. As a topic it is so heavily debated that there isn’t even agreement over whether or not it has started, is yet to start, or will never start at all.
For the most part, while some preparations are obvious, Ukraine has succeeded in keeping its actual plans secret, and even a leak of classified American documents did little to definitively answer the question of where and when Kyiv is likely to strike to attempt to reclaim the initiative after Russia’s Winter and early Spring efforts.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIYC_WUSw4c
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
